How Dolphins could fill needs and a look at their cap if Watson is acquired now or later
Third of a 3-part series
If the Dolphins acquire disgruntled Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson before Tuesday’s trade deadline or during the offseason, would they have the flexibility to improve the roster around him considering the high draft picks that assuredly would be lost in making the proposed trade?
The short answer: yes.
But do they have the management capable of executing that plan? That’s dubious.
The Dolphins are set to have $79.4 million in cap space next spring, according to overthecap.com.
If they trade for Watson in the next day or next spring, that would remove $35 million of that space, leaving the Dolphins with $44.4 million in 2022 cap space.
But if the Dolphins trade their only 2022 first- and second-round picks in a Watson trade, the cap space allocation that Miami must use toward draft picks would be modest, less than $5 million.
(Miami’s first-rounder in 2022 is owned by the Eagles and their third-rounder is owned by the Giants. But the Dolphins have their own second-round pick and the 49ers’ first-round pick; plus a 49ers’ third-round pick; two picks in the fourth round (their own and Pittsburgh’s), a fifth-round pick and a seventh-round selection.
So the remaining cap space could be used on re-signing Emmanuel Ogbah or another defensive end; finding a better linebacker to play alongside Jerome Baker; acquiring a starting running back; re-signing Mike Gesicki or finding a new top tight end; and acquiring another receiver or two if the Dolphins move on from impending free agents Will Fuller and Albert Wilson. The offensive line must also be addressed.
That would seem far too much to accomplish with $44 million. (That compares with a minimum of $80 million in 2022 cap space if the Dolphins don’t trade for Watson.)
But the Dolphins can create far more than $44 million if they trade for Watson. Among the ways to do that:
▪ Restructuring Watson’s contract. By converting $16 million of Watson’s $35 million 2022 base salary into a signing bonus, that $16 million would be prorated for cap purposes ($4 million cap hit per year) over the final four years of his deal, which runs through 2025.
So instantly, Miami’s 2022 cap space would increase from $44 million to $58 million.
▪ If the Dolphins want to move on from DeVante Parker after this season, they can save $6.2 million in cap space (and his entire $5.7 million salary) by releasing him after June 1.
▪ The Dolphins can save another $16 million after the season by releasing Adam Butler ($3.75 million cap savings), Cethan Carter ($2.5 million cap savings), Allen Hurns ($3.2 million cap savings), Clayton Fejedelem ($2.8 million), Greg Little ($1.6 million) and Adam Shaheen ($1.9 million).
So if the Dolphins acquire and restructure Watson in the above hypothetical and move on from Parker, Butler, Carter, Hurns, Fejedelem, Little and Shaheen, they can carve out $80 million in 2022 cap space.
▪ If the Dolphins execute the aforementioned moves and also move on from starters Eric Rowe ($4.6 million savings) and Jesse Davis ($3.6 million), that’s another $8.2 million savings.
So that brings 2022 cap space to $88 million — more than enough to fill needs if (and that’s a big if) the Dolphins make the type of intelligent moves they generally haven’t made in recent years.
▪ What about backup quarterback in this Watson scenario?
With Jacoby Brissett on a one-year deal, a strong case could be made to keep Tua Tagovailoa, not only because of Watson’s unresolved legal situation — he could be suspended in 2022 — but also because trading Tagovailoa next spring would result in a higher cap hit for Miami ($9.8 million) than keeping him ($8.3 million).
Trading Tagovailoa after June 1 next year would result in Miami having a $4.9 million cap hit in 2022 and $3.4 million in savings. But that would prevent the Dolphins from getting a 2022 draft pick as compensation for Tagovailoa.
And signing a backup quarterback to replace Tagovailoa likely would be as costly against the cap as keeping Tagovailoa.
So even though there’s a good chance the Dolphins would move on from Tagovailoa if they acquire Watson — in order to prevent an uncomfortable locker room situation and for the purpose of acquiring a draft pick — the smarter move probably would be keeping Tagovailoa until Watson’s legal matter is resolved.
