Miami Dolphins expected to pursue more New England Patriots in free agency next week
Several factors explain why coach Brian Flores’ Dolphins tenure has gone better than Adam Gase’s did, and here’s one that should be in the top 10 on any list:
Even with the divorce from Kyle Van Noy after one year, the players that Flores imported from his previous team (the Patriots) have been better than those that Gase brought in from his former stops (Denver, Chicago).
From Jay Cutler to Josh Sitton (injured in his first game as a Dolphin) to Julius Thomas, Gase’s Bears and Broncos imports were generally disappointing.
But Flores found players who were important contributors to Miami’s 10-6 season, including Van Noy, Eric Rowe, Ted Karras and Elandon Roberts. Van Noy wasn’t quite what Miami expected, despite a pretty good stat line (69 tackles, six sacks, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in 14 games). Ultimately, the Dolphins didn’t believe Van Noy was worth the $12.5 million he was due (nonguaranteed) in 2021.
We told you here before 2020 free agency that the Dolphins were poised to pursue several Patriots. And we’re told they plan to inquire about several this year, too.
Among the names of interest to them: defensive tackle/end Adam Butler, defensive tackle Lawrence Guy (who lives in South Florida) and center David Andrews.
Last season, Flores made clear how much he values having players who have a history with him.
Linebacker Jerome Baker said Van Noy and Roberts essentially have been “coaches on the field. We come to the sideline, we have a good idea of what went wrong and what we need to do before the coaches even say anything. That just helps all of us as a defense in the long run, so I’m always excited when those guys are out there and they coach me up. It’s just a great feeling when — in all reality — we have another coach. You have a coach on the field essentially.”
And even with Van Noy gone and Roberts a free agent coming off a serious knee injury, it won’t be surprising if the Dolphins again try to selectively pluck players from the Patriots in free agency.
A look at the Patriots’ top free agents — at least those who had a history with Flores — and Miami’s potential interest:
▪ Guard Joe Thuney: The Dolphins like him, but he earned $14.8 million last season, and it’s difficult to justify that kind of investment when Miami: 1. Has limited cap space at $33 million. 2. Has far more pressing needs. and 3. Already has three starting-caliber guards in Ereck Flowers, Jesse Davis and Solomon Kindley.
▪ Defensive tackle Butler: The Dolphins are interested in the 6-5, 300-pound lineman and this makes a lot of sense, because of his versatility (can play any position on the line, including nose tackle), a need for another player (presuming Davon Godchaux moves on), his age (turns 27 in April) and his production.
Since 2017, Butler has appeared in 70 of a possible 71 games for the Patriots and produced 17 sacks, 88 quarterback pressures, 103 tackles and 23 tackles for loss. Last season, he had 34 tackles (six for loss) and four sacks in 15 games and four starts, despite playing with a nagging shoulder injury.
And he put up those numbers despite starting only 12 games over those four seasons, including four last season and none in 2018, when Flores served as New England’s de facto defensive coordinator.
▪ Defensive tackle Guy: The Dolphins have always liked him. And there’s a history of good production, including 57 tackles and two sacks in 14 starts last season and 59 tackles in 15 starts in Flores’ one year running the Patriots’ defense.
Pro Football Focus projects Guy could get around $7 million in 2021, calling him “the classic run-stuffing defensive tackle that teams can plug and play and then scheme pressures around him. He’d still bring value to a lot of teams, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see an uptick in snap-to-snap efficiency with a slightly reduced role after being asked to do a lot in New England the last few years.”
But with Butler and Guy, here are two issues. One is finances; can Miami afford to spend more than close-to-minimum type money on another defensive lineman? To do that and fill far more pressing needs such as wide receiver, they likely will need to clear out more cap space than the current $33 million.
The other issue, as raised to me by smart Dolphins podcaster Chris Kouffman, is this: Last season, Godchaux, Davis, Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler and Benito Jones accounted for 1923 snaps on 1033 plays, which is 1.86 players on the field per snap.
Even without Godchaux, Miami had a three-man rotation (Wilkins, Davis, Sieler) to essentially cover a defensive tackle position that averaged a bit under two players on the field per snap.
So here’s the question with Butler and Guy: If the Dolphins pursue either, can they assure them the volume of snaps they’re seeking? And whose expense would it come at?
If the Dolphins sign either, they need to be sure either would get a workload befitting of their ability and what they can expect contractually.
I would make the case to clear out more cap space to sign Butler or Guy or a player like that for this reason: Adding a Butler, as an example, would further strengthen the group of Emmanuel Ogbah, Wilkins, Davis and Sieler and put you in better position if one of those players sustains an injury. Plus, as Daniel Jeremiah said, the defensive tackle draft class is poor.
