Buzz on Marlins’ top lefty prospects and the pitcher with the remarkable scoreless streak
With sports remaining on hiatus, we’re taking inventory of the Marlins’ farm system this week with a five-part series on the top Marlins’ prospects.
Keep in mind that minor-league baseball reportedly will be canceled this season because of COVID-19, meaning the Marlins prospects might be limited to instructional league games in Jupiter.
Today, in part 1, a look at the top left-handed pitchers in the system, a group that could be supplemented if Miami takes Texas A&M left-hander Asa Lacy with the third overall pick in the June 10 MLB amateur draft:
TREVOR ROGERS
▪ Where he stands: Under normal circumstances, he was likely to begin the season at Double A Jacksonville. The Marlins’ 2017 first-round pick went 5-8 with a 2.53 ERA at Single A Jupiter, then 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in five starts at Double A Jacksonville last season. He struck out 150 in 136 combined innings, with 122 hits relinquished.
▪ Ranking: Rated eighth on MLB.com’s list of top 30 Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: Marlins executive Michael Hill: “When you see him on the attack, you see the best version of him. You love his pitch package. You see his growth as a young man.”
▪ The metrics perspective, via fangraphs.com: “The lack of a traditional breaking ball will likely be a barrier to true mid-rotation performance. And it’s more likely that, if Rogers is ever to be a No. 3/4 starter, he does so via continued improvement of a hopefully elite changeup or command, rather than the unlikely addition of a viable breaking ball.”
▪ The projection: One scout who evaluated the Marlins told me he could envision Rogers as a middle-to-back-end starter if he keeps developing.
BRAXTON GARRETT
▪ Where he stands: The Marlins’ 2016 first-rounder, who missed all of 2018 after Tommy John surgery, threw well last season at Jupiter (6-6, 3.34 ERA, 118 strikeouts and 92 hits allowed in 105 innings). He made one start at Jacksonville, allowing four runs in 1 2/3 innings.
And the Marlins believe there’s another level he can get to as he moves further away from Tommy John.
▪ Ranking: No. 6 on MLB’s list of top 30 Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: Hill: “We’re all extremely pleased where he has come, coming back from injury his first year back.”
▪ The metrics perspective: From fangraphs.com, which projects him as a back-end-of-the rotation starter: “At his best, Garrett was living in the low-90s and locating his quality breaking ball to his glove side, which gave him two weapons against right-handed hitters (the changeup is also good) and a finisher versus lefties. His arm action is still short and efficient, same as it was before the surgery, and his pre-injury velocity is back.”
▪ The projection: Before the Tommy John surgery, there was hope Garrett could be a top half of the rotation starter.
Those hopes haven’t dissipated, but you would like to see fewer base-runners; he allowed 136 (including 40 walks) in 106 ⅔ innings last season, mostly at Jupiter. He struck out 119 in those 106 ⅔ innings, which is encouraging.
ALEX VESIA
▪ Where he stands: The 18th round pick in the 2018 draft is now the top left-handed reliever in the Marlins system after a dominating 2019, in which he pitched at three levels (two in Class A, one in Double A) and allowed 44 hits and 19 walks in 66 ⅔ innings, while striking out 100 and limiting hitters to a .187 average.
He finished last season on a 35 inning scoreless streak and pitched six scoreless innings in spring training, allowing only one hit and striking out five. He has a chance to make it to the big leagues this season, if there is a season.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him as the Marlins’ 27th best prospect.
▪ What they’re saying: Hill: “Tremendous 2019; ended up in Double A and had a tremenedous fall league. A player not taken high; tremendous work ethic and is taking advantage of all his opportunities. He’s doing everything he can to get himself to the big leagues.”
▪ From fangraphs: “Vesia’s fastball works in the low-90s but it approaches hitters at a very flat angle, and his delivery is tough to time. That, plus his changeup, should enable him to play a valuable bullpen role quite soon.”
▪ The projection: Vesia’s fastball, which tops out in the mid-90s, is an effective set-up for his changeup. The effective two-pitch mix — paired with a curveball — makes him not only a candidate to join the big-league team this year, but also to earn consideration as a potential closer eventually.
WILL STEWART
▪ Where he stands: The third piece of the JT Realmuto trade with Philadelphia regressed last season, going 6-12 with a 5.43 ERA at Jupiter, allowing 179 base-runners in 129 ⅓ innings. The previous year, he was 8-1 with a 2.06 ERA in low-level A ball for the Phillies. The Marlins left him exposed in the Rule 5 draft but he wasn’t selected.
▪ Ranking: Fangraphs rates him the Marlins’ No. 34 prospect.
▪ What they’re saying: From fangraphs: “Stewart’s velocity tanked last year, and he topped out at just 91 mph after he sat 88-92 the year before. His groundball rate dropped from 62 percent to 51 percent, and he gave up more homers in 2019 than he had in his entire career. He’s a bounce-back candidate who projects as a No. 5 starter if his sinker velocity comes back.”
▪ The projection: He’s only 22 and has a solid sinker, so perhaps he can be salvaged. But after last season, it’s difficult to project much of anything until he begins having some success again.
LUIS PALACIOS
▪ Where he stands: Still early in his development. Went 1-0 with a 1.12 ERA in 10 games, including four starts, in rookie league last season, with 25 hits and just two walks allowed in 40 innings, with 42 strikeouts.
▪ The ranking: Fangraphs ranks him 39th among all Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: From fangraphs: “He is fairly deceptive and obviously throws a lot of strikes, but we’re skeptical of the stuff playing at the upper levels unless Palacios grows into more heat than we expect.”
▪ The projection: Though scouts aren’t wowed by him, his exceptional performance in his first three seasons in the lowest levels of the minors - 2.09 ERA, 13-0 record and just 21 walks and 97 hits permitted in 150 2/3 innings - has put him on the radar at age 19.
Coming next: A look at the Marlins’ top right-handed pitching prospects.
This story was originally published May 25, 2020 at 9:51 PM.
