What advanced data shows about Tua’s rookie season: What he did well and what he didn’t
Part 1 of a 3-part series on Dolphins rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa
There are many statistical ways to judge quarterbacks, so much so that it’s simple enough to find numbers to fit completely different narratives about players who were neither great nor awful.
If you’re bullish on Tua Tagovailoa, you can accurately point out that his first-year numbers were far better than Josh Allen’s and the Manning brothers and John Elway’s rookie statistics and that he had the highest percentage of deep ball drops of any quarterback in the league and that his supporting cast was among the most mediocre in the league.
If you’re down on the rookie, you can accurately point out that his passer rating was better than only six quarterbacks who appeared in at least 10 games.
Here’s a six-pack of statistical nuggets examining different elements of Tagovailoa’s rookie season, which included nine starts, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions:
▪ Let’s start with the most elementary of stats:
Tagovailoa was 26th in passer rating at 87.1. Among players who started at least half of their team’s games, only Nick Mullens, Cam Newton, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold had a worse rating.
In terms of completion percentage, Tagovailoa was 29th at 64.1 — ahead of only Baker Mayfield, Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Darnold, Wentz and Lock.
In yards per pass attempt, Tagovailoa was 26th at just 6.3 — ahead of only Darnold, Wentz, Haskins and Foles.
In yards passing per game, he was next to last at 181.4; only Cam Newton was worse at 177.1.
But Tagovailoa’s passing yards per game average was 200 if you throw out the first Jets game, when he played two minutes of garbage time.
In ESPN’s complicated QBR metric, Tagovailoa was 26th.
So all of the standard stats suggest Tagovailoa performed in the bottom quarter of the league among quarterbacks.
▪ Tagovailoa’s deep passing — a strength at Alabama — was better than his Dolphins stats suggest.
Among passes thrown at least 20 yards in the air, Tagovailoa had three drops — which is a higher percentage of drops than any other NFL QB with at least 29 attempts.
Tagovailoa’s deep numbers — 10 for 29 for 259 yards, two touchdowns and one interception — were better than Joe Burrow’s (9 for 48 for 293 and one drop), Mitch Trubisky’s (6 for 33 for 171, no drops), Jimmy Garoppolo’s (1 for 10 for 35 yards, no drops), Sam Darnold’s (11 for 38, 303 yards and one drop) and Jarred Goff’s (13 for 43 for 416 yards and two drops), among others.
▪ According to NFL data analyst Anthony Reinhard, Tagovailoa had 12 passes dropped (Pro Football Focus said it was 14) and those drops cost the Dolphins 25.3 points. That would compute to 21 drops and 45 points over 16 games.
That wouldn’t be among the most drops in the league through 16 games. Ben Roethlisberger, in 15 starts, had 39 drops, costing him 74 points, according to Reinhard’s analysis.
What hurt Tagovailoa more than overall drops were drops of deep balls and his receivers’ inability to create separation (Miami was among the worst in the league in that regard) and create yards after catch (Miami was statistically the worst in that metric), plus a running game that generated the fewest yards after contact, on average.
▪ The disparity between how Tagovailoa did in a clean pocket compared to facing a heavy pass rush was especially lopsided. Conversely, Justin Herbert performed equally effective in both scenarios.
When Tagovailoa had a clean pocket, he was very good: a 99.3 passer rating with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions.
What’s more, the difference between Tagovailoa and Herbert with a clean pocket was negligible. Herbert had a 97.7 rating with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions with a clean pocket.
That Tagovailoa passer rating in a clean pocket was 20th among quarterbacks who started at least eight games. Herbert was 21st.
But when Tagovailoa was pressured, his passer rating fell to 45.6. His numbers when being pressured: 29 completions in 66 attempts, with no touchdowns, two interceptions, four drops and 20 sacks.
Among quarterbacks who started at least eight games, only Drew Lock (26.2 rating) was worse under pressure. Mayfield, Goff and Newton were barely ahead of Tagovailoa.
By comparison, Herbert was the best in the league in that “under pressure” metric: 99.4 rating, 110 for 193, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. (PFF describes this metric as reflecting performance on plays in which a pressure was registered.)
Among NFL starters, Aaron Rodgers (89.3 rating) and Drew Brees (88.5) were next best under pressure after Herbert. But the dropoff from Herbert at 1 to Rodgers at 2 is astounding and reflects the biggest difference in Herbert’s play compared with Tagovailoa’s.
Tagovailoa too often struggled when faced with a pass rush (like Ryan Tannehill during his Dolphins tenure) and held onto the ball too long in several cases.
▪ Tagovailoa had the seventh-shortest time to throw at 2.55 seconds, according to Next Gen stats. By comparison, Josh Allen had 3.04 seconds to throw, on average, and Mayfield had 3.05.
But I found this interesting: When Tagovailoa had less than 2.5 seconds to throw, he was very good: 99.6 passer rating, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. That passer rating was better than those, in that situation, for Herbert, Mayfield, Burrow and Tom Brady, among others.
What that tells me: When Tagovailoa throws quick short-to-intermediate routes — usually to his initial intended target, instead of needing to go through three progressions — he was effective.
When he held the ball too long, the pass rush often caved in, situations that we saw in the second half of the Broncos and Raiders games that led to his benching.
▪ One frustration with the Dolphins’ offense when Tagovailoa struggled was the fact he threw short of the first-down marker a number of times.
Per Football Outsiders, Tagovailoa had the eighth-highest difference between length of throw and distance needed for a new set of downs: 2.5, on average,a category that the website calls ALEX. But that was particularly hurtful to Tagovailoa because the Dolphins ranked 30th in yards after catch.
By comparison, Pat Mahomes was sixth in this category; his average ALEX was 2.7. But here’s the big difference: Chiefs playmakers were far better than Miami’s in taking those short throws for first downs. That’s exactly how Kansas City sealed multiple games this season, including with its late first-round conversion against Miami.
This supports the theory that the Dolphins need receivers who can generate more yards after catch.
Among impending free agent receivers, Nelson Agholor (5.0 YAC) and Chris Godwin (4.6) and Corey Davis (4.4) were above average in YAC. The Dolphins’ best receiver, DeVante Parker, was at 2.7 yards after catch, on average.
FYI: Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ALEX was 2.1. He was more aggressive throwing closer to — or beyond — the first down marker than Tagovailoa.
▪ Random stuff: Tagovailoa — with his receivers — benefited from nine pass interference penalties, compared with 10 for Fitzpatrick…. Tagovailoa had only two passes batted down. That has never been a big issue with him even though he’s shorter than most starting quarterbacks….
PFF ranked him 29th among quarterbacks, noting he got lucky with several dropped interceptions. “Some early turnover luck caught up to him late, and he finished just 29th in turnover-worthy play percentage,” PFF said. “While Tagovailoa works through his progressions quickly for a rookie, he must improve when it comes to making game-changing throws.”
Coming Wednesday: How Tagovailoa’s rookie season compared with a bunch of other prominent quarterbacks.