▪ FYI: Cutting Byron Jones after this season remains unlikely because $6 million of his $14.4 million salary is guaranteed in 2022 and there would be $12.3 million in dead money if he’s cut before June 1 and $8.1 million in dead money if the Dolphins cut him after June 1.
Bottom line: Even if the Dolphins take on Watson’s $35 million cap hit in 2022 and relinquish their three first-round picks during the next two years, they can still carve out $88 million in 2022 cap space to fill glaring needs.
But do you want general manager Chris Grier spending that money after botching free agency the past two years?
Having Watson and $88 million in spending money is a great situation if Watson clears legal hurdles and if a savvy personnel executive is spending that money.
But the current management spending that money? The track record suggests that’s a risky proposition.
Coach Brian Flores said Friday that Tagovailoa is the team’s quarterback for the remainder of the season barring injury but declined repeated offers to rule out a Watson trade. Watson reportedly has approved a trade only to Miami; the Dolphins have made an offer.
As for where things stand, Fox’s Jay Glazer said talks between the Dolphins and Texans are ongoing and a deal was very close last week.
Incidentally, if the Dolphins don’t trade for Watson, they’re set to have $80 million in 2022 cap space with potential to carve out more than $100 million.
Here’s part 1 of my Watson/Dolphins/Tua series this past week.
Here’s part 2 of my Watson/Dolphins/Tua series this past week.
SNAP DECISIONS
Here’s how the Dolphins allocated playing time against Buffalo:
▪ With linebacker Jerome Baker sidelined by a knee injury, the Dolphins started Duke Riley at inside linebacker, and he played 67 of the Dolphins’ 73 offensive snaps.
Sam Eguavoen, who played after Baker’s injury against Atlanta, logged only four snaps.
Elandon Roberts played 49 snaps in the other inside linebacker slot.
▪ Rookie linebacker Jaelan Phillips, who played just 15 defensive snaps against Atlanta, logged 61 against Buffalo.
▪ Rookie safety Jevon Holland played every defensive snap (73) for the second game in a row. Safety Brandon Jones played his most snaps of the season (70).
Former starter Eric Rowe, who has started just two games this season, was limited to 21 snaps.
▪ Cornerback Nik Needham, who has struggled against Buffalo, played 49 snaps, but Justin Coleman (20 snaps) got more played more than Needham late in the game.
Needham allowed seven of eight passes thrown against him to be caught for 94 yards. Coleman allowed all three passes thrown against him to be caught for 25 yards.
▪ Tight end Mike Gesicki played his highest percentage of snaps of the season — 67 of 69, with Adam Shaheen logging 41 and Durham Smythe 29. Rookie third-round pick Hunter Long remains inactive.
▪ Defensive tackle Zach Sieler played just 14 snaps, fewer than usual.
▪ At running back, the Dolphins gave 40 snaps to Myles Gaskin; 16 to Salvon Ahmed and 10 to Patrick Laird.
Gaskin had just 36 yards on 12 rushes (3.0 average) and Ahmed ran seven times for 22 yards (3.1).
▪ Jaylen Waddle played the most at receiver (65 of Miami’s 69 offensive snaps), with DeVante Parker logging 63. There was then a huge dropoff in playing time to Isaiah Ford (8), Mack Hollins (4) and Albert Wilson (2).
▪ Pro Football Focus graded Parker as Miami’s best player on offense on Sunday and Tagovailoa the worst... On defense, PFF graded Sieler the best and Coleman the worst...
Per PFF, right tackle Jesse Davis allowed eight quarterback pressures. Left tackle Liam Eichenberg permitted six pressures and two sacks... On the positive side, left guard Austin Jackson didn’t allow a pressure.
This story was originally published November 1, 2021 at 11:16 AM.
