An early look at the Miami Heat’s quest to land another All-Star and the most likely names
So what if the Heat doesn’t get Giannis Antetokounmpo in the summer of 2021?
That’s the question for the Heat to mull during the next year, with Miami still expected to have cap space for a max free agent even if there’s a moderate drop in the 2021 cap. And with the NBA expected to resume play in late July, it’s something for Heat fans to keep in mind as they watch players around the league.
I’m not including potential 2021 free agents LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on this list based on the expectation they will remain in Los Angeles, barring something unforeseen.
While Antetokounmpo certainly remains a possibility for Miami, here’s how I would rank the Heat’s next best/most likely non-Giannis options, factoring in the quality of the player, Heat interest (at least what’s known of it) and how realistic it is:
▪ Indiana guard Victor Oladipo (2021 unrestricted free agent): He trains in South Florida in the offseason, and from all indications, likes South Florida. The Heat likes his game.
And there’s this: ESPN reported that the Pacers and Oladipo had talks about an extension before the season but concluded it was best to table those discussions.
SNY reported that at one point in those conversations, the Pacers broached a four-year extension for around $80 million. Talks didn’t progress much from there.
Oladipo returned to the court in January after missing more than a calendar year with a ruptured quadriceps tendon and was predictably rusty, averaging 13.8 points and shooting 39.1 percent from the field and 30.4 percent on threes. But he averaged 23.1 points in 78 games in 2017-18 and 18.8 in 36 games in 2018-19.
I would put him No. 1 on the most likely list if Miami doesn’t get Antetokounmpo, and if he returns to his old form — two big ifs.
▪ Pelicans point guard Jrue Holiday (potential 2021 unrestricted free agent): There was Heat interest in the months before the trade deadline, but New Orleans wasn’t interested.
But Holiday would be close to Oladipo in terms of Heat interest/possibilities, presuming Holiday opts out of $26.3 million for 2021-22. A case could be made for Holiday over Oladipo, if Holiday outperforms him over the next 14 months.
Holiday, at 29, is only a year older than Oladipo and would give Miami a 19.6-per-game scorer (35.7 percent on threes) who was first-team All NBA defense in 2018 and second team in 2019.
▪ Washington guard Bradley Beal (not a 2021 free agent): This would require a trade, because he cannot opt out until the summer of 2022.
Beal has repeatedly said he’s committed to the Wizards, but expressed frustration with losing last season and told me that he considered the Heat before committing long-term to Washington last October. He holds the Heat in high regard.
Whether he demands a trade will hinge in large part on whether the Wizards are more competitive next season, with the return of John Wall. And even if they’re not, the Wizards could rebuff any Beal trade request until sometime during the 2021-22 season.
▪ Chris Paul (not a 2021 free agent): This, on the surface, has become less likely because an expected drop in the cap in 2021 means the Heat would not have the cap space to absorb the $44 million on the final year of his contract (2021-22) without sending a player or two back to OKC. And I’m not sure what Miami would be willing to give up among significant-salaried players it would have at that time (restricted free agents Bam Adebayo, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson), Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and its 2020 first-round pick.
The Heat would have about $37 million in 2021 cap space if the 2021-22 cap drops from its $125 million projection to $115 million.
.▪ Celtics small forward Gordon Hayward (unrestricted free agent in 2021 if he opts into $34.2 million next season, as expected): It’s difficult to envision a max offer — and Miami couldn’t do that anyway if the cap drops — but the qualities that appealed to the Heat still exist.
When the season stopped, he was averaging 17.3 points and 6.5 rebounds for Boston while shooting 50.2 percent from the field and 39.2 percent on threes, and he’s only 30.
▪ Nets point guard Spencer Dinwiddie (unrestricted in 2021): The 6-5 combo guard would be an interesting secondary option if he opts out of $12.3 million for 2021-22. He was averaging 20.6 points and 6.8 assists, and he’s only 26.
The big concern: He’s shooting 30.8 percent on threes this season and 31.8 in his career, and the Heat — like many teams — values three-point shooting with their point guards. If he becomes a better three-point shooter, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Heat inquires if Giannis/Oladipo/Holiday/Beal don’t materialize.
▪ Suns forward Kelly Oubre Jr. (unrestricted in 2021): He’s due to be unrestricted in 2021, and I wouldn’t rule this out if he keeps developing. He averaged 18.7 points and 6.4 rebounds and shot 35.2 on threes for Phoenix and he’s only 24.
▪ Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (unrestricted in 2021): Because he will turn 35 next March, Lowry looms as a one-year option for Miami if the Heat misses out on a handful of other targets. He’s still very good (19.7 points, 7.7 assists this season) and will earn $30.5 million next season.
OTHERS
Heat fans can dream of Joel Embiid or Ben Simmons if the 76ers continue to underachieve, but any Heat offer satisfactory to Philadelphia would need to include Adebayo and other appealing assets. Embiid can be a free agent in 2023, Simmons in 2025….
Guards CJ McCollom (under contract through June 2024) and Damian Lillard ($54 million player option for 2024-25) become options if Portland wants to break up their team…
Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell can be a restricted free agent in 2021, and Utah obviously is going to match any offer. The expectation is that Mitchell and 2021 unrestricted free agent Rudy Gobert patch up any coronavirus-prompted tensions between the two. I don’t put Gobert high on this list because for all of his defensive excellence, he’s not a three-point shooter, and coach Erik Spoelstra likes a big with range playing with Adebayo....
As for the two Spurs whose names were raised with Miami before the trade deadline: Swingman DeMar DeRozan remains a player the Heat likes should he opt in for $27.7 million next season (a near certainty) and become a free agent in 2021. But he would be an option only if several other likely Heat targets sign elsewhere, and if he accepted way below max money…
Riley has always liked potential 2021 Spurs free agent LaMarcus Aldridge, but he will be 36 to start the 2021-22 season and spoke recently of wanting to finish his career where he is now (San Antonio) or where he started (Portland)...
76ers swingman Josh Richardson would hit the market in 2021 if he opts out of $12.6 million. He left Miami — via the Butler trade — on good terms and with considerable respect from the Heat staff, but Miami already has players of similar quality at his positions. Same applies with Chicago’s Otto Porter Jr., Orlando’s Evan Fournier and Dallas’ Tim Hardaway Jr. (all three will be 2021 free agents if they exercise player opt-ins this summer, as expected) and Raptors shooting guard Norman Powell (16.4 points, 39.8 percent on threes); he can opt out of $11.6 million in the summer of 2021…
Kings power forward Nemanja Bjelica (11.9 points, 42.4 percent on threes) would be a fourth- or fifth-tier option if his play keeps ascending...
Aside from Mitchell, perhaps one of several big-name 2021 restricted free agents becomes disgruntled and asks for a trade. There’s no indication point guard De’Aaron Fox wants to leave the Kings, but he’s a 2021 free agent worth monitoring. Everyone knows the success the Heat has had with Kentucky players (Adebayo, Herro etc.)....
The top free agents this summer (forwards Montrezl Harrell, Serge Ibaka, Danilo Gallinari) would be potential Heat targets in 2021 only if they sign one-year deals this summer.
Here’s my Monday UM football six-pack.
Here’s my Monday Dolphins story with news on how many fans could be allowed to watch games at Hard Rock Stadium this season.
This story was originally published June 1, 2020 at 5:19 PM.
