As Dolphins rumors swirl, a Watson update and 10 ways to measure him. And ex-Cane added
Part 1 of a 3-part series
With next Tuesday’s trade deadline looming and Deshaun Watson rumors swirling, a few things to keep in mind about the disgruntled Houston quarterback, who hasn’t played a snap all season (in bold type are evening updates to the story):
1). NFL commissioner Roger Goodell suggested Tuesday night that the NFL doesn’t have enough information to warrant placing Watson on the commissioner’s exempt list. That means he likely could play immediately if traded.
“There obviously are other, I’ll call it legal approaches, that are being made, either through the civil cases,” Goodell said at the fall league meetings, when asked about Watson’s playing status. “Obviously the police have been investigating also. We don’t have all the access to that information at this point in time. We pride ourselves in not interfering in that, being as cooperative as we can to make sure we get all the facts.
“But I think that process is still ongoing. And until that process [no longer] is ongoing and we have enough data and enough information to make a determination of whether he should go on Commissioner’s exempt, we don’t feel that we have that necessary information at this point.”
2). The Houston Chronicle, in a column about Watson, reported that the “compensation” between the Dolphins and Texans has been “agreed to, according to sources familiar with the situation.”
But the report said the Dolphins will not go ahead with the deal unless Watson’s legal situation is resolved - which is unlikely to happen before the trade deadline - and suggests owner Stephen Ross also wants clarity from Goodell on a potential length of suspension, which Goodell reportedly has been unwilling to discuss.
The story suggest that the Dolphins will send at least three first-round picks to Houston and indicates Ross has signed off on the deal, on condition of the two significant aforementioned caveats.
3). Ross — who has not spoken to the media since before the 2019 season — was approached by reporters at Tuesday’s NFL owners meetings and said: “I know what it’s about and I’m not dealing with it.” He didn’t speak further. The Dolphins have declined repeated chances to publicly or privately rule out trading for Watson, who remains of interest to them.
4). Though Ross has spoken excitedly about the Watson possibility (according to two sources close to him), NBC’s Peter King said Ross isn’t pressuring his front office to trade for him.
5). A Watson associate has told people for weeks that he expects Watson to end up in Miami; the Dolphins have made an offer, but it’s not as rich as what Houston wants (three first-round picks and other assets). Fox’s Jay Glazer said another team called the Texans and were told they must beat the Dolphins’ offer.
6). If Watson is traded, there’s no assurance it will be to Miami. Carolina also is pursuing Watson, according to multiple reports, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports Watson is now open to considering options besides Miami, which was the only team to which he had agreed to waive his no-trade clause as of a week ago.
CBSHQ’s Josina Anderson said a league source told her Tuesday morning that “there are more teams Deshaun Watson can go to besides Miami. It’s not just Miami or bust.” Anderson said: “My understanding is Watson is willing for the most part to go to the teams that are interested in him.”
7).With a Texas grand jury having been convened to consider whether there should be criminal charges against Watson, SI.com notes that of the 10 criminal complaints filed against Watson, three alleged sexual assault, which is a second-degree felony. The other seven alleged indecent assault, which is a misdemeanor in Texas.
The view here: Trading for Watson without getting strong protections on those picks — in case Watson is indicted and ultimately suspended by the NFL and/or sent to prison - would be foolish. That’s even more the case considering what Tua Tagovailoa has displayed — aside from three interceptions — in the past two games, with Pro Football Focus ranking him the NFL’s fourth-best quarterback since returning from injury.
WATSON ON FIELD
Since we haven’t seen Watson on a football field in 10 months, here’s a reminder of what the Dolphins would be getting if they acquire the quarterback who led the league in yards passing in 2020 with 4,823, and where he ranked in 30 areas last season. We explore 10 of those areas in part 1 of this series:
▪ Watson was first in average yards per pass attempt (8.9), ahead of Kirk Cousins (8.3), Aaron Rogers (8.2) and Pat Mahomes (8.1).
Conversely, Tagovailoa is averaging 6.7 yards per attempt this season, but that’s not especially his fault. The Dolphins clearly don’t trust their offensive line enough to allow him to throw deep more often.
▪ Watson was third in completion percentage at 70.2 in 2020, behind only Rodgers (70.7) and Drew Brees (70.5). So he’s accurate and productive.
Tagovailoa has increased his completion percentage from 64.1 to 69.5 this season, which is sixth best in the league. What’s more, Dolphins receivers have dropped the most passes in the league, per CBS.
