Heat’s Duncan Robinson on verge of NBA history. Some perspective on what he’s achieving
Duncan Robinson’s three-point shooting this season isn’t merely destined for the Heat record books. It’s also on pace to be recognized as one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NBA history, perhaps the best by any player not named Steph Curry.
And he’s among three Heat players who are in the midst of achieving historical distinctions from three-point range.
With 225 threes entering Friday’s game in New Orleans, Robinson was on the verge of breaking Wayne Ellington’s franchise record for threes in a season (227). But he has a chance to accomplish something more significant from an historical standpoint.
He’s on pace for 298 three-pointers, which would be fifth-most in a season in NBA history, behind three seasons by Steph Curry (who hit a record 402 in 2016-17) and one season by James Harden. With Harden having made 261 threes this season and Buddy Hield 235, Robinson realistically could finish ranked sixth or seventh all-time for threes in a single season.
But accuracy is where Robinson gets a clear edge over any 3-point shooter other than Curry, if comparing single seasons historically.
He entered Friday shooting 44.6 percent on threes, by far the best for any of the five players who have hit at least 200 threes this season (Harden, Hield, Damian Lillard, Devonte’ Graham).
Only one player with 250 or more threes in a season (a threshold Robinson should surpass) has ever shot threes as well as Robinson has this season: Curry, who shot 45.4 percent during that season he made a record 402 threes. Three times, Curry has made more than 250 threes in a season while shooting 44 percent or better.
As perspective, Golden State’s Klay Thompson twice has hit 250 or more threes in a season (268 and 276) and converted at a 41.4 and 42.5 percent clip in those seasons. And Harden has shot between 34.7 and 36.7 percent during each of the four seasons that he has hit 250 or more threes, including 36.8 when he sank 378 threes last season.
In fact, only three players in history have done what Robinson is doing from a volume/percentage standpoint: Make at least 200 threes while converting at a rate of 44.6 percent or higher: Curry, JJ Redick (200 for 421, 47.5 percent in 2016-17) and Kyle Korver (221 for 449, 49.2 percent in 2014-15). And Robinson will hit far more threes this season than Redick or Korver did their seasons.
“How much he’s improved is incredible,” Erik Spoelstra said. “His accuracy on those tough ones is really unique.”
Bottom line: If Robinson remains at his current pace and shooting percentage, this would rank among the best 3-point shooting seasons in NBA history for a player not named Curry, perhaps the best if you believe it’s more impressive to hit 298 threes on 44.6 percent shooting (Robinson’s current pace) than Harden’s 378 on 36.8 percent shooting last season (the only non-Curry season that would measure up to Robinson’s current pace).
Two other Robinson distinctions: His 235 NBA threes are by far the most for a player over his first 77 games. And he’s tied with Damon Jones for most threes by an undrafted player.
While Robinson has attempted 505 threes, he has taken only 69 two-point attempts, making 42 (a 60.9 percent clip).
Meanwhile, two other Heat players have a chance to make more obscure three-point history in different ways.
Meyers Leonard, who remains out indefinitely with an ankle injury, has become the best 7-foot three-point shooter, by field goal percentage standpoint, in NBA history. Dirk Nowitzki is the best three-point shooter among 7-footers overall, but Leonard holds the higher percentage (39.2 to 38).
And there’s this: In NBA history, few players who were traded during the season have made such a dramatic jump in three-point shooting from one team to another as Jae Crowder has.
Crowder has gone from shooting 29.3 on three pointers in Memphis to 41.8 in 11 games with Miami.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the largest increase in three-point FG percentage by a player who went from one team to another in a single season with a minimum of 30 threes made with each team is 13.3 by Mo Williams in 2010-11. Williams shot 26.5 percent on threes with Cleveland that season, and then shot 39.8 percent on threes with the Clippers.
Crowder has taken a 12.5 percent jump.
HERRO UPDATE
Though guard Tyler Herro didn’t appear at all limited in on-court work with teammates on Wednesday, he didn’t accompany the Heat for this weekend’s trip to New Orleans and Washington, meaning his absence due to a foot/ankle injury will extend through at least 16 games.
Erik Spoelstra declined to give an update. But the belief is that his return is close.
▪ The Heat smartly plucked Kendrick Nunn off the Golden State Warriors’ G-League team last season, and he now ranks among the league’s top rookie scorers. Then Miami, in January, snagged Gabe Vincent from the Warriors’ G-League team and gave him a two-way contract.
But now the Warriors are trying to do what the Heat did to them.
Michael Mulder, the former Kentucky guard who was smartly signed by the Heat before training camp, has been a revelation while on a 10-day contract for the Warriors.
Through five games, Mulder has hit 13 of 38 threes while averaging 11.2 points and 3.6 assists in five games.
The Heat instead opted to give a two-way deal to Vincent.
“I really like him,” Spoelstra said of Vincent. “He’s having a G League season comparable to what Duncan did last year. He’s a great shooter and somebody we think we can continue to develop his off ball game where he can become really dynamic.”
Forward/center Kyle Alexander was signed to Miami’s other two-day contract after Chris Silva was given a standard deal.
