The puzzling decisions that contributed to Heat regression and what should have been done
As the Heat’s power rotation around Bam Adebayo continues to come up short — with the Clippers’ Ivica Zubac bullying Miami on Monday and the depleted, undersized Warriors pummeling Miami on the boards in overtime on Wednesday — the same questions keep coming to mind:
Why did the Heat believe that a combination of Kelly Olynyk, Meyers Leonard, Maurice Harkless, combo forward Andre Iguodala and still-developing Precious Achiuwa and KZ Okpala would be good enough to fill out their power rotation and compete for an NBA championship after declining to match, or even approach, the three-year, $30 million deal that Phoenix gave Jae Crowder?
Why was no effort made to sign Serge Ibaka, a player who could have helped?
Why, before free agency, did the Heat not take into account Erik Spoelstra’s expected reluctance to play promising first-round pick Achiuwa with Adebayo, a decision that has made the rookie essentially unusable when one of Miami’s max players is on the court?
And why was the Heat so protective of 2021 cap space when it knew that Adebayo’s extension would eliminate any realistic chance of carving out space for a max free agent this summer?
It’s important to note that the $9 million given to Leonard this season (he ended up appearing in three games and 29 minutes before his season-ending shoulder surgery) could not have been given to an outside free agent.
Miami could have used that money to make a more appealing offer to Derrick Jones Jr., who signed a two-year, $19 million deal with Portland. But opting for Leonard over Jones was understandable considering Miami’s depth on the wings.
Jones, incidentally, is averaging 7.6 points and 4.7 rebounds for Portland while shooting just 27.4 percent on threes in 24 games, including 23 starts. The player he’s defending is shooting 41.9 percent, which is well above average defensively.
Miami also could have given that Leonard money to Crowder. But even if the Heat had offered Crowder one year and $18 million (instead of its actual offer of one-year, $14 million), that wouldn’t have trumped Phoenix’s bid. And I can understand Miami not wanting to make that large an investment in Crowder, despite his contributions to the NBA Finals run.
But the midlevel exception money split between Harkless ($3.6 million) and Avery Bradley ($5.7 million) could have been allocated elsewhere.
And while the Bradley investment might prove helpful once he recovers from a calf injury, Miami’s midlevel money would have been better spent on addressing a power rotation that has been hurt by the inconsistency of Olynyk and the lack of rim deterrence beyond Adebayo.
According to a source with direct knowledge, Miami made no attempt to sign Ibaka, who took exception money (two years, $19 million) with the Clippers.
Ibaka spends some time in South Florida, and the Heat could have tempted him if it had offered the full midlevel for two years or, say, three years and $30 million, a contract that could have been traded in a year or two if that was deemed necessary.
As a Clippers starter, Ibaka is averaging 11.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks (18th in the league) while shooting 37.7 percent on threes. He’s a three-time All-NBA defender and is holding the player he’s defending to 46.7 percent shooting, compared with 49.5 for Olynyk, who has drawn six charges but also has only 18 blocks in 27 games. Ibaka’s size and physicality would have helped.
Miami also chose not to vigorously pursue Denver’s Paul Millsap, who has been pretty good (10.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 41 percent on threes) but not great. He took one year and $10 million to stay with the Nuggets.
Even if the Heat had offered exception money to Montrezl Harrell, he likely still would have taken the two-year, exception money deal ($19 million) from the Lakers because it didn’t require him moving cities (or arenas) in his transition from the Clippers.
Harrell’s and Ibaka’s deals both have player options for 2021-22.
When free agency started, Miami also had interest in veteran power forward Marcus Morris but didn’t have the cap space to remotely approach the four-year, $64 million deal he received from the Clippers.
Meanwhile, Harkless — who missed some time with an injury — has made far less of an impact (1.2 points, 0.9 rebounds) than some other relatively inexpensive power forwards who signed elsewhere, including Bobby Portis (11.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 30 for 62 on threes for Milwaukee), JaMychal Green (9.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 42.7 percent on threes for Denver on a two-year, $14.7 million deal) and Jeff Green (9.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 42.7 on threes for Brooklyn on a one-year, $2.6 million contract).
Portis took a two-year, $7.6 million deal with the Bucks, including a player option for Year Two, and he’s the player (aside from Ibaka) that Miami should have targeted in retrospect. Besides the excellent three-point shooting and rebounding he’s providing for Milwaukee, Portis is limiting players he’s guarding to 44.2 percent shooting.
Though Harkless took a one-year deal, having Portis on Miami’s books for this season at $3.6 million and next season at $3.8 million (his Bucks deal) wouldn’t have been a problem from a cap standpoint. And Portis has been far better than Harkless this season.
So this is what’s difficult to reconcile: If the Heat knew it would be extending Adebayo as it assuredly did — thus eliminating the potential to carve out space for a max free agent in 2021 — why not address power forward more effectively, this past November, with Ibaka or Portis, even if it required a second guaranteed season?
The Heat’s thinking was that it didn’t want to further clog its 2021-22 cap, and that’s understandable. But it wasn’t the best move in retrospect.
And with Spoelstra reluctant to play Achiuwa alongside Adebayo at this point, Miami likely will need to find power forward help before the March 25 trade deadline.
Sacramento’s Nemanja Bjelica and San Antonio’s Rudy Gay remain potential targets, according to people in touch with the Heat’s front office.
But Atlanta’s John Collins appears to be a long shot; The Athletic reported the Hawks want a potentially high lottery pick in any package for Collins, and the Heat has no first-round draft picks available to trade.
The Heat’s front office has done so much right during Pat Riley’s 26 years that it deserves a mulligan. But with the benefit of hindsight, a different approach probably should have been taken in that frenzied pre-Thanksgiving week of personnel moves.
Last week, I examined the state of the Heat franchise in a four-part series. Parts 3 here and 4 here explored where the Heat stands with the cap and moves they can make in the months ahead.
This story was originally published February 18, 2021 at 1:02 PM.
