Bam nears return. How much could Herro get in contract extension? Some feedback, fallout
Heat center Bam Adebayo is nearing a return from right thumb surgery and is targeting Monday’s home matchup with Toronto as his first game back, ESPN reported Friday.
He has been seen shooting before games, wearing a splint on the thumb.
Adebayo was expected to miss four to six weeks after Dec. 5 surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament. A return on Monday would be six weeks after the procedure.
Erik Spoelstra declined on Friday to offer a timetable for Adebayo’s return.
“He’ll be back soon enough,” Spoelstra said, noting Adebayo did three workouts a day on the Heat’s recent road trip. “He’s making a lot of progress. He has been working and I know he badly he wants to be back out there. He is ready. As soon as he gets cleared, I don’t think there will be a major ramp-up because he has been able to work and do everything for an extended period of time. He needs the last [medical] go-ahead.”
Adebayo, an All-Star in 2020, is averaging 18.7 points and 10.2 rebounds this season. He has missed 20 games because of the injury and will miss a 21st on Friday night against Atlanta and a 22nd on Saturday against Philadelphia.
The Heat is 13-7 during his absence.
With Jimmy Butler planning to play on Friday, Monday could mark the first game that Adebayo, Butler and Kyle Lowry play together since Nov. 27. Butler has missed the past three games with an ankle injury.
HERRO EXTENSION
As Tyler Herro continues to blossom in this breakout season, a couple of things have become clear:
1. The Heat wasn’t delusional when a team official told Dan Le Batard that the organization viewed Herro as having an upside higher than Phoenix Suns two-time All Star guard Devin Booker’s.
2. Herro is going to get paid big this offseason, a contract that likely will send Miami well past the luxury tax line in two years.
Herro — under contract through next season — will become eligible to sign an extension anytime between the start of the new league year in July and the day before the regular-season opener next October. If he surprisingly doesn’t sign an extension, he would be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2023.
Let’s start with the on-court play. Herro’s numbers are the best offensively of any bench player in the league and not dramatically worse than Booker’s.
Herro entered Friday’s game against Atlanta averaging 20.7 points per game, 5.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists while shooting 42.9 percent from the field and 38.3 percent on threes, in 32.9 minutes per game.
Booker is averaging 23.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists while shooting 43.7 percent from the field and 40.6 percent on threes, in 32.8 minutes per game.
“Give the guy some credit for making a big leap in Year 3,” ESPN analyst JJ Redick said of Herro. “Tyler has made a big jump in usage percentage, from about 22 percent in his first two years to [28] percent this year. For reference, Nikola Jokic last year— the MVP — had about that usage. The other thing is he’s been such a good pick-and-roll operator getting to those spots. His ability to get to his spots and elevate [is impressive].
“And the third thing is his passing. He’s made a little bit of a leap each year with his passing. This year is no different. For him to be in the category of a Trae Young or Luka Doncic, it’s the playmaking part that has to continue to improve.”
Herro’s 20.7 scoring average ranks 22nd in the league and is tops among bench players. His 157 points off the bench were the most ever by an NBA player in the first seven games to start a season.
As for the contract, Herro will make $5.7 million in 2022-23 under any circumstances. But he’s eligible — after this season — to sign a deal worth as much as $181 million over five seasons, with a first-year salary (2023-24) of $31.2 million.
ESPN’s Bobby Marks, the former Nets front-office executive, noted that Herro can sign for five years — instead of four — only if he gets a max contract.
“I don’t think he’s getting that [a max deal] from Miami next offseason,” Marks said, via text message.
So what could Herro command if he plays at this level all season?
“Shooting is certainly a premium right now,” Marks said. “Average shooters are getting $17-$18 million right now. I think he’s north of $20 million. Different player but likely in that Mikal Bridges-type territory — four years, $90 million. Might be a little more.”
