The message Miami Heat players need to give to Pat Riley with their play. And Bol Bol.
Some Heat notes on the eve of the resumption of the season:
▪ We’ll know, within the month, whether this delightful Heat season was reflective of this roster’s true ability and whether this is a legitimate Eastern Conference semifinal-caliber team or whether Miami overachieved during its magical 27-10 start.
And here are 10 words Heat players should keep in mind, with six impending free agents on this team:
Don’t give Pat Riley a reason to use cap space
If this Heat team plays well in the Orlando re-start, Riley and the Heat will have every reason to bypass using cap space this summer and instead operate as an over-the-cap team to re-sign at least three among Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder, Meyers Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr. to one-year deals and then perhaps use an exception (potentially in the $9 million range) to sign one outside free agent, with Denver’s Paul Millsap among the potential targets.
(Signing all four, or possibly even three, and using the exception would be very difficult, perhaps impossible, without exceeding the luxury tax threshold that the Heat assuredly doesn’t want to surpass.)
But if this Heat implodes and the impending free agents struggle, the Heat will face a tougher decision about whether to merely re-sign them and give this group another run.
Because of the prospect of the salary cap being at least slightly slower than projected, the safer move would be to not operate as a room team but instead use the Bird Rights of Dragic, Crowder, Leonard and Jones to re-sign them, with maybe one outside addition using exception money and perhaps a minor trade.
The other alternative: Renounce all of those four free agents (Solomon Hill and Udonis Haslem are also free agents) and use what could be $21 million to $27 million in cap space, depending on where the cap falls.
That option becomes more of a consideration if these Heat free agents — and the team — flop at Disney, and even then, Miami wouldn’t want to do anything to affect its ability to carve out space for a max free agent in 2021.
The notion of Miami having $33 million to $39 million in space this summer has dissipated, because it’s doubtful Kelly Olynyk would opt out of $12.2 million in 2020-21.
So the message for Heat players is clear: Make this decision easy for Riley, Erik Spoelstra, Nick Arison, Andy Elisburg and company. Don’t give them a reason to use cap space.
The sense here is that if the decision needed to be made now, the Heat would operate as an over-the-cap team and try to sign Dragic, Crowder, Leonard and Jones to one-year deals; the front office appreciates the skills and work ethics of each of those four. Perhaps Olynyk could be dealt for cap savings in that scenario.
But the decision doesn’t need to be made now. And much could change over the next three months, particularly if a team offers any of those four impending free agents a multiyear deal — one Miami likely wouldn’t match because of the desire to preserve cap space for a max free agent in 2021.
▪ Denver 7-2 center Bol Bol might cause the Heat — and many other teams — to have some second thoughts after averaging 13 points, 6 rebounds and 3 blocks in scrimmage games in the past week. But it’s far too soon to make any conclusions on that.
Though the Heat drafted Bol 44th last June and then dealt him to Denver in a pre-arranged transaction, Miami didn’t technically own the 44th pick at the time and never intended to draft him, concerned about his injury history, particularly a foot injury that required surgery and limited him to nine games at Oregon.
One veteran NBA scout from another franchise said teams also had concerns about Bol’s maturity and defensive intensity.
He played in only nine games all season — all in the G-League — and spent much of the year recovering from the foot surgery.
It’s unclear if he will be in Denver’s rotation when the teams meet at 1 p.m. Saturday. The Nuggets have been dealing with multiple injuries, and coach Mike Malone has said he isn’t sure what players will be out.
“I’m very impressed,” Nuggets guard Troy Daniels said of Bol. “He has a lot of potential, a lot of potential. He definitely has the intangibles to be a great player. ... Bol Bol, he did what he does. He has length, he can shoot, he can handle. He works on that and keep grinding and get stronger, he’ll be a very, very good player.”
Here’s what happened on draft night:
When the Heat decided to trade three future second-round picks to Indiana for the 32nd selection, Miami did it with the intent of selecting Stanford forward KZ Okpala, who was the highest-rated player on Miami’s board. Indiana had obtained that draft pick from Phoenix in a trade earlier that day.
After making that selection of Okpala, the Heat quickly decided that it did not want, or need, a second second-round pick. So Miami immediately dealt that pick — which had been acquired the previous day from Atlanta — to Denver, according to a league source. That happened long before the 44th pick was on the clock.
When the Heat selected Bol Bol at 44, it was making that selection for the Nuggets because Miami had agreed, about 20 minutes earlier, to trade that selection to Denver without any knowledge of who would be available at 44, and with no desire to add a second second-round pick to its roster.
▪ Among Spoelstra’s biggest lineup decisions for postseason is whether to go 11 deep. Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Derrick Jones Jr., Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder assuredly will play, and Kelly Olnyk has made a strong case, too.
For perspective, Spoelstra used a nine-man rotation in Game 1 of the Heat-76ers playoff series two years ago — Miami’s last playoff appearance before now — but then used 11 players while the game was competitive in Game 2, 10 in Game 3, 10 in Game 4 and 11 in Game 5.
So there’s precedent for Spoelstra going 11 deep.
Here’s my Friday media column with Heat TV voice Eric Reid discussing notable feedback to his commentary about his family and systemic racism, plus news on Monday Night Football and Jon Vilma.
Here’s my piece on Spoelstra’s interesting late-game lineup decisions.
Here’s my Friday piece, with Jordan McPherson, with lots of news on the on-going Marlins COVID-19 saga.
This story was originally published July 31, 2020 at 4:07 PM.