▪ Defensive end Dietrich Wise Jr.: The 6-5, 275-pounder had 4.5 sacks and 30 tackles in 16 games and five starts under Flores in 2018 and had 49 tackles (two for loss) and 2.5 sacks in 16 games and 7 starts last season.
We’re told he’s one of a bunch of names on Miami’s list of edge players who hold some interest to them. He’s better as a pass rusher than against the run.
PFF predicts Wise will get three years and $21 million and notes he “has played all over the defensive line in New England. Wise has 57 total pressures on 452 pass-rushing snaps over the past two years and a top-10 pass-rush win rate over that time. If he lands in a spot that cares less about the run than New England, his best football could be in front of him.”
▪ Center David Andrews: If Ted Karras wants more than what the Dolphins are thinking, Miami could try to land the pricier Andrews, who started 12 games last season and missed four with a thumb injury. We’re told the Dolphins are interested in Andrews but also would be fine with Karras returning.
Andrews and Karras both allowed two sacks last season; PFF rated Andrews 14th and Karras 17th among all centers. FYI: Patriots backup center James Ferentz is also a free agent.
▪ Quarterback Brian Hoyer: He backed up Tom Brady with the Patriots in 2017 and 2018, went to Indianapolis for a season and spent last season back with New England, as a backup in a room with starter Cam Newton and backup Jarrett Stidham.
As colleague Armando Salguero noted, Hoyer is a name on Miami’s radar as an option to back up Tua Tagovailoa.
The good news: Hoyer has made 39 career starts, had a TD to interception ratio that isn’t abysmal (52 to 35) and won’t threaten Tagovailoa for the starting job.
The bad news: He isn’t as good as some of the other available options (such as Tyrod Taylor, who figures to draw Dolphins interest), has a mediocre career passer rating of 82.1 and has lost his last 14 NFL starts over the past four seasons. At 35, he appears to be merely hanging onto his NFL career.
▪ Running backs James White and Rex Burkhead:
Though he’s only 28, White has seen his rushing numbers plummet the past two years; he averaged 3.9 yards on 67 carries in 2019, 3.5 yards on 35 carries in 2020. The former Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas standout is still valuable on special teams and in the receiving game; he had 49 catches for 375 in 14 games last season.
Two problems with Burkhead: He’s 30 (older than Miami likes) and he’s coming off a torn ACL.
Has done his best work as a receiver (130 catches-1144 yards, 8.8 average) but also has averaged 4.1 yards per carry, including that exact per carry average with 67 rushes last season.
PFF assesses him this way: “Burkhead suffered a significant knee injury in Week 11, believed to be a torn ACL, and will do his best to be ready for the 2021 season. Up to that point, he led the Patriots’ running backs in snaps and was second in carries. A healthy Burkhead can be a productive player in the running and passing games anywhere he goes.”
If Miami doesn’t sign top free agent running back Aaron Jones and instead pursues either one of these two players or any other backup type veteran running back, he likely would compete for the No. 2 or 3 job, joining Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, Patrick Laird, Jordan Scarlett and (we suspect) a first-, second- or third-round pick in April’s draft.
▪ Cornerback Jason McCourty: The Dolphins wanted to sign his brother, safety Devin, in free agency last season, but he opted to stay with the Patriots. Jason has had a fine career, but he’s 33, making him less appealing to Miami than Devin was a year ago.
PFF’s take: “Jason McCourty has seen his role reduced, but he still technically started 11 games in 2020 and played a versatile part within the New England defense, lining up at safety or in the slot on occasion in addition to his usual spot out wide. His versatility is useful, but McCourty isn’t transforming anybody’s secondary.”
▪ Linebacker John Simon: He had two sacks and 17 tackles in 11 games and two starts for Flores in 2018, then became a starter the past two years and had two sacks and 53 tackles this past season. Simon essentially replaced Van Noy last season and had problems setting the edge in the running game. He’s average in coverage. The Dolphins could do better.
There are other impending unrestricted free agents who played for the Patriots during Flores’ tenure and then moved onto other teams.
The most notable of those types of players to keep an eye on: safety Duron Harmon, who had 38 tackles and four interceptions in 16 games and six starts for Flores in 2018. He had two interceptions in 16 starts for Detroit last season. The Dolphins like him, but it’s unclear if they plan to make a change at safety.
PFF’s take: “Harmon earned consistently strong PFF grades in coverage as a designated free safety during his time in New England. But after being acquired by the Lions, Harmon was just one of a number of things that didn’t function as well in Motown as it had in Foxborough. Harmon has coverage skills but now needs to show he wasn’t just a product of the Patriots’ system.”
He’s a realistic option if Miami parts way with Bobby McCain or Rowe; the Dolphins certainly could opt to keep both their starting safeties.
This story was originally published March 11, 2021 at 1:22 PM.
