A look at Marlins’ outfield prospects and why the organization is so excited about them
With sports on hiatus, we’re taking a look at the Marlins’ farm system, which is now widely considered among the top five in baseball.
Keep in mind that minor-league baseball reportedly will be canceled this season because of COVID-19, meaning the Marlins’ prospects might be limited to instructional league games in Jupiter. The Marlins have agreed to continue paying their minor-leaguers regardless.
In Part 3 of a five-part series, we examine the Marlins’ top 10 outfield prospects:
JJ BLEDAY
▪ Where he stands: The Marlins sent their first-round pick straight to High A Jupiter last season, and he performed competently, hitting .257 with three homers and 19 RBI in 38 games. He went 3 for 13 in spring training.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him second among Marlins prospects and 28th among all MLB prospects.
▪ What they’re saying Part 1: Marlins executive Michael Hill: “We couldn’t be happier with what he was able to do in his first taste of professional baseball. We batted him at the top of the lineup and the middle of that order, and he held his own and showed the things we feel are going to allow him to be a successful big-league player in the future.”
▪ What they’re saying Part 2: From MLB.com: “Before he broke out as a slugger, Bleday first emerged as an advanced hitter with a sweet left-handed stroke and a disciplined, all-fields approach. His bat speed, strength and the leverage in his 6-foot-3 frame give him power to all parts of the ballpark. He walked more than he struck out in each of his three seasons at Vanderbilt, and the only hole in his offensive game is that he’s a below-average runner who won’t do much on the bases....
“Bleday makes up for his lack of speed with good defensive instincts, projecting as a solid right fielder. He was a two-way prospect as a Florida high schooler, and his plus arm adds to his right-field profile. Expected to open 2020 in Double A, he should make his debut in Miami at some point next year.”
▪ The projection: From fangraphs.com: “We expect him to move pretty quickly and be an above-average everyday player. He murders offspeed stuff, has all-fields ability, and can mishit balls with power. He’s a complete offensive package. He’s also pretty fast, and his instincts in the outfield could make him a plus corner defender.”
JESUS SANCHEZ
▪ Where he stands: Sanchez, acquired from Tampa Bay before the trade deadline, hit .246 with four homers and nine RBI in 17 games for the Marlins’ Triple A affiliate after hitting .275 with eight homers and 49 RBI in 78 games for the Rays’ Double A affiliate and .206 in 18 games for Tampa’s Triple A affiliate.
Sanchez displayed his potential by going 6 for 12 with a homer and three RBI in Marlins spring training.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him fourth among Marlins prospects and 80th among all MLB prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: From MLB.com: “Though Sanchez has a smooth left-handed swing, tremendous bat speed and a knack for making hard contact, he’ll have to make some adjustments to reach his offensive ceiling.
“His lack of plate discipline has cut into his production at the upper levels, and his propensity to hit the ball on the ground doesn’t allow him to fully tap into his power potential. If he can become more selective and drive more balls in the air, he could be a .280 hitter with 25 homers on an annual basis.
“Though Miami gave Sanchez some time in center field following the trade, he spent most of last season in right field and profiles best there. He’s an average runner with the instincts to fill in up the middle and play as a solid defender on the corners. He has a solid arm but could move to left field once he and 2019 first-rounder JJ Bleday team up on the Marlins.”
▪ The metrics perspective: From fangraphs: “We, and much of the industry, are scared of corner-only prospects who clearly lack plate discipline, and Sanchez is one of these (6.5 percent career walk rate). That, plus Sanchez’s swing still not being fully actualized for power,.... means he’s fighting an uphill battle to get to his huge raw power in games, since he’s either swinging at pitches he can’t do anything with or failing to lift a lot of the ones he can.
“However, Sanchez has some of the most thrilling bat speed in the minors and despite his issues, his talent has enabled him to perform statistically so far.”
▪ The projection: Fangraphs expects him to be at least an average everyday player, with an All-Star ceiling.
MONTE HARRISON
▪ Where he stands: Harrison missed time with two different injuries but finished last season hitting .274 with nine homers and 24 RBI, plus 20 for 22 in stolen-base attempts, in 56 games at Triple A New Orleans.
He was impressive in spring training, hitting .364 (8 for 22) with four RBI and six steals. The Marlins optioned him to the minors before a freeze on roster moves was put in place.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him ninth among Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: Manager Don Mattingly: “Does some things we really like. Has got speed. A guy that impacts the ball. Plays with energy.”
Hill: “Tremendous promise, tremendous high-end talent.”
▪ The metrics perspective: One encouraging sign last season is his strikeout rate dropped from 36.9 percent in 2018 to 29.9 percent in 2019. He struck out in 7 of 22 spring at-bats.
▪ The projection: Fangraphs expects him to become “average everyday player…. But the swing-and-miss tendencies, as well as the possibility that Harrison has some huge seasons if he ever hits for power, mean he’s a high-variance player.”
