Heat’s need to make a trade increases because of these two reasons. And a Butler update
For much of the past six months, the Heat’s preference to make trades has been threefold: to thin a redundant roster filled with several similarly talented rotation players, to inject an All-Star (and yes, Minnesota’s Jimmy Butler remains a possibility) and to eliminate a potential $9.7 million luxury tax bill.
But if this trade pursuit doesn’t succeed by next spring, it will become more than simply a preference. It will become essentially, well, essential.
This goes beyond the need to inject change into a stagnant roster that has struggled out of the gate at 3-4 — with four losses to possible lottery teams — and is now 89-87 during the past 25 months, including the playoff series loss to Philadelphia in April.
There are growing financial reasons to make a move, too.
The Heat already has $135.2 million committed to 10 players for next season. That’s well above next season’s projected $109 million salary cap and also above the projected $132 million luxury tax threshold.
But the problem goes deeper than that: The $135 million doesn’t include what it would cost to re-sign 2019 unrestricted free agent Wayne Ellington, who’s earning $6.3 million this season, or impending restricted free agent Rodney McGruder, who’s much improved and will command a substantial raise from $1.5 million if he continues to play at his current level.
Nor does that payroll number include an allocation for Miami’s 2019 first-round pick (if it isn’t traded) or tax holds of more than $1 million for any unfilled roster spots up to 13.
McGruder’s salary next season could be shaped by outside offers if the Heat does not give him an extension before then. Though the sample size remains small, he’s averaging 14.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists and shooting 49.3 percent from the field while holding opponents he’s defending to 38.8 percent, compared with the 45.4 those players shoot overall.
For perspective, he ranks 16th among small forwards in scoring, 11th in shooting percentage, and seventh in three-point shooting (17 for 34, 50 percent), among players who have launched at least 20 threes. His defensive field-goal percentage is 11th among starting small forwards.
For additional perspective, consider what other restricted free agent small forwards and shooting guards – most of whom are more established — commanded last summer after posting similar or worse numbers than McGruder’s small sample size this year:
Chicago’s Jabari Parker, after averaging 12.6 points and 4.9 rebounds and shooting 48.2 percent with Milwaukee, got a two-year, $40 million offer that he took from the Bulls after the Bucks withdrew their qualifying offer.
Memphis’ Kyle Anderson (7.9 points, 5.4 rebounds for Spurs last season) got a four-year, $37.2 million offer sheet from the Grizzlies that the Spurs didn’t match.
The Bulls’ Zach LaVine (16.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 38.3 percent shooting last season) got a four-year, $78 million offer sheet from the Kings that Chicago matched.
The Heat’s Justise Winslow just got two years guaranteed at $13 million each — and a $13 team option on the third year — a year before restricted free agency, after averaging 10.9 points and 5.2 rebounds last season.
But Parker, LaVine and Winslow were more known commodities based partly on being drafted in the upper half of the first round, whereas McGruder went undrafted and previously toiled in the G-League. Another prominent restricted free agent guard, Rodney Hood, had to settle for one year and $3.4 million from Cleveland after not receiving any attractive offer sheets elsewhere.
So keeping Ellington and McGruder and not trimming payroll would result in a payroll likely topping $150 million and a tax bill of nearly $30 million. Even keeping only McGruder and not Ellington would result in a tax bill likely topping $15 million, if the remainder of the roster stays intact.
The Heat assuredly would not allow its tax bill to reach either of those levels or anything close to that, meaning trades will eventually come. The only question is when.
Why is any of this important now? Because if the Heat determines by the Feb. 7 trade deadline that McGruder is a worthy starter on a contending team, that might increase the willingness to deal other wing players, beyond Tyler Johnson and Dion Waiters, who already have been available for months.
The Heat would like to trim or eliminate its projected $9.7 million tax bill before tax payments are set on the final day of the regular season. But if Miami cannot, the Heat almost assuredly will need to make significant roster moves in May or June, particularly if it wants to keep McGruder or Ellington, let alone both.
As it stands, the Heat has eight players poised to make at least $10 million next season, a startling number for a team that has been around .500 for more than two years.
Hassan Whiteside (at $27.1 million), Tyler Johnson (at $19.2 million) and Goran Dragic (at $19.2 million) all have player options next summer, but it’s difficult to envision Whiteside or Johnson opting out, and Dragic also seems unlikely to do so.
So Pat Riley again finds himself on the clock, with the Heat’s uninspired start and McGruder’s looming free agency adding even more impetus to make a move.
Butler remains a logical target and the Heat remains willing to engage in discussions even after earlier trade talks fell apart when Minnesota asked for more.
According to a Wednesday tweet from The Athletic’s Shams Charania, “Jimmy Butler is taking next step in six-week-long process aimed at getting the All-Star out of Minnesota by sitting tonight [Wednesday] against Utah, and could lead to extended absence for Butler, Butler started contemplating not playing tonight on Tuesday, and the final decision was made Wednesday morning, sources tell me and Jon Krawcynski. Timberwolves termed it “general soreness and precautionary rest,” but Butler informed Tom Thibodeau of his decision.”
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that teams talking to Minnesota about trades “say the asking price remains steep” and there’s the expectation that Butler will rejoin the team in Oakland on Friday.
This story was originally published October 31, 2018 at 1:33 PM.