▪ Watson was tied with Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Tannehill for seventh in touchdown passes (33), behind only Rodgers (48), Tom Brady and Russell Wilson (40 apiece), Mahomes (38), Josh Allen (37), and Cousins (35).
And he did it even though Houston traded one of the NFL’s best receivers, DeAndre Hopkins, to Arizona in March 2020.
▪ Among quarterbacks who threw at least 500 passes last season, only Rodgers (five) and Mahomes (six) threw fewer interceptions than Watson’s seven. He threw 544 times last season.
So he’s not mistake prone.
The biggest issue with Tagovailoa this season has been the four interceptions in 118 throws. He threw five interceptions last season, and a metrics site said eight other potential interceptions were dropped.
▪ In passer rating last season, Watson ranked second at 112.4, behind only Rodgers at 121.5. (Tagovailoa’s 95.1 rating is 19th in the league, up from 87.7 last season.)
▪ Watson took 49 sacks, second most in the NFL behind Carson Wentz, who was sacked 50 times.
What’s more, Watson was sacked 8.3 percent of his attempts; only Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones and Wentz took a higher percentage of sacks last season.
In the previous two seasons (2018 and 2019), Watson was sacked an NFL-high 62 and 44 times.
That’s the biggest concern with Watson, his penchant for taking too many sacks despite his elite mobility. And no offensive line allows more quarterback pressure than the Dolphins.
Tagovailoa, conversely, has done a good job avoiding sacks this season (five in four games behind a mediocre offensive line). Only 11.9 percent of Tagovailoa’s drop backs have turned into sacks this season, sixth-best among all NFL QBs, per PFF’s Steve Palazzolo. Buffalo’s Josh Allen is first at 8.4 percent.
▪ Watson lost 293 yards in sacks last season; only Wentz (326) and Wilson (301) lost more yards. That puts his team in too many second-and-long or third-and-long situations. This, too, could be problematic for Miami behind a suspect offensive line.
▪ Watson was sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards (444) last season, behind Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton, Wilson and Taysom Hill. Those 444 yards ranked 49th among all NFL players.
If he joined the Dolphins, he would be their best running threat at the position in their history.
By contrast, Tagovailoa has rushed for 161 yards in his 13 NFL starts.
▪ Watson’s 4.9 rushing average per carry was third among quarterbacks last season. Tagovailoa, in his career, has averaged 3.4 yards per rush (47 for 161).
▪ Watson was tied with a bunch of quarterbacks for sixth in the NFL fumbles category last season, with four.
The quarterbacks who fumbled more than Watson in 2020: Hill (7), Jalen Hurts (6) and Newton, Jackson and Murray (5 apiece).
But Watson lost only one fumble. So that’s not a big area of concern.
Tagovailoa, conversely, has fumbled only once in 14 career games.
NEWS NOTE
The Dolphins signed former Miami Hurricanes star running back Duke Johnson to their practice squad.
Johnson, 28, has started 17 NFL games and appeared in 91, averaging 4.2 yards per carry on 459 carries and scoring eight touchdowns as a runner while catching 307 passes, including 12 TDs, and averaging 9.2 yards per reception.
Johnson, who attended Miami Norland High and was drafted 77th overall by Cleveland in 2015, began the season on the Jaguars’ practice squad but was released on Sept. 16.
Last season, Johnson averaged just 3.1 yards per carry on 77 rushing attempts in 11 games and five starts for Houston.
One running back — among Johnson, Gerrid Doaks and Patrick Laird — figures to be activated for Sunday’s game at Buffalo, in the wake of Malcolm Brown’s quadriceps injury. Brown will miss at least three games.
The Dolphins placed Brown and safety Jason McCourty (who’s out long-term) on injured reserve Tuesday but left one roster spot open. They signed safety Sheldrick Redwine to the other open 53-man roster spot created by the IR moves.
The two players added by the Dolphins this week — Johnson and Redwine — are former Hurricanes and ex-Browns draft picks.
The Dolphins protected Doaks from poaching by another team this week; Jamal Perry, Cameron Tom and Kirk Merritt also were protected from poaching.
We’ll explore 20 more areas involving Watson — and comparisons with Tagovailoa in those areas — in Part 2 of our series on Wednesday.
Here’s my Tuesday piece on how the Dolphins drastically changed their free agent strategy from 2020 to 2021 and how they botched both.
Here’s my Tuesday Heat 6-pack with lots of nuggets.
This story was originally published October 26, 2021 at 4:44 PM.
