The Heat coaching staff preference that may restrict what team could pursue via trade
One reason Hassan Whiteside and Bam Adebayo played just 66 minutes together in their two seasons as Heat teammates is the coaching staff’s belief it wouldn’t work offensively, that Miami needed a stretch big playing alongside Whiteside or Adebayo.
So why are we bringing that up now?
That line of thinking — while certainly understandable and now common throughout the league — seemingly restricts Miami’s options on the trade market as it mulls whether to pursue a defensively-skilled big man before the Feb. 6 trade deadline.
There might be a dozen or more big men on non-playoff teams (or borderline playoff teams) who would be a defensive upgrade for Miami over starting center Meyers Leonard or backup center/power forward Kelly Olynyk.
But that list is much shorter if you eliminate the bigs who have no three-point game to stretch the floor. Those types of players — such as Cleveland’s Tristan Thompson — would be options only if Miami wants to play them primarily in minutes when Adebayo is on the bench, which would be around 14 minutes per game.
And there is something to be said for adding a defensive presence to back up Adebayo, because Miami’s rim resistance — already subpar — is even worse when Adebayo is resting.
Erik Spoelstra believes the Heat’s offensive spacing is best when Adebayo is paired with a big man who can space the floor and hit a three-pointer. In that regard, Leonard is a good fit; his 43.3 three-point percentage is ninth in the league.
The problem is that he offers little rim deterrence and players he’s guarding are shooting 50.3 percent, ranking him in the bottom dozen starting power rotation players in that area. He has 15 blocks in 44 games.
Meanwhile, players guarded by Kelly Olynyk are shooting 49.7 percent, well below average, too. He has 10 blocks in 40 games.
That’s problematic considering several Heat wings are routinely beaten off the dribble, with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Jones Jr. and Justise Winslow (when healthy) the exceptions.
So in examining potentially available bigs, we break them down into bigs with a three-point game and bigs without one. Exploring the options, keeping in mind that Miami’s hard cap prohibits the Heat from taking back more salary than it’s giving up in a trade.
THE THREE-POINT BIGS
▪ San Antonio’s LaMarcus Aldridge: Though his rebounding numbers are down (from 9.2 last season to 7.5 this season), he’s averaging 1.8 blocks and 19.4 points and would be the ideal fit - a player that Pat Riley has always liked and a clear upgrade over Leonard.
But also know that players he’s guarding are shooting 47.1 percent against him. The question is whether Miami would have enough to entice the Spurs, with Winslow injured and the Heat disinclined to trade Tyler Herro or Kendrick Nunn (and with good reason) and lacking a future No. 1 pick to trade. Aldridge is due $26 million this season and $24 million next season in the final year of his contract.
▪ Sacramento’s Dewayne Dedmon: Kings are shopping him; he has been marginalized by the Kings after signing a three-year, $39 million contract and recently was fined by the NBA for publicly disclosing his preference to be traded. At his best, he averaged 10.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and made 83 threes for Atlanta last season.
This season, players he’s defending are shooting only 44.9 percent against him. Due $13.3 million this season and the next two, but only $1 million of his 2021-22 salary is guaranteed, making him an intriguing option for Miami.
The question is whether the Kings would be willing to take Dion Waiters and another small piece needed for cap reasons, or whether Miami would be willing to trade Olynyk or Leonard (and another small piece) for Dedmon. He has played more recently amid Richaun Holmes’ injury and had 13 points and 10 rebounds in 31 minutes against Detroit this week.
▪ Minnesota’s Gorgui Dieng: The seven-footer is averaging 8.0 rebounds, 6.0 rebounds and 1.0 blocks while shooting 36 for 93 on threes and allowing players he’s guarding to shoot 46 percent.
A career 38.7 three-pointer shooter, Dieng is due $16.2 million this season and $17.3 million next season, and that’s a lot for the production. So Leonard or Olynyk and another player would need to be included in a trade involving Dieng.