If Herro got the full max (highly unlikely), the Heat would be committed to pay $156.7 million to five players in 2023-24: Jimmy Butler ($45.2 million), Bam Adebayo ($32.6 million), Kyle Lowry ($29.7 million), Duncan Robinson ($18.2 million) and Herro ($31.2 million).
If Herro got a deal starting at $22 million, that would be $147.7 million committed to five players in 2023-24. Even if the remainder of the Heat roster signed minimum deals, that would still equate to a payroll topping $156 million.
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowksi reported that the projected 2023-24 cap is $119.2 million and tax is $144.9 million.
So even if the Heat surrounded those five players with mostly minimum deals, Miami still would pay a substantial luxury tax.
That doesn’t even factor in a potentially lucrative multiyear deal for Victor Oladipo if he plays well later this season after he returns from a knee injury. Nor does it factor in potential new deals for Max Strus, Omer Yurtseven and Gabe Vincent, who will be free agents in the summer of 2023.
Paying Oladipo a sizable amount in a multiyear deal — and giving decent contracts to Strus, Yurtseven and Vincent — would take the Heat into an enormous level of tax payment that only a handful of teams have been willing to pay, including Golden State, Brooklyn, the Lakers and Clippers. The Warriors are facing a $160 million tax bill this season; the Nets’ bill could top $110 million.
The Heat, throughout its history, has paid the luxury tax seven times, for a total of $52.9 million, according to spotrac.doc. Miami paid $14.4 million in luxury taxes in the final season of the LeBron James era, but just $2.5 million in seven years since.
The NBA utilizes a progressive tax system that includes dollar-for-dollar charges for teams less than $10 million over the threshold; $2.50 for every dollar if you’re $10 million to $15 million over, $3.25 for being $15 million to $20 million over.
The tax becomes particularly onerous if you’re a tax-paying team three times in four years. That’s one reason the Heat would like to avoid paying the tax this season; Miami is less than $200,000 under at this point.
So the question becomes whether the Heat would be comfortable paying the type of tax bill — tens of millions of dollars — that it never has had to pay before.
The Heat might do it if this team proves to be championship caliber. Otherwise, tough decisions await.
The most obvious way to lower a tax bill by 2023-24 would be offloading Robinson for an expiring contract next season. But the Heat values him, and it’s far too soon to explore that possibility.
Beyond determining how much to pay Herro when he becomes extension-eligible this summer, two other issues must be considered in the next 10 months, with regard to potential tax problems down the road:
1) How much will the Heat be willing to pay Oladipo in a multiyear deal this summer, knowing the contract could be worth double or triple that in terms of tax in 2023-24?
2) Would the Heat be reluctant to take on a player due big money through 2023-24 or beyond? Probably. Such a trade is unlikely anyway because Miami’s assets aren’t likely to be moved, except perhaps Robinson.
Regardless of any of this, it’s impossible to see the Heat parting with Herro if he continues playing like this. As always, the Heat and GM Andy Elisburg will figure it out.
But Herro’s play makes it likely that the Heat will need to either pay a big tax if it wants to keep, long-term, the surrounding players — Oladipo if he comes back strong from the knee injury and Strus, Vincent and Yurtseven if they keep improving.
Lowry’s deal expires after 2023-24. The Butler, Adebayo and Robinson contracts run through 2025-26, though only $9.8 million half of Robinson’s $19.9 million is guaranteed in 2025-26.
THIS AND THAT
As of midday Friday, Butler — who has missed three games with an ankle injury — was listed as questionable for Friday night’s home game against Atlanta. Still sidelined: Adebayo (thumb), Markieff Morris (neck), KZ Okpala (wrist), Marcus Garrett (protocols) and Oladipo (knee).
▪ Former Heat guard Mario Chalmers joined the Heat’s G League affiliate in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. He recently completed a 10-day contract with the Heat — as a COVID-19 fill-in player — but did not appear in a game.
This story was originally published January 14, 2022 at 11:41 AM.
