Here’s how Tua Tagovailoa’s rookie season compares with first year of 25 QBs this century
Part 2 of a 3-part series:
So how did Tua Tagovailoa’s season compare with the first seasons of other contemporary quarterbacks who played a lot as rookies?
We compared Tagovailoa’s rookie season with the first-season performance for 25 quarterbacks who started at least six games as rookies this century.
Tagovailoa finished his rookie season with a 6-3 record in nine starts, with 11 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, an 87.1 passer rating and an average of 200.5 yards passing in his nine starts.
Because Pat Mahomes, Drew Brees and Tom Brady didn’t start multiple games as rookies, they weren’t included in this analysis. Here’s how Tagovailoa stacked up:
TAGOVAILOA WAS BETTER THAN THESE QBs COMPARING ROOKIE SEASONS
▪ Josh Allen: 12 games (11 starts), 5-6 record, 67.9 passer rating, 181.9 yards passing per game in his starts, 10 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
▪ Sam Darnold: 13 games (13 starts), 4-9 record, 77.6 passer rating, 220.4 yards passing per game, 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
▪ Joe Flacco: 16 games (16 starts), 11-5 record, 80.3 passer rating, 185.7 yards passing per game, 14 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
▪ Ryan Tannehill: 16 games (16 starts), 7-9 record, 76.1 rating, 205.9 yards passing per game, 12 touchdowns, 13 interceptions
▪ Derek Carr: 16 games (16 starts), 3-13 record, 76.6 passer rating, 204.4 yards passing per game, 21 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
▪ Alex Smith: 9 games (7 starts), 2-5, 40.8 passer rating, 120.1 yards passing per game in his starts, 1 touchdown, 11 interceptions
▪ Eli Manning: 9 games (7 starts), 1-6, 55.4 rating, 139.6 yards passing per game in his starts, 6 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
▪ Carson Wentz: 16 games (16 starts), 7-9 record, 79.3 rating, 236.4 yards passing per game, 16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
▪ Matt Stafford: 10 games (10 starts), 2-8, 61.0 rating, 226.7 yards passing per game, 13 touchdowns, 20 interceptions
▪ Jared Goff: 7 games (7 starts), 0-7, 63.6 passer rating, 155.6 yards passing per game, 5 touchdowns, 7 interceptions
▪ Carson Palmer: 13 games (13 starts), 6-7, 77.3 rating, 222.8 yards passing per game, 18 touchdowns, 18 interceptions
▪ Andy Dalton: 16 games (16 starts), 9-7, 80.4 rating, 212.4 yards passing per game, 20 touchdowns, 13 interceptions
TUA WAS CLEARLY STATISTICALLY WORSE THAN THESE QBs AS ROOKIES
▪ Justin Herbert: 15 games (15 starts); 6-9 record, 98.3 rating, 289.1 yards passing per game in his starts; 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
▪ Baker Mayfield: 14 games (13 starts), 6-7 record, 93.7 passer rating, 271.1 yards passing per game in his starts, 27 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
▪ Russell Wilson: 16 games (16 starts), 11-5, 100.0 rating, 194.9 yards passing per game in his starts, 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and 94 carries for 489 yards (5.2 per carry) rushing.
▪ Ben Roethlisberger: 14 games (13 starts), 13-0 record, 98.1 rating, 188.1 yards passing per game in his starts, 17 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.
▪ Deshaun Watson: 7 games (6 starts): 3-3 record, 103 rating, 281.2 yards passing per game in his starts, 19 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and 36 rushes for 269 yards (7.5 average)
▪ Dak Prescott: 16 games (16 games), 13-3 record, 104.9 rating, 229.2 yards passing per game, 23 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.
TUA WAS ON PAR WITH OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND THESE QBs AS ROOKIES
▪ Lamar Jackson: 16 games (7 starts), 6-1 record, 84.5 passer rating, 159.1 passing yards per game in his starts, 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 147 rushes for 695 yards (4.7 average).
▪ Joe Burrow: 10 games (10 starts): 2-7-1 record, 89.8 passer rating, 268.8 yards passing per game, 13 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
▪ Matt Ryan: 16 games (16 starts), 11-5, 87.7 rating, 215 yards passing per game, 16 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
▪ Kyler Murray: 16 games (16 starts); 5-10-1, 87.4 passer rating, 232.6 yards passing per game, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
▪ Andrew Luck: 16 games (16 starts), 11-5 record, 76.5 passer rating, 273.4 yards passing per game, 23 touchdowns, 18 interceptions
▪ Cam Newton: 16 games (16 starts), 6-10, 84.5 rating, 253.2 yards passing per game, 21 touchdowns, 17 interceptions
▪ Jameis Winston: 16 games (16 starts) 6-10, 84.2 passer rating, 252.6 yards passing per game, 22 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
So, in summation, if Tagovailoa were inserted among these 25 quarterbacks who started multiple games as rookies this century, he would rank 10th (of 26) in passer rating, 18th in passing yards per game and eighth best in won/loss record. If you average those three numbers together, he would be 12th of 26, which isn’t bad.
So the good news is that Tagovailoa was better, as a rookie, than Allen (who was an MVP candidate this season) and Eli Manning, who won two Super Bowls, an on par with Atlanta’s Ryan and Luck, who had outstanding careers, with Ryan’s obviously still ongoing.
He also was better as a rookie than three Hall of Famers who debuted last century: Peyton Manning (3-13 record, 26 TDs, 28 interceptions, 78.2 rating), John Elway (4-6, 7 TDs, 14 interceptions, 54.9 rating) and Troy Aikman (0-11, 9 TDs, 18 INTs, 55.7 rating).
The bad news is he hasn’t shown as much early on as some of the best quarterbacks who started as rookies the few years, such as Wilson and Watson and Herbert — who all had better supporting casts (which matters).
Coming in part 3 on Thursday: Longtime general managers and quarterbacks discuss Tagovailoa and what he could become.
Here’s part 1 of the series, exploring every aspect of Tagovailoa’s performance and metrics.
This story was originally published January 13, 2021 at 4:05 PM.