▪ Phoenix’s Aron Baynes: The New York Times’ Marc Stein says the Suns have not ruled out trading Baynes and his $5.4 million expiring contract.
He’s averaging 11.5 points, 65.8 rebounds and shooting 42 for 126 on threes (33.3 percent). But he averages only 0.6 blocks per game and players he’s guarding are shooting 51.3 percent against him, worse numbers than Leonard and Olynyk are allowing.
▪ Atlanta’s Alex Len: Has a $4.2 million expiring contract and hit 74 threes last season (though he’s just 14 for 56 this season). But I’m not sure this is a great upgrade over what Miami has. Averaging 8.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 0.8 blocks; opponents are shooting 45.8 percent against him.
▪ New Orleans’ Derrick Favors: No indication the Pelicans would move him as they push for a playoff spot. Three-point game exists but isn’t any good (36 for 171 career; 18 for 82 past two seasons). But he’s unquestionably a skilled NBA big, averaging 9.8 points, 10.1 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. Earning $17.6 million in one-year contract.
THE THREE-POINT BIGS WITH ONEROUS CONTRACTS
Cleveland’s Kevin Love, due $31.3 million next season and then $31.3 million and $28.9 million the following two wouldn’t make sense, with Miami looking for max cap space in 2021.
Nor would Memphis center Jonas Valanciunas, who’s due $15 million next season and $14 million in 2021-22, and the Grizzlies - in a playoff chase - aren’t looking to do this anyway.
THE NON-OR-LIMITED THREE-POINT BIGS
▪ Cleveland’s Thompson: Averaging 12.6 points and 10.6 rebounds and 1.0 blocks, and is holding the player he’s guarding to 46.5 percent shooting. But he’s 3 for 17 in his career on threes (oddly, 3 for 8 this season) and this would be tricky from a salary cap standpoint, with Thompson earning $18.5 million in an expiring deal.
▪ Oklahoma City’s Steven Adams: The New York Times says Adams is available. Averaging 11.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and 1.1 blocks, but has no three-point game (0 for 8 in his career). Beyond all that, getting the money to work would be problematic, with Adams due $25.8 million this season and $27.5 million next season.
▪ Golden State’s Willie Cauley-Stein: Averaging 7.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks while holding opponents to 45.3 percent shooting. But just 4 for 18 on threes in his career. Earning just $2.2 million in an expiring deal. But like the Heat, the Warriors are hard-capped — meaning both teams cannot exceed $138.9 million in salary this season. Both teams are up against that number, making a trade very difficult. [UPDATE: Cauley-Stein was traded to Dallas on Friday night.]
▪ Cleveland’s John Henson: Averaging 4.9 rebounds, 3.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks and players he’s guarding are shooting only 42.9 percent. He is not completely without a three-point game, having made 14 of 59 in his career. But not a particular upgrade over Leonard and earning $9.7 million in an expiring contract.
▪ Sacramento’s Holmes: Has played very well and there’s zero indication the Kings would move him. He’s out two to three weeks with a shoulder injury.
▪ Charlotte’s Bismack Biyombo: Has better defensive metrics than Leonard, holding the player he’s guarding to 44.3 percent shooting though he’s averaging just 0.8 blocks per game. But has a $17 million expiring contract and just 0 for 2 career on three pointers.
▪ Golden State’s Kevon Looney: A competent 6-9 center/power forward, but out indefinitely with an abdominal injury and 6 for 28 career on threes. Due $4.8 million next season with a $5.2 million player option in 2021-22.
As for potential wing players — amid a report by The Athletic that Miami pursued Trevor Ariza before he was dealt to Portland — there has been no recent Heat pursuit of Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday as of earlier this week, and no indication that he’s available. Minnesota forward Robert Covington’s $12.9 million salary in 2021-22 makes him unappealing, and the Heat doesn’t have a first-round pick to entice the Knicks to give them Marcus Morris.
This story was originally published January 24, 2020 at 12:11 PM.
