This is Erik Spoelstra’s most difficult personnel decision. What the data tells us
The case could be made that Erik Spoelstra has a longer, more appealing menu of late-game options than at any time since the Big 3 era.
And that’s why the Heat coach’s decision about what players to use late in seeding and playoff games will be so critical.
As is often the case, much will be based on a combination of feel and matchups.
Spoelstra displays a willingness to ride the hot hand, so players who are on the court during a furious Heat rally normally are given the chance to play it out.
Under Spoelstra, players in the midst of strong shooting games are often — but not always — summoned to play late-game minutes.
It’s a given that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will be on the floor late in close games.
Among Spoelstra’s nine other realistic late-game options, here are the pros and cons for each, using the NBA definition of clutch as the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer:
GORAN DRAGIC
▪ The case to play him late in close games: He has had a terrific season and was the NBA’s only reserve to average at least 16 points and 5 assists while shooting at least 37 percent from three-point range (he’s at 37.7).
Plus, he’s playoff-tested (35 career postseason games), poised and usually gets the Heat into its offense during periods of games when the opposing defense stiffens. He has committed only two turnovers in 75 clutch minutes this season.
▪ Counterpoint: He has struggled with his shooting in the clutch this season: 6 for 23 overall (26.1 percent) and 1 for 12 (8.3 percent) on threes. Miami has been outscored by 22 points in his 75 clutch minutes.
DUNCAN ROBINSON
▪ The case to play him late in close games: OK, Captain Obvious, let’s frame his ridiculous season this way: No player other than Steph Curry has ever hit as many three-pointers in a season at such a high rate of accuracy. Robinson hit 243 threes this season while shooting an absurd 44.8 percent from three-point range. One of best shooters in the league needs to be on the floor unless he’s having a horrible shooting night.
▪ Counterpoint: Teams will continue to attack him defensively late in games, which often results in fouls — many of which the Heat believes are unwarranted. Robinson was whistled for 4.4 fouls per 48 minutes this season — most on the Heat and 38th in the league. His overall defensive metrics aren’t horrendous; players are shooting 46 percent when he’s guarding them, compared with 44.6 overall.
FYI: His clutch three-point shooting, incidentally, is still good (38.1 percent, 8 for 21) but not as good as his overall three-point shooting.
ANDRE IGUODALA
▪ The case to play him late in close games: Nobody on the Heat has more playoff experience (145 games, including 81 starts). In the past two postseasons, he was 7 of 9 in the clutch, including 3 for 3 on threes.
And there’s this: Even though Iguodola still had not completely found his rhythm offensively for Miami, he held the player he guarded to 37.6 percent shooting on 93 shot attempts this season, second best among NBA forwards who have defended at least 90 shots. Spoelstra has made clear how much he trusts him.
▪ The counterpoint: Iguodala’s clutch minutes with the Heat have been disastrous from a plus/minus standpoint, though he obviously doesn’t get all or nearly all the blame for that. In his 12 clutch minutes, the Heat has been outscored by 34 points.
TYLER HERRO
▪ The case to play him late in close games: Among players with at least eight clutch three-pointers this season, only Joe Harris shot better than Herro on threes in clutch time, among all NBA guards this season.
Herro was 8 for 15 on threes (53.3 percent) in the clutch.
What’s more, Miami has outscored teams by 16 points in the clutch with Herro on the floor — best on the team.
▪ Counterpoint: On nights he’s off with his shot, the Heat might be at a late-game deficit with Herro because teams will target the rookie defensively. Players he’s guarding are shooting 44.5 percent this season, compared with 43.5 percent against everyone else.
JAE CROWDER
▪ The case to play him late in close games: He can guard multiple positions defensively, is playoff tested (51 games, 30 starts), isn’t a liability at either end of the court and has the trust of the coach.
Consider that from the time of his acquisition by the Heat, only Washington’s Davis Bertans and the Heat’s Robinson played more fourth-quarter minutes than Crowder. Plus, his three-point shooting improved significantly since the trade from Memphis (29.3 with the Grizzlies this season; 39.3 percent with Miami).
▪ Counterpoint: His offensive numbers historically have dipped in the playoffs. He’s a 38.5 percent shooter in the playoffs (compared with 41.9 overall) and is shooting just 32.2 percent on playoff threes in his career, including 31 for 96 (32.2 percent) with Utah the past two postseasons…. Miami has been outscored by 20 points with Crowder on the floor since the trade.
DERRICK JONES JR.
▪ The case to play him late in close games: He’s holding the player he’s guarding to 40.1 percent shooting, compared to the 45.5 those players shoot overall. Among qualifying NBA forwards, only Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis are holding players to a lower shooting percentage.
▪ Counterpoint: Teams still sag off him because of his inconsistent three-point shooting (27 percent this season, 27.6 percent career). That can lead to more double-teams against the Heat’s better offensive players…. Despite his good work defensively, Miami has been outscored by 38 points with Jones on the court, which is worst on the team.
KENDRICK NUNN
▪ The case to play him late in close games: The Heat has outscored teams by 10 points in Nunn’s 79 clutch minutes. Herro is the only other player on the team with a positive plus/minus in the clutch. On nights his shot is falling, Nunn is a valuable asset late in games.
▪ Counterpoint: Players he’s guarding are shooting 48.3 percent, compared to 44.4 percent overall. That’s worst among Heat wing players.
MEYERS LEONARD
▪ The case to play him late in close games: He’s second on the team in three-point shooting at 42.9 percent, and Miami has outscored teams by 95 when he’s on the court.
▪ Counterpoint: Spoelstra traditionally likes having Adebayo and four wings on the floor late in games, with many other teams also typically going small down the stretch. Leonard has played just five clutch minutes all season.
KELLY OLYNYK
▪ The case to play him late in close games: Olynyk shot 20 for 30 on threes since the All-Star break. And he has continued to play well in scrimmages during the past week.
▪ Counterpoint: See Leonard’s counterpoint. Olynyk has played just 18 clutch minutes all year; he’s 2 for 5 on threes during those minutes.
This story was originally published July 30, 2020 at 5:42 PM.
