How the Miami Dolphins’ rookie draft picks compare to the players the team bypassed
One thing we hear the Dolphins front office does not like is when writers go through the exercise of looking back at the last draft, evaluating the player Miami took and comparing that player to the prospects the team bypassed. (So our apologies!)
That exercise has been painful for Dolphins fans at times, but this year, there’s more reason to praise than question Dolphins general manager Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores.
A “with the benefit of hindsight” perspective on Miami’s first four rounds of the 2020 draft, through three quarters of the season:
▪ Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5:
You can reasonably debate whether Tagovailoa or sixth overall pick Justin Herbert will be the better quarterback long-term, but at the very least, Tagovailoa looks like a quality NFL starter, with the potential for much more.
In comparing the first five starts for quarterbacks who started multiple games as rookies and have had good careers, Tagovailoa (99.4 passer rating, 7 TDs, 0 picks, 4-1 record) has been just as good as Ben Roethlisberger; similar to Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson (Tagovailoa and those three all had three good games and two subpar ones in their first five); better than Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Drew Bledsoe and far better than Peyton Manning (4 TDs, 12 picks), Eli Manning (3 TDs, 7 picks, 0-5 record), John Elway (1 TD, 5 picks), Carson Palmer (4 TDs, 8 picks) and Matt Stafford (3 TDs, 7 picks).
Decision if we knew then what we know now: I’d stick with Tagovailoa, but I could understand those opting for Herbert (23 TDs, 9 INTs, 94.2 rating, 2-9 record). But Herbert has cooled off recently and was shut out by New England last week. Nobody will know for another year.
▪ Left tackle Austin Jackson at No. 18:
Receiver Justin Jefferson — picked 22nd — has produced big numbers in Minnesota (61 catches, 1,039 yards, seven touchdowns) but Jackson was an understandable choice because he might be able fill a need position for years.
Consider that Jackson has permitted only three sacks in nine games, compared with these sacks relinquished by the players picked ahead of him: Andrew Thomas (six), Mekhi Becton (five), Jedrick Wills (four) and Tristan Wirfs (one). Houston’s Laremy Tunsil, traded by Miami for a treasure trove of draft picks, has allowed two.
Among others (besides Jefferson) who were picked shortly after Jackson, Philadelphia receiver Jalen Reagor (20 catches, 256 yards, one TD, one punt return for a TD) and Chargers linebacker Kenneth Murray (81 tackles, one sack in 12 starts) have contributed. Two who haven’t done much: Las Vegas cornerback Damon Arnette (picked 19th; 19 tackles, no picks in six starts; missed time with a broken thumb) and Jacksonville linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson (picked 20th; 13 tackles and only two starts).
Decision if we knew then what we know now: Jefferson would be my pick because he’s a Pro Bowl talent, but I also could justify sticking with Jackson because he plays a premium position that absolutely had to be filled, and he has the potential to fill it for years. This is strictly a Jefferson/Jackson choice.
▪ Cornerback Noah Igbinoghene at No. 30 (Miami originally had the 26th pick but traded down):
When Byron Jones missed time with an injury, the rookie struggled badly in two games but played well both against Jacksonville and after Xavien Howard’s ejection against the Bengals. He has a bloated 138.8 passer rating in his coverage area, but the Dolphins believe he has the ball skills and athleticism to become a quality player. It’s too soon to definitively know.
Among players bypassed by Miami at 26 were Patrick Queen, who has been very productive as a starting middle linebacker for Baltimore (84 tackles, two sacks and a touchdown).
The skill-position players selected just after Igbihoghene at 30 have performed favorably: running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire (692 yards rushing on a 4.6 per carry and 30 receptions for Kansas City), D’Andre Swift (331 yards rushing on 4.7 per carry and 31 receptions for Detroit) and receivers Tee Higgins (53 catches for 729 yards and five touchdowns for Cincinnati) and Michael Pittman (31-376-1 TD for Indianapolis).
But cornerback Jeff Gladney, a starter for the Vikings picked at 31 right after Igbinoghene, has struggled, with a 126.4 passer rating in his coverage area and seven touchdowns allowed.
Decision if we knew then what we know now: The pick likely would be Higgins or Edwards-Helaire if Miami stuck with Jackson over Jefferson at 18. The good news is Miami has the capital to find similar players to Higgins and Edwards-Helaire in a 2021 draft that’s deep in quality receivers and has at least three backs of similar quality. And we believe Igbinoghene has the skills to be successful long-term.