KAMERON MISNER
▪ Where he stands: The Marlins’ second-round pick in June hit .276 with two homers and 20 RBI in 24 games at low A Clinton, Iowa, while stealing eight bases in eight attempts. He was 0 for 1 this spring.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him 12th among Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying Part 1: Hill: “He [was in] the middle of that Clinton lineup. We see his speed, power, defense on display.”
▪ What they’re saying Part 2: From fangraphs: “He’s a high-risk college bat who needs a swing tweak.”
▪ The projection: The fact he hit only .222 against SEC pitching was the red flag before last year’s draft, but the tools are intoxicating. The upside is high.
CONNOR SCOTT
▪ Where he stands: A year after being selected 13th overall, the 19-year-old center fielder showed promise, earning a promotion to Jupiter after hitting .251 with four homers and 36 RBI in 95 games at Clinton. At Jupiter, he hit .235 with five RBI in 27 games. He stole 21 of 30 bases in Clinton and two of three attempts in Jupiter.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him 13th among Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: Hill: “It’s speed, hitability and power [that we like]. We haven’t seen the power come to fruition yet because he’s only 19.”
▪ The projection: From fangraphs: “Scott’s frame is broad in the shoulders but otherwise narrow throughout, so he may never grow into big strength, which just makes him more likely to retain his plus speed. Unless unforeseen feel for lift develops, Scott profiles as a table-setting center fielder.”
PEYTON BURDICK
▪ Where he stands: The Marlins’ third-round pick last June hit .307 with 10 homers, 59 RBI and 20 doubles in 63 games at Clinton, with a .408 on-base percentage.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him 14th among Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: Hill: “With Burdick, that ability to drive in runs is a special ability.”
▪ The projection: Fangraphs said he might develop into “a four- or five-hole masher: Perhaps no prospect from the 2019 draft buoyed industry opinion during the summer as much as Burdick, who leveled the Midwest League after he signed.”
JERAR ENCARNACION
▪ Where he stands: Hit .253 with six homers and 28 RBI in 68 games at Jupiter after hitting .298 with 10 homers and 43 RBI in 68 games earlier this season in Clinton. Impressed everyone this spring by going 6 for 14 with two homers and four RBI.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him 15th among Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: Marlins minor-league manager Mike Jacobs, to Herald correspondent Walter Villa: “Offensively, he has power to all fields. What has surprised a lot of people is how good a two-strike hitter he is . . . as long as he doesn’t chase. For a big guy, he plays the outfield well. You wouldn’t think he can cover as much ground as he does, but he seems to come out of nowhere to make catches.”
▪ The projection: From fangraphs: “Even among polished peers in the Fall League, Encarnacion’s strength and physicality was a cut above, and he should mash his way into a modest big-league role within the next couple of years.”
VICTOR MESA JR.
▪ Where he stands: The 17-year-old .hit 284 with one homer and 27 RBI in 47 games in rookie league (the Gulf Coast League). The Marlins see big-league upside there.
▪ Ranking: MLB. com ranks him 21st among Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: From fangraphs.com: “Victor Jr. has plus instincts and feel to hit, giving him a chance to profile as a glove/contact-oriented center fielder. There’s enough of a frame and leverage in the swing to project for some in-game power down the line.”
▪ The projection: Two scouts who evaluated both Mesa brothers told me they believe Victor Jr. has more big-league upside.
VICTOR VICTOR MESA
▪ Where he stands: Showed promise at Jupiter after a slow start (.252, 26 RBI, 15 for 17 in steals) but struggled in his 27 games at Double A Jacksonville (.178).
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him 26th among Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: From fangraphs.com: “We still think there’s a chance for Victor Victor to be a fourth outfielder, but something with the swing needs to change to enable more in-game power or there will just be better bench outfield candidates hanging around.”
▪ The projection: One scout told me he would be very surprised if he becomes a big-league starter. He also criticized Mesa’s effort, saying it didn’t appear as if he was always playing at full speed.
DIOWILL BURGOS
▪ Where he stands: Acquired from the Cardinals for Austin Dean in January, Burgos is an intriguing corner outfield prospect. Hit .316, 11 homers and 50 RBI in 58 games in rookie ball for the Cardinals and the Domincan Summer League last season.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him 29th among Marlins prospects. But fangraphs has him 19th among all Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: From fangraphs: “The sweet-swinging Burgos has a left-handed cut that looks like Robinson Cano’s. We have increased confidence that Burgos will continue to hit for power because of his hitting hands’ talent.”
▪ The projection: Fangraphs says he projects as an average everyday player.
Here’s part 1 of the series with a look at the Marlins’ top left-handed pitching prospects.
Here’s part 2 of the series with a look at the Marlins’ top right-handed pitching prospects.
