The latest good news and bad news about the Dolphins’ search for a franchise QB
As Miami’s draft position remains in flux, the past few days offered mixed developments on the issue of potential future Dolphins quarterbacks.
Two pieces of positive news this week:
▪ According to an NFL.com report, injured Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s health outlook might not be quite as dubious as some initially portrayed.
▪ The Cincinnati Bengals announced Monday that they’re going back to veteran quarterback Andy Dalton for the remainder of the season — after three subpar performances from rookie Ryan Finley - and that enhances Miami’s chances — still less than 50 percent — to overtake the Bengals for the top pick in the draft, which some expect to be LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. Miami (2-9) likely would win a tiebreaker with Cincinnati (0-11) based on strength of schedule.
The Bengals have home games against the Jets, Cleveland and New England and road games at Miami and Cleveland.
But here’s the more sobering news: That same NFL.com report about Tagovailoa also said that returning to Alabama for his senior season remains a consideration, and he has not decided whether to turn pro. What’s more, several top quarterback prospects not named Tua or Burrow had difficult weekends, eliciting concern among evaluators.
What’s encouraging, from a Dolphins perspective, is a report on the league’s website reporting that Dr. Chip Routt of the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, told Tagovailoa’s family that even though he fractured his hip, “he is more likely to get mauled by a bear than get” avascular necrosis, the condition that ended Bo Jackson’s career. AVN occurs when bone tissue dies due to the lack of blood flow.
That NFL.com story quoted five unnamed NFL high-ranking executives as saying Tagovailoa is still expected to be taken in the first half of the first round.
So that would set up the Dolphins, if satisfied by his medical reports, to select him with their first pick or perhaps trade the Houston and Pittsburgh first-round picks — and potentially another carrot — to move up to take him. Based on that NFL.com report, he might not last until the Steelers’ first-round pick, which now stands 22nd.
On the flip side, any quarterback-needy team’s hope of finding a franchise quarterback in this draft — if it’s not Tagovailoa or potential No. 1 overall pick Burrow of LSU — might have taken a hit in recent weeks if you believe some draft analysts, or if you believe college performance is a strong precursor of pro performance.
Oregon’s Justin Herbert — widely considered among the top three QB prospects in the draft — was uneven in a loss to Arizona State on Saturday, throwing two interceptions.
NFL Network lead draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said during the game on Twitter that Herbert “is a tough evaluation. Very rarely see him sit in pocket and scan the field. Bunch of first-read throws and quick hitters. Some wow throws and awful misses.”
ESPN analyst and former NFL defensive back Ryan Clark tweeted during Saturday’s game: “Justin Herbert is not it!! Seeing it in person... it’s not good. At all.”
Draft analyst Tony Pauline, on profootballnetwork.com, said: “This is what scares me about Justin Herbert: too much inconsistency, a lot of stagnant play and a physically gifted passer who seems unable to carry his offense… and I dare say underachieve at times…
“He’s a signal-caller who cannot carry the offense and often fails in the big spot. There’s no wow factor to his game and no real sense that he’s going to come through in the clutch. Rather, Herbert is a signal-caller that needs all the other pieces working around him. And while that’s not necessarily a bad thing, it’s not the definition of a franchise quarterback.”
Meanwhile, Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm — once considered a mid-first round option — had another underwhelming game — albeit in poor weather — against Texas A&M on Saturday (11 for 23, 163 yards). His completion percentage has dropped four points from a year ago, to 63.4, and he has topped 173 yards passing once in his past five games.
Pauline said he has never regarded Fromm as a top-45 pick and “the past few weeks, Fromm has struggled and looks like a last-day pick” and is better served as a backup.
Washington’s Jacob Eason — seen by some as a mid-to-late first-round possibility — has had consecutive underwhelming games against Oregon State and Colorado, throwing one touchdown and three picks in that period.
Though Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts has put up big numbers (30 touchdowns , 6 interceptions, 71.4 percent completion rate), Saturday against TCU was his worst game statistically of the season (52.4 percent completion rate, 145 yards passing), and ESPN’s Todd McShay said he believes his ceiling is Round 4, because some will believe his numbers are a byproduct of coach Lincoln Riley’s offensive system. And his decision-making has been questionable in recent weeks.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. sees the second round as Hurts’ ceiling.
As for Utah State’s Jordan Love, he has regressed this season, with 14 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions and a 61.4 completion percentage, and he could return for his senior season. He was underwhelming (one TD, four picks) against the best two teams he has faced this season: LSU and Boise State.
