The notion of adding Antetokounmpo and Oladipo in 2021? Here’s how Heat could pull it off
The Miami Heat would be content if it could merely add one additional star in the 2021 free agent class.
But even more than a year before the start of the pivotal 2021 offseason, there has been growing buzz recently about the possibility of Miami pursuing two stars next summer — joining Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to give the Heat a super team of four All-Star players.
The chatter began with The Athletic’s Shams Charania noting the Heat’s interest in adding both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Oladipo — the two players that I had identified a week earlier as Miami’s most likely targets in 2021 free agency.
And now comes a Wednesday report from the Indianapolis Star that “despite rampant speculation that he could end up with the Knicks (he fired Leon Rose of CAA, then his agent who is now president of the franchise), the strongest preliminary indication is Miami” as his next team.
The Star reported that “two league sources told IndyStar that Oladipo wants two things: the most money possible [he will be 29 next year] and the chance to win big in the playoffs.”
Oladipo, who played 13 games this season after returning from a torn right quad knee tendon, is sitting out the Pacers’ seeding and playoff games for reasons that are murky; according to the Star, he didn’t inform the team before announcing his decision publicly. Like Antetokounmpo, he can be an unrestricted free agent in 2021.
Even if the NBA salary cap drops in 2021, Miami still is on track to have room to sign either first priority Antetokounmpo (who might stay with the Bucks) or Oladipo.
But both?
It’s certainly not out of the question, though the odds would be very much against it given all the things that would need to happen for Miami to pull that off — a series of moves that arguably would be even more difficult than luring LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join Dwyane Wade in 2010.
We will explore the logistics of the two-star scenario in a minute. First, some background:
With regard to keeping max cap space in 2021, here’s what is known:
Before coronavirus, the cap was projected to rise from its current $109 million to $115 million in 2020-2021, and then to as much as $125 million in 2021-22.
Because of a dramatic decrease in league revenues caused by the pandemic, the cap assuredly will drop. To what extent, and over how many years, remains undetermined.
If the league and players union work to smooth over cap drops over several years (which is expected) instead of enduring a precipitous one-year decline, then the 2021-22 cap could end up well below the initial $125 million projection.
If the Heat declines Andre Iguodala’s $15 million option for 2021-22 (which would be expected unless he’s needed in a sign-and-trade), Miami’s cap commitments for 2021-22 include Jimmy Butler ($36 million), Tyler Herro ($4 million), Bam Adebayo (eligible for restricted free agency that summer, but his cap hit in 2021-22 will be $15.3 million regardless of what he’s paid that summer), Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson (each likely carrying $4.7 million cap hits regardless of what they’re paid as restricted free agents that summer), $4 million or so due Miami’s 2020 first-round pick, $1.4 million for both KZ Okpala and Chris Silva (nonguaranteed), Ryan Anderson’s $5.2 million hit and about $4 million in cap holds to fill out a roster.
That adds up to cap commitments of $80.7 million. If the 2021-22 cap is $115 million instead of $125 million, that would leave the Heat with $34.3 million.
And coincidentally, if there’s a $115 million cap in 2021-22, the first-year max for Antetokounmpo and Olapido would be $34.5 million, essentially giving the Heat enough room to sign one of the two.
The thinking for the Antetokounmpo/Oladipo combo scenario would be signing one of them with space and trading for the other. Miami likely would need to exercise the Iguodala player option to facilitate the trade for one of the two, either Oladipo or Antetokounmpo.
And trading, hypothetically, Nunn, Robinson, the 2020 first-round pick, Okpala and Silva to Indiana in exchange for Oladipo, and giving him a max contract, would leave the Heat without the cap space to sign Antetokounmpo to a max deal even if the cap is $125 million, which now seems highly unlikely.
Let’s say the cap is $120 million, more than $115 million but less than the original $125 million prepandemic projection for 2021. Here is what would need to happen for the Heat could put together a roster of Antetokounmpo, Oladipo, Butler and Adebayo:
▪ Pick up Iguodola’s $15 million team option before the deadline day in advance of free agency, or persuade Iguodala’s agent to push back that deadline by guaranteeing a small amount of his nonguaranteed $15 million salary for 2021-22. (More on the mechanics of this later.)
▪ Discreetly persuade Oladipo — days before 2021 free agency — to tell the Pacers he intends to sign with the Heat, and then hope that the Pacers are interested in a package of Nunn, Robinson, the Heat’s 2020 first-round pick (whoever that ends up being), the Iguodala contract, Chris Silva, KZ Okpala and perhaps a 2025 draft pick.
▪ In that scenario, here’s what would be on the Heat’s books: Butler at $36 million, Herro at $4 million, Adebayo at $15.3 million (that would be his cap hit no matter if he signs for with Miami as a restricted free agent that summer), Anderson’s $5.2 million waive-and-stretch hit, plus about $7 million in league-required cap holds for empty roster spots. That’s $67.5 million, leaving Miami with about $53 million in space if the cap is $120 million.
Considering Antetokounmpo and Oladipo can each sign for $36 million in the first year of a max deal with a $120 million camp, that’s a combined $72 million, leaving the Heat $19 million short of the cap space needed.
So what recourse would the Heat have then to pull this off?
▪ The Heat would need to trade Herro either in the Oladipo trade or preferably in exchange for a first-round pick from a team able to absorb his modest salary. That would subtract another $4 million in cap charges.
▪ Oladipo would need to settle for a first-year salary of say, $29 million, instead of $36 million, which seems unlikely in the wake of the Indianapolis Star report about the importance of money in his decision. That, plus dealing Herro, would bring savings to $11 million, leaving just $8 million to make up to give Antetokounmpo the max in this scenario.
