Dolphins showing interest in extending at least one key player, but tough decisions loom
Several key members of the Dolphins’ core are 13 months from unrestricted free agency, and while Miami values all five, there are complications with potential contract extensions because of the economic impact of COVID-19.
Here’s what we know: According to a team source, the Dolphins have expressed interest in a contract extension for Jason Sanders, who’s coming off an exceptional season (36 for 39 in field goals).
I also would expect the Dolphins to try to keep three other members of that 2018 draft class who are entering the final year of their contracts: linebacker Jerome Baker and tight ends Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe.
And defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah — in the wake of a nine-sack season — could warrant an extension after signing a two-year, $15 million deal last March.
But here’s the problem with any contract extensions in the months ahead: The cap will be about $20 million less than it would have been if there had not been a pandemic.
So with the cap projected to be $180 million, Miami will have only $34 million or so in space; another $15 million or so can be created with roster cuts.
And after filling out its 2021 roster and signing a draft class and keeping a cushion in reserve, there might be not much cap space left to allocate to players with another year remaining on their contracts.
Here’s how it could work: Say the Dolphins — this offseason — hypothetically gave Gesicki a four-year, $35 million extension, including a $10 million signing bonus. Two million of that signing bonus would be prorated and would be reflected on the Dolphins’ 2021 cap, meaning that’s $2 million less that Miami has available to improve its team in 2021.
There’s also always a risk that a player signed to an extension with one season left on his contract could sustain a serious injury in what would have been his final season before free agency. And in the middle of a COVID-caused economic crisis, there’s also the question about whether many NFL owners will choose to spend money a year earlier than they need to.
“Here’s what I would do if I were the Dolphins,” said one agent who doesn’t represent anyone in the Dolphins’ 2018 draft class. “I would offer all four guys extensions [Gesicki, Smythe, Baker and Sanders] and tell them the first one who takes it gets the extension, but we can’t do anymore than one. Play it out with the others.”
Examining each of the four, plus Ogbah:
▪ Baker: The linebacker raised his game in every area, showing growth as a run defender and as a pass rusher (career-high seven sacks). He was 28th in the league with 112 tackles, and Baker and Tampa Bay second-team All Pro linebacker Devin White were the only players in the league who produced at least 100 tackles and more than five sacks.
Baker has progressed from being an average/pretty good starter to a good-to-very-good starter.
Though he has made a strong case for an extension, the immediate cap consequences of a signing bonus would be the concern.
Using the franchise tag on him in 2022 likely isn’t an appealing option because a linebacker tag probably will top $16 million on a one-year contract in 2022.
“There really isn’t one part of his game that he hasn’t improved upon,” linebackers coach Anthony Campanile said. “The run game, the pass game, as a pass rusher, he’s had some success doing all of the things we’ve asked him to do. He has a really good feel for what the opponent is trying to do and who the personnel is. He’s a great guy to coach, and I think he’s progressed in a lot of ways.”
As perspective, in August 2019, Jacksonville gave linebacker Myles Jack a four-year, $57 million extension with $33 million guaranteed, off a season statistically worse than Baker’s (107 tackles, one interception, 2.5 sacks). Like Jack, Baker has not been voted to a Pro Bowl.
▪ Gesicki: Whether the Dolphins and agent Jimmy Sexton can agree on his value remains very much in question. If they cannot, the Dolphins could delay a decision for a year and either sign another tight end with similar skills or use the franchise tag on him, which projects to about $10.5 million in 2022.
As perspective, Cleveland gave a four-year, $42 million contract to Falcons two-time Pro Bowler Austin Hooper last March. Hooper, at the time, was coming off a season in which he caught 75 passes for 787 yards. Gesicki’s numbers in his past two seasons: 51 for 570 in 2019, and 53 for 703 in 2020.
▪ Smythe: I would expect the Dolphins and agent Tom Condon to try to work out a deal, and it shouldn’t break the bank. The regard for Smythe has continued to rise internally.
“He really does a good job,” former offensive coordinator Chan Gailey said. “He can play multiple positions, He’s very intelligent, a true tough guy. He’s very valuable to us as a football team, as an offense. He plays special teams. He does a lot of things to help this team become successful.”
▪ Sanders: Both sides would like to work out an extension, but it hasn’t reached the point of serious negotiations, according to a team source. The question is whether the Dolphins are willing to pay him on par with Justin Tucker’s four-year, $20 million extension with the Ravens in 2019. That was the richest deal ever given to a kicker.
If they opt to instead place the franchise tag on him in 13 months, the cost would be about $5 million.
Sanders was fifth in field-goal percentage among kickers with at least 30 made field goals (92.3 percent) and was second best in the league on kicks of 50 yards or more (8 for 9). He also was the only kicker who attempted more than 16 extra points without a miss; Sanders was 36 for 36 in 2020.
▪ Emmanuel Ogbah: If he posts another nine-sack season next year, he will be in line for a big raise. The question is whether Miami wants to see another full year before committing long-term.
“Do I think Emmanuel has earned a contract extension? Absolutely,” his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said in December on his WSVN-Fox 7 segment. “If I were the Dolphins, I would sign him to an extension.”
Rosenhaus also represents Baker, incidentally.
Here’s my Wednesday Miami Hurricanes 6-pack.
Here’s my Wednesday Heat piece with a bunch of notes and an injury update as Miami begins its longest road trip in 12 years.
This story was originally published February 10, 2021 at 5:06 PM.
