Where Miami Heat stands a week from trade deadline, what makes sense and what doesn’t
An NBA trade deadline often met with great anticipation for Heat fans could instead be met next Thursday with a collective shrug.
The Heat’s lack of plausible trade assets — combined with Tyler Herro blossoming this season and the fact the Heat has played very well amid a wave of injuries — makes it seemingly unlikely that Miami would pull off a significant deal before next Thursday’s trade deadline.
Here’s another factor in play: In past years, the Heat always had the ideal trade chip — sizable contracts for decent players who were not considered essential to the team but whose deals were rich enough financially to help facilitate a trade. Those contracts for James Johnson, Justise Winslow, Meyers Leonard and Kelly Olynyk were helpful pieces in previous deals.
The Heat has no player who would necessarily fit into that category on this roster.
You could make a strong case that Duncan Robinson would qualify for that based on his uneven play this season. But this wouldn’t necessarily be the time to trade him (with his value down), and the Heat needs his floor-spacing unless it’s convinced that Max Strus’ breakout is sustainable.
Plus, Robinson’s salary this season ($15.7 million) probably isn’t enough to land a disgruntled superstar earning big bucks.
But a minor Heat deal remains a possibility.
For example, the Heat could try to move KZ Ozpala and his $1.8 million salary before the trade deadline, according to a league source.
Dealing him for a future conditional second-round pick that likely would never be conveyed would allow the Heat to become a player in the buyout market, while maintaining the ability to convert Caleb Martin’s two-way deal into a standard deal by the end of the season (a move that’s inevitable), and stay under the luxury tax. So that type of deal, if available, makes sense.
If the Heat doesn’t trade anyone on the roster, Miami still could convert Martin’s two-way deal (thus making him playoff-eligible), but couldn’t add a player on the buyout market because the Heat has just one open spot on the 15-man roster.
But if the Heat deals Okpala with the intent of giving themselves more flexibility in the buyout market, there’s no clear-cut target at this point.
What about former Heat guard Goran Dragic?
Unlikely, even though he hasn’t been around the Raptors for two months and even though Toronto is shopping him.
Per NBA rules, Toronto would need to trade Dragic to another team and that team would need to release/buy out Dragic for Dragic to be eligible to sign with Miami this season. But even if a team acquiring Dragic releases him (quite possible), he’s reportedly expected to sign with Dallas.
What about a deal for Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal, who can become a free agent this summer? By all accounts, Beal isn’t being shopped. The Athletic reported this week that “for the first time in a long time, sources close to Beal indicate he’s not rejecting out of hand the notion of a trade elsewhere — even though his preference is to remain with the Wizards.”
The Heat always has liked him - and Beal previously expressed his admiration for the Heat - but such a trade would be difficult to justify because of Herro’s enormous growth and the pieces needed to make the trade work from a salary cap standpoint.
With Beal earning $33.7 million this season, the Heat would need to send out salaries for no less than $29.6 million if Washington surprisingly decided to trade him in the next week.
That could be achieved, hypothetically, with Robinson ($15.6 million), Herro ($4 million), P.J. Tucker ($7 million), Dwayne Dedmon ($2.6 million and can veto a trade) and Okpala ($1.8 million), plus at least one first-round pick (2027).
Miami is unable to trade any other first round picks unless OKC agrees to allow the Heat to lift protections on 2023 and 2025 first-round picks that are due the Thunder.
Besides stripping the Heat of three of their four best three-point shooters, such a hypothetical deal would leave the Heat paying a luxury tax that it hopes to avoid and needing to sign multiple players to minimum contracts to avoid surpassing the hard cap under which it must operate this season.
It’s simply not worth the trouble.
Plus, Herro has played so well that dealing two starters (including Tucker, who has been very good), and Herro and future first-round picks wouldn’t make sense. And making the deal without Tucker’s inclusion would be very, very difficult under cap restrictions.
Herro, 22, is averaging 20.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.0 assists on 42.6 percent shooting from the field and 37.1 percent on threes, in 33 minutes per game.
Beal, 28, who is out at least a week with a wrist injury, is averaging 23.2 points, 4.7 rebounds and 6.6 assists on 45.1 percent shooting from the field but just 30 percent on threes, in 36 minutes per game. His three-point shooting has plunged from past years; he’s a 37.2 percent career three-point shooter.
While Beal stands to get a new max deal this summer if he opts out as expected, Herro also become eligible for a big extension this summer.
It’s worth noting that Dedmon, Udonis Haslem and Victor Oladipo are the three Heat players on the roster who can veto trades. Everyone on the roster is trade eligible.
Kelly Iko, who covers the Rockets for The Athletic, recently reported that “Miami has been one of the more persistent teams in engaging with Houston on versatile big man [Christian Wood]. But barring a blow-me-away offer, Wood should remain in Houston past the deadline.”
Steve Bulpett, formerly of The Boston Herald and now with Heavy.com, also has reported Heat interest in Wood.
Wood, 26, is averaging 17.7 points and 10.3 rebounds per game.
He’s making $13.7 million this season and will earn $14.3 million next season in the final year of his contract.
A trade involving Robinson (who’s earning $15.6 million) and Wood would work within the cap, but I’m not sure why Houston would want the final 4 ½ seasons of Robinson’s five-year, $90 million deal.
And I’m not sure why the Heat would want to add another big - albeit a very good one - to a crowded power rotation.
A power forward and center, Wood is a 37 percent career three-point shooter.
Among players reportedly being shopped around the league: Indiana center Myles Turner, Minnesota guards Patrick Beverley and Malik Beasley, Nets forward Paul Millsap, Houston guard Eric Gordon, New York’s Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker, Washington guard Spencer Dinwiddie, Phoenix guard Dario Saric, Sacramento forward Harrison Barnes and Boston guard Denis Schroder.
INJURY UPDATE
Heat center Omer Yurtseven is out of health and safety protocols and rejoined the team in Charlotte, a move that makes Chris Silva ineligible to play on Saturday against the Hornets.
Caleb Martin (left Achilles’ soreness), P.J. Tucker (left knee irritation) and Max Strus (right quad contusion) are questionable for the game. Jimmy Butler (left big toe irritation) is probable.
Still out: Victor Oladipo, Markieff Morris and KZ Okpala. Oladipo is traveling with the team; Morris and Okpala are not.
Here are Heat notes from San Antonio and Charlotte today, including reaction from Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler on the All-Star announcements.
Here’s my Friday Miami Hurricanes 6-pack.
This story was originally published February 4, 2022 at 5:51 PM.
