Here’s the explanation and the data explaining why Miami Heat is so much worse on the road
Players and coaches have discussed it for months, trying to reconcile how this Heat team can be sterling at home (27-4) and substandard on the road (13-19).
“I don’t have an answer for it,” Bam Adebayo politely repeated Friday for the umpteenth time in recent weeks. “When we get on the road, we expect energy just to happen. And it’s not and we’ve got to figure it out.”
Or, as Jimmy Butler said Friday, “It’s our lack of urgency on the road. That’s what it all comes down to. It’s been like that all year long. We’re constantly saying we’re going to fix it and we lay an egg like we did in the first half” Friday.
The latest setback was Friday’s 110-104 loss at New Orleans, Miami’s 10th road defeat in its past 13 games. The quick two-game trip ends Sunday in Washington, with the Heat trying to avoid what would be a ninth road loss to a sub-.500 team since Jan. 9.
“You look around like, ‘Geez, it’s happening again,’” Duncan Robinson said Friday. “We know we’re a good team. We know we can beat good teams. We know we’re capable of putting 48 minutes together on the road. It hasn’t come together. It’s one of the things we’ve really struggled with. The good news is we still have time to figure it out - 19 games left, 9 on the road.”
It’s notable that the two Heat All-Stars - Butler and Adebayo - haven’t played worse on the road this season, from a statistical standpoint.
Adebayo is averaging 16.1 points at home compared to 15.8 on the road and averages more rebounds on the road. Butler averages more points on the road (21.2 to 19.7) and shoots much better on the road (48.3 percent to 42.5).
What’s more, Meyers Leonard - who has missed a month with an ankle injury - has been significantly better on the road, shooting 50.7 percent on threes away from home compared with 29.5 percent at American Airlines Arena. Jae Crowder’s numbers have been comparable home/road, and so have Derrick Jones Jr.’s.
And Miami’s team turnover and rebounding numbers are very similar home and away.
So how do you explain the enormous disparity between home and road records?
Defense has a lot to do with it. Miami allows 107 points per 100 possessions at home, which is the NBA’s 13th best defensive rating at home. On the road, the Heat relinquishes 111.2 points per 100 possessions (15th in the league).
What’s more, Miami has permitted 599 points off opponent turnovers on the road, compared with 524 at home.
“It’s lack of communication,” Adebayo said of the Heat’s penchant for allowing more turnovers converted into baskets on the road. “Sometimes we throw passes and somebody is not looking. I threw Derrick [Jones] a bad one [Friday]. I’ve got to take better care of the ball.”
And there’s this: The Heat is holding opposing three-point shooters to 33 percent accuracy at AmericanAirlines Arena (third best in the NBA) and 390 makes. On the road, those numbers balloon to 35.5 percent (10th best) and 428 makes.
But the offensive long-range shooting component is an even bigger factor. Kelly Olynyk is shooting an absurd 51.7 percent on threes at home, just 36.6 on the road. Dragic is at 42.4 on threes at home, 33.8 on the road; he averages nearly 19 points at home, 15 on the road.
And the Heat’s three young wings - Robinson, Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn - also have been substantially better shooters at home.
Robinson shoots 51.4 percent on threes at home, 39.0 on the road.
Nunn’s numbers on threes are 39 percent at home, 32.1 on the road.
Herro is 42.2 on three-pointers at home, 36.3 on the road. All three players average two to three more points at home.
So what causes this?
“Familiarity,” Robinson said. “Routine is big. Sometimes on the road, routine changes. I’m a big routine guy. But also playing in front of your fans [is a factor]. You have a certain level of confidence. It’s something I want to improve on.” He did Friday, sinking 8 of 14 threes in New Orleans.
On threes, Miami is shooting a league-best 41.1 percent at home, with 437 conversions. On the road, Miami is shooting 35.4 percent on threes (14th in the league), with 382 makes.
That’s why it’s vital the Heat gets homecourt advantage in the first round, with fourth-seeded Miami holding a two-game lead over Indiana and Philadelphia entering Saturday.
“It’s something we will get corrected,” Erik Spoelstra said of his team’s road struggles. “It’s frustrating to all of us in the locker room. It’s not for lack of preparation or want. We have to do something to get that synapse to change when we’re not at AmericanAirlines Arena.”
Here’s my Saturday Heat notebook with player reaction on the possibility of playing in empty arenas because of coronavirus (LeBron James says he won’t), Bam Adebayo’s memorable encounter with a Hall of Famer and more.
Here’s some perspective on Duncan Robinson’s historical season.
This story was originally published March 7, 2020 at 3:29 PM.