▪ The Heat would need to hope that Anderson’s $5.2 million hit could be eliminated if the NBA passes another one-time amnesty opportunity for teams to wipe a particular player’s cap hit — but not his salary — from its books.
But here’s the problem: According to a league executive, there has been no indication that the league intends to do that, despite May media reports suggesting it’s a possibility. Perhaps that changes. But to this point, it has not come up in serious discussions.
If the Heat can wipe Anderson off its books — and we’re not expecting that — and pull off each of the aforementioned steps, the Heat would be within a couple million of being able to offer a full max deal to Antetokounmpo.
So all of these steps could make this four-All Star dream a reality. A major long shot, to be sure, for many reasons.
A few other thoughts/postscripts on this topic:
▪ If the cap remains at the originally projected $125 million, Miami could create $65 million of the $75 million needed to give two players max contracts by trading everyone except Butler and Adebayo. (First-year max salaries increase if the cap increases.) But it’s doubtful the cap remains at prepandemic projections.
▪ Forget lowering Butler’s salary; that isn’t permitted under NBA rules. Also, the Adebayo cap hit is set in stone presuming he signs for more than $15.3 million his first season of a new deal, which is a certainty barring some unexpected significant regression in production before then.
▪ What about the notion of Miami convincing Adebayo to play for, say, $7 million in 2021-22 to make room for near max deals for both Oladipo and Antetokounmpo, and asking Adebayo to wait a year on his max deal? That’s unrealistic because of the injury risk.
So is the idea of asking Adebayo to play for the midlevel exception of $10 million, well below his value.
▪ What about operating as an over-the-cap team instead of as a room team? The only way the Heat could pull this off as an over-the-cap team — instead of as a room team — is if Miami executed sign-and-trades for two stars instead of signing either outright.
But presuming Butler and Adebayo are not put in play, Miami lacks the assets to make two such trades unless it signed a bunch of free agents to multiyear deals this offseason, which would be an unorthodox and risky approach. And even then, Milwaukee (Antetokoumpo) and Indiana (Oladipo) would need to acquiesce to such trades.
▪ Going through this effort to acquire two genuine stars in 2021 (instead of one) likely isn’t even worth considering for anyone else that’s realistically available, barring a trade for Bradley Beal (under contract for 2021-22 at $34 million) or perhaps Utah restricted free agent Donovan Mitchell.
We wouldn’t consider potential 2021 free agents Paul George, LeBron James and Anthony Davis realistically available to Miami in 2021, presuming they want to remain in Los Angeles. Going through the trouble of dealing Robinson, Nunn, two draft picks and possibly Herro for Jrue Holiday likely wouldn’t be worth the trouble, either.
If Antetokoumpo comes to the Heat, I would prefer to have the players/assets needed to facilitate the Oladipo deal (Nunn, Robinson, the 2020 first-rounder, maybe the 2025 first-rounder and probably Herro for financial reasons) than Oladipo.
▪ Because Iguodala must be told two days before the start of 2021 free agency whether Miami intends to exercise his $15 million team option for 2021-22, wouldn’t it be risky to exercise that option without knowing if you can get Antetokounmpo AND Oladipo?
Yes.
But here’s the way around that: To give Miami more time to determine if Iguodala is needed as a trade chip or needed to be released, Miami and Iguodala’s agent could agree for Miami to pick up the option but change the terms so that he could be cut say, eight days into free agency, with only $2 million of the $15 million guaranteed. Such a scenario would be permitted, a league executive said.
▪ This gets convoluted, but if the Heat keeps Robinson and Nunn past 2021, their cap hits for 2021-22 likely would be $4.7 million regardless of what Miami pays them as restricted free agents that summer. But for cap purposes in a hypothetical sign-and-trade with Indiana for Oladipo, the value of their contracts would be half of what their new annual salary is.
So, say, Indiana gave Robinson and Nunn contracts starting at $14 million. Miami would be sending back about $40 million in cap hits for Oladipo — Iguodala ($15 million), Robinson and Nunn ($7 million each — half of their $14 million hypothetical salary), Herro ($4 million), Okpala ($1.4 million), Silva ($1.4 million) and a 2020 first-rounder (about $4 million). That’s about $40 million, which meets league cap rules.
The daunting obstacles to this pie-in-the-sky plan? There are many.
Here’s the biggest: Antetokounmpo not only agreeing to join the Heat but taking a bit below max money. And Oladipo agreeing to take several million under the max to play in South Florida, where he spends time in the offseason and reportedly has part-ownership in a gym.
My two cents: If you can get Antetokounmpo with cap space (which likely wouldn’t even be much of a possibility if the Bucks win a championship this season or next), do that and forget about Oladipo.
Getting Oladipo as a fourth All-Star, for all of his gifts, is not worth the cap calisthenics and asset loss of Nunn, Robinson, Herro, Okpala, Silva and two first-rounders even if everything miraculously fell into place to achieve it.
But pursue Oladipo or Holiday — or a trade for Beal or a 2021 restricted free agent (such as Mitchell or De’Aaron Fox) — if you don’t get Antetokounmpo.
NEWS NOTE
A day after busing to Lake Buena Vista, the Heat spent Thursday quarantining at their hotel at the Wide World of Disney sports complex — an NBA requirement for 36-48 hours after teams arrive. Players must test negative twice for COVID-19 before they are permitted to leave their rooms.
The Heat is tentatively scheduled to hold its first practice at Disney on Friday afternoon.