Important caveat: Trading down with Green Bay from 26 to 30 netted Miami the 136th pick, which was dealt two days later with pick No. 141 for pick No. 111, which became guard Solomon Kindley.
▪ Offensive tackle Robert Hunt at 39: The rookie has been solid in seven starts, permitting only one sack in 248 pass blocking chances and ranking fourth among all rookie tackles in lowest percentage of QB pressures allowed. And purely as a run blocker, PFF ranks him 40th among 81 qualifying tackles.
Of the players selected shortly after him, Pittsburgh receiver Chase Claypool (47 catches, 649 yards, eight TDs), Baltimore running back J.K. Dobbins (451 yards rushing, 5.4 average) and Tampa safety Antoine Winfield (starter; 89.2 passer rating against, 69 tackles, two sacks) have been very good. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor (609 yards rushing, 4.1 average, 29 catches) also has impressed.
Jacksonville receiver Laviska Shenault (36 catches, 392 yards, two TD) has been OK and Houston defensive tackle Ross Blacklock (10 tackles in 11 games) has had a negligible impact while Cleveland safety Grant Delpit, selected 44th, tore an Achilles tendon in training camp and is out for the year.
Decision if we knew then what we know now: Claypool would be the pick if I stuck with Jackson instead of Jefferson at 18 and passed up Higgins at 30, but it’s close. Hunt would be the pick if I went with Jefferson at 18. Either way, Miami should have no regrets on Hunt; if he’s an above average right tackle for 6 to 10 years, it’s a good pick.
▪ Defensive tackle Raekwon Davis at 56:
Like Hunt, it’s too soon to know, but there are very encouraging signs the past month; PFF rates Davis fourth best among all rookie defensive linemen in 2020. PFF says he has the third most run stuffs (basically a good play for the defense) of any rookie defender in football.
Among players selected directly after Davis, production has been modest for Rams receiver Van Jefferson (15 catches, 170 yards), Jets receiver Denzel Mims (19 catches, 324 yards) and Green Bay running back AJ Dillon (23 carries, 97 yards). Patriots linebacker Josh Uche missed time with a foot injury and has three tackles and a sack in six games, while Ezra Cleveland has started five games at guard for Minnesota.
Decision if we knew then what we know now: I stick with the rapidly improving Davis because he has the talent to anchor a premium position (nose tackle) for the Dolphins for many years.
▪ Safety Brandon Jones at 70:
The Dolphins know they have a smart player who can tackle (42 tackles, three for loss) and run. But he took a bad angle on a long Bengals TD last week and coverage skills remain the question.
He has permitted 20 of 23 passes thrown against him to be caught for 175 yards and a TD (a 112.9 passer rating in his coverage area) after allowing six TDs and a 133.2 passer rating against when playing in the slot at Texas last year.
Among those selected immediately after: Jacksonville defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton (30 tackles, six starts) and Buffalo running back Zack Moss (292 yards rushing, 4.1 per carry) have played pretty well, while Saints linebacker Zack Baun (nine tackles, two starts), Tampa Bay running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn (8 rushes, 46 yards), and Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (11 tackles, 2 starts) have made only small contributions. Jets and ex-Gators defensive end Jabari Zuniga has barely played and Arizona tackle Josh Jones is a backup.
Decision if we knew then what we know now: A case could still be made for Jones. It’s not like the Dolphins missed out on a star that went shortly after.
▪ Guard Solomon Kindley at 111:
No point in going through the exercise. He was a fourth-round steal, a potential longterm starter.
As Fox’s Troy Aikman said, “he gets a couple years in the weight room, he’s going to be destroying people. He’s a mauler.”
If you’re curious, the players picked directly after have ranged from disappointing (Chargers running back Joshua Kelley) to decent (Carolina cornerback Troy Pride).
Decision if we knew then what we know now: Kindley would be the pick without hesitation.
We did the same exercise last week regarding the Dolphins’ decisions in free agency - who they signed, who they passed on and how it worked out. Here’s that piece.
Here’s my Friday piece with Dolphins injury updates and a look at issues that must gain clarity over the final month of the season.
This story was originally published December 11, 2020 at 4:27 PM.
