Part 2 of a series: What do the Dolphins plan now to achieve ‘sustained winning?’
So, where do the Miami Dolphins go from here? What now?
What does the team’s brain trust do, in Year 3 of their rebuild, to take a big step toward “sustained winning seasons and having an organization that is used to winning,” which is the goal owner Stephen Ross eloquently set for the franchise in January of 2019?
Well, because the Dolphins are an NFL team they will begin with the quarterback.
The Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers proved that a quarterback can help make the difference between being a 7-9 team in 2019 and a Super Bowl champion in 2020.
The Dolphins have their quarterback in second-year player Tua Tagovailoa. He’s currently both the present, as general manager Chris Grier named him the starter for 2021, and the future, as coach Brian Flores has talked about how the team believes in developing players and will do exactly that with Tagovailoa.
But ...
As surely as these words are etched forever in cyberspace, the Dolphins will check in with the Houston Texans at whatever point that team makes it known quarterback Deshaun Watson is available in trade.
Grier, atop the organization, will consider it his duty to, at minimum, have an understanding of what the Watson trade dynamic is — meaning, what the Texans want, trade timetable, etc.
And if you think that phone call, which might eventually turn into a series of phone calls, is somehow insulting to Tagovailoa, too bad. Because in 1989 and 1990 the Dolphins made and accepted phone calls about trading Dan Marino.
That’s the business.
It’s Grier’s job.
One more thing: If, in the currently unlikely event, the Dolphins find themselves completing a trade for Watson, that does not guarantee Tagovailoa will be immediately traded.
The Texans might or might not want Tagovailoa in the exchange. And if they don’t, the Dolphins will not send him elsewhere for anything less than a premium draft pick or picks.
Because having Deshaun Watson as the starter with a salary cap number of $10.5 million and Tagovailoa as the backup with a cap number of $6.9 million is still a bargain compared to current quarterback costs around the league.
Said another way, there is a scenario — albeit one with long odds — in which the Dolphins have both Watson and Tagovailoa on the team in 2021.
And what about 2022 when Watson’s salary cap number shoots to $35 million and remains in the $32 million to $37 million range for four seasons?
Tune into this space in 2022 because the NFL is a one-year-at-a-time league. And so is this column.
Regardless what happens at quarterback for the Dolphins this offseason, everyone within the organization with say understands this team is still incomplete. The roster still has holes.
But for our purposes it’s important to understand holes come in two forms: Holes as in there’s no one at the position. And holes as in the player at any given position is not good enough.
Let’s address the former first.
The Dolphins currently have 57 players under contract for 2021.
They have three restricted free agents and those are receiver Isaiah Ford, quarterback Jake Rudock and offensive tackle Adam Pankey.
They have three exclusive rights free agents and those are cornerbacks Nik Needham and Jamal Perry, and linebacker Calvin Munson.
The Dolphins have 12 players on the cusp of unrestricted free agency, and those include starters Ted Karras, Davon Godchaux, Elandon Roberts and Matt Haack.
The Dolphins have privately said they would like those starters back. But with approximately $28 million to $29 million in salary cap space on an estimated $180 million to $181 million cap, Miami will not be in position to spend exorbitantly — and especially not if Watson is added.
So the Dolphins might be willing to give Karras a salary bump from his $3 million deal of 2020. But if the price climbs considerably for a mostly solid player, the team might look elsewhere.
If there is no Watson trade to absorb cap space, Miami might look to upgrade with center David Andrews, called “the piece that holds it all together” in New England.
If a Watson trade does occur, Miami might need to draft a new starting center because that’s about $2 million cheaper than Karras. That rookie could then compete with 2019 third-round pick Michael Deiter for the job.
Left tackle Julien Davenport, who came in the Laremy Tunsil trade, is unrestricted. And this is where Jesse Davis becomes important. Because Davis proved last season he can play at both right and left tackle as well as at guard.
Davis started four games at left tackle, five at right tackle and six at right guard, including the final four of the season.
So Davenport moves on, Davis remains viable on both sides as the backup tackle for Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt. And right guard Solomon Kindley needs to improve or Davis might take his starting job.
And now about the other kind of hole — the one in which the team has a body but, you know, needs upgrading?
Wide receiver is such a spot. So is running back.
If the Dolphins do not invest some of their early draft picks in a Watson trade, they will almost surely be used to upgrade the playmakers around Tagovailoa.
Although the 2020 draft would have been the time to add a wide receiver because that draft class was so deep, the ‘21 class will still offer high-end receiver talent through at least two rounds.
Consider that LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase and Terrace Marshall, Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman, Florida’s Kadarius Toney and Louisville’s Tutu Atwell could all be selected within the draft’s first two rounds.
And also remember a tight end such as Florida’s Kyle Pitts will be in the draft.
So the Dolphins, with two first- and two second-round picks barring a trade, will have opportunities to add playmakers.
The Dolphins might similarly decide drafting a fine defensive talent, such as Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, upgrades the team. The team may believe it has a need at linebacker with Roberts, recovering from a knee injury and unsigned, not certain to be ready for the start of training camp.
But Grier did a lot of work on the defense a year ago. The Dolphins have approximately $100 million in contract commitments tied up on the defense already.
The club has only about $70 million tied up on the offense. It’s no wonder the defense performed better most of last season.
The club needs to even out the talent if not the salary cap imbalance this offseason.
So think a lot about upgrading the offense in 2021.
Part 1: Where Dolphins 2019 reset brought upgrades, where it has missed
Part 3 tomorrow: What Mando would do
This story was originally published February 10, 2021 at 12:00 AM.
