Both lead TV draft analysts released mock drafts. Here are Dolphins-flavored takeaways
Mock drafts — especially mock drafts in January — should never be taken too seriously. But now that the lead analysts who work for the two cable networks that televise the draft have produced their first mocks — NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah did his last week, ESPN’s Mel Kiper released his this week — five quick Dolphins-flavored thoughts, with Miami owning the fifth, 18th and 26th picks in the first round:
▪ Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is, of course, the Dolphins’ pick at No. 5 in both drafts, because that’s required by federal law, apparently.
Kiper wonders: “Do you redshirt him? If he’s ready, fine. If not, put him on the shelf for the year.”
Jeremiah said: “He can sit behind Ryan Fitzpatrick for a season while he recovers from hip surgery.”
After the obvious selections of LSU quarterback Joe Burrow at No. 1 (to Cincinnati) and Ohio State defensive end Chase Young at No. 2 (to Washington), both Kiper and Jeremiah have the Lions taking Ohio State cornerback Jeffrey Okudah at No. 3, though Detroit ultimately could trade that pick to a team coveting Tua (such as the Dolphins) and move back a bit in the first round.
At No. 4, Kiper has Clemson outside linebacker Isaiah Simmons as the Giants’ pick; Jeremiah has Louisville offensive tackle Mechi Becton as the selection there.
▪ The Dolphins covet edge rushers and there are handful who could be in the mix at 18 and 26.
Kiper has Miami taking one of them, LSU outside linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson, at 18.
Kiper said: “The Dolphins this season had the fewest sacks on defense [23] and also allowed the most sacks on offense [58], so they have huge holes on both sides of the trenches. And while they would probably love to grab an offensive tackle with their second first-rounder, my top four are all off the board here.
“The ascending Chaisson makes a ton of sense with this pick, as Miami can bet on the upside of a twitchy pass-rusher with elite quickness who ended his college career with just 9.5 sacks. Now, that includes a season lost to injury, but there is still some risk here. At 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, Chaisson has room to grow on his frame.”
It’s possible’s Iowa’s AJ Epenesa could be there at 18; both Kiper and Jeremiah have him going 16th to Atlanta.
If you wait until 26 for an edge rusher, options would include Wisconsin’s Zack Baun (stock has risen; Kiper has him 27th, Jeremiah 31st); Boise State’s Curtis Weaver (in neither draftnik’s first-round mock), Auburn’s Marlon Davidson (Jeremiah has him 29th) and Penn State’s Yetur Gross-Matos (Kiper has him 29th).
▪ Yes, I know you can find skilled running backs after the first round. But the thinking is that there’s a clear drop-off after Georgia’s D’Andre Swift, Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor and Ohio State’s JK Dobbins, and no assurance that any will last to the Dolphins’ two picks in the second round (though Taylor’s fumble problems are pause for thought).
That, combined with Miami’s glaring need, explains why Jeremiah has Miami taking Swift at 18 and Kiper has Swift as the pick at 26.
“Swift is a big-play threat and all-around back who will contribute in the passing game, and he’d make life easier on Tagovailoa [or whoever starts under center in 2020], Kiper said. “I actually have a higher grade on Swift than [Raiders rookie standout] Josh Jacobs, who went No. 24 a year ago. Again, though, this team has several positions it could target, so this is fluid.”
Kiper said Swift is a “complete running back, which gives him an edge over the other backs. You can even put him in the slot. Ball security is very good.”
▪ Whether the Dolphins can find a starting left tackle at 18 or 26 is questionable, dependent almost entirely on who — if anyone — falls and how the Dolphins evaluate Houston’s Josh Jones and Southern California’s Austin Jackson (whom Jeremiah slots to Miami at No. 26).
Kiper, in assessing Miami’s options at 26, says: “I mentioned the Dolphins’ need at offensive line earlier, and this is certainly a spot to watch for linemen who rise at the combine, but I just don’t have one graded this highly at this point.”
Kiper, by the point, has five offensive tackles off the board: Georgia’s Andrew Thomas (eighth), Becton (10th), Alabama’s Jedrick Wills (11th) Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs (14th) and Houston’s Josh Jones 25th.
It’s highly doubtful Thomas or Becton or Wills falls to 18th; Wirfs could and that would be tempting. And Jones, who helped himself at the Senior Bowl this week, would be an appealing option if he’s there at 26.
“A four year starter for the Cougars, Jones has had a great week down in Mobile, Alabama, at the Senior Bowl, and I feel good about making him the fifth offensive tackle of this first round,” Kiper said in mocking Jones to Minnesota at No. 25, one spot before the Dolphins’ third first-rounder, via Houston.
Jeremiah, in his mock, has Becton fourth, Wills sixth, Wirfs eighth and Thomas 10th.
In mocking Jackson to Miami at No. 26, Jeremiah said he’s “a very athletic offensive tackle. Jackson is only 20 years old, and he has tremendous upside.”
▪ What about a corner at 18 or 26?
The decision by Stanford’s Paulson Adebo to return to school takes one appealing option off the board. Though UF’s CJ Henderson has been linked to Miami in some mocks, his deficiencies as a tackler and in the run game make me skeptical about his fit with Miami; the Dolphins place tremendous value on tackling with their corners.
Kiper and Jeremiah both have one corner between 10 and 30: Henderson, with Kiper slating him to go 17th and Jeremiah 20th.
▪ Couple quick notes: Though Pro Football Talk noted Dolphins interest in Burrow, the Dolphins believe the Bengals wouldn’t trade that pick and they’re content with Tagovailoa if his medicals check out… Though impending unrestricted free agent John Jenkins did some good things as Miami’s No. 3 defensive tackle, the team - as of Thursday - had not given him any indication if it wants him back.
Here’s my Friday Heat piece on the looming trade deadline.
This story was originally published January 24, 2020 at 2:27 PM.
