First of 3-part series: Where Dolphins 2019 reset brought upgrades, where it has missed
Two years ago, the day after Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta, the Miami Dolphins officially signed Brian Flores to be their 13th head coach and launch the franchise in a new direction.
So, happy two-year anniversary!
It’s been an interesting, often bumpy ride filled with some depressing lows and dramatic highs. It’s been educational. It’s been an exercise in rebuilding and renewal and balancing patience with a desire to win now.
And as the grand reset of 2019 begins its third year, the Dolphins find themselves at the proverbial fork in the road. And the choice just ahead offers one path to goals met and championships won, while the other path leads to, well, more of what we’ve endured in the past.
When owner Stephen Ross fired Adam Gase and Mike Tannenbaum and empowered Chris Grier and hired Flores, he promised to stop repeating past mistakes so as to stop getting the same unsatisfactory results.
He promised “decisions that will make the Miami Dolphins continually be a great football team...”
So where is this club as it waits for the start of the 2021 offseason? Let’s gauge a half-a-dozen important categories that determine the rebuild’s health:
1. Results: Coaches hate it because they’re all about process but the truth is the results are the ultimate measure of success or failure. And on that front, let’s agree the Dolphins are not there yet. The Dolphins were 5-11 in the total tear-down year and rose to 10-6 last year. Neither is devastating. Neither is great.
Flores did more than expected with the talent he had his first year but didn’t translate a last-place schedule, 11 new draft picks — including five in the first two rounds — the addition of free agents worth $250 million in new contracts, and an additional available playoff spot afforded by the NFL, into a postseason berth.
This might sound harsh to fans who argue the Dolphins are on the mark, if not well ahead, of their rebuild timetable because that’s optimistically how it feels.
But that optimism doesn’t change the fact the Dolphins are tangibly behind past Miami administrations such as Bill Parcells-Jeff Ireland-Tony Sparano and Jimmy Johnson, who got the team into the playoffs inside of two seasons despite total-to-significant rebuilds of their own.
Year 3 will be the tipping point. If the Dolphins make the playoffs, this rebuild will have a momentum those others did not by the third season. But if the Dolphins fail to make the playoffs for the third consecutive season of this administration, something is wrong.
2. Overall talent: Have the Dolphins improved from where they were when they tore down the teams of 2016-18?
The defense is clearly better. Even though Miami lacks a premier pass rusher, it finished top 10 in sacks. The defense finished sixth in points allowed, even after a meltdown at Buffalo the final game. And the unit was aggressive in leading the league in turnovers. Those are all significant upgrades that lead to victories.
The offense also is scoring at a much better rate than it did from 2016-18. That’s the most important metric because points is what determines wins and losses.
The trouble with the offense is that while some positions have surged in production and seem better off, others have sunk.
The Dolphins have less talent at running back and along the offensive line than they did early in Gase’s tenure. They have more talent at tight end, mostly because players drafted during the Gase era are developing. But the receivers are still a group in need of upgrade and not up to the talent of Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker and others.
It should be noted, by the way, that the offensive line once included Mike Pouncey, Laremy Tunsil, and Brandon Albert and dismissing the contributions of that talent is unwise even as the team awaits the development of promising young linemen Austin Jackson, Solomon Kindley, and Robert Hunt.
3. Salary cap: The Dolphins have done significant and needed work to address this area. Vice president of football administration Brandon Shore helped the club avoid an iceberg aiming for Miami’s cap situation in 2019.
It required the jettisoning of over-priced veterans such as Robert Quinn, Danny Amendola and others, and that hurt for a year. But the Dolphins enjoyed the fruits of that labor last offseason when they began the league year with approximately $80 million to $85 million in salary cap space.
The question remains what now? Because while the Dolphins are projected among the league’s leaders in cap space to start the 2021 league year, the ranking is not a fair estimate of how far Miami can extend itself in free agency.
Miami is estimated to have approximately $28 million to $29 million in effective cap space (based on a $181 million salary cap) when the new league year opens (assuming no trades or significant salary dumps). That will place the Dolphins among the league’s top 10 in cap space.
But some Miami’s AFC competitors — New England, New York, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati — are all expected to have over $60 million of effective cap space.
That means most of the fruits of absorbing dead money for under-performing players and correcting the cap situation were enjoyed last offseason. And there isn’t going to be another huge bite at the free agency apple coming this year.
4. Quarterback: The Dolphins have stated their belief in Tua Tagovailoa. Grier weeks ago named him the starting quarterback for 2021
Miami’s expectation is Tagovailoa will continue to improve and develop, making the No. 5 overall selection invested on him last year pay dividends. (End of narrative approved by Grier and Flores.)
The question is Tagovailoa an upgrade over Ryan Tannehill, which Grier and Flores decided to trade in the spring of 2019? And, more importantly, will he eventually be elite, thus a big upgrade in the future?
Let’s leave the less important answer here: A veteran Ryan Tannehill had a better arm, was more athletic, was bigger and able to go through pre-snap reads faster than Tagovailoa was last year. Some of that is expected. Some of that, such as size and arm strength, isn’t changing.
The more important analysis is what happens this season and the year afterward? Does Tagovailoa’s outstanding and superior accuracy and pocket awareness help him catch and ultimately surpass Tannehill to give the Dolphins the upgrade at quarterback they seek?
There are experts outside the league who believe Tagovailoa will make that leap starting in 2021. There are experts, mostly within the league, who aren’t at all convinced and would be quite pleased to watch Miami spend the next couple of seasons going through the process of waiting for Tagovailoa to mature.
So, bottom line, the Dolphins haven’t yet upgraded at quarterback from the previous administration. But the work is still incomplete and a final judgment is not possible.
5. Coach: Steve Ross showed supreme confidence in Flores in ‘19.
Ross also showed supreme confidence in Gase in 2016 when he said, “Instead of getting a retread that really hasn’t had a great track record as head coach, I was looking for somebody that really could be the next, if you will, Bill Belichick, Bill Parcells, you know, really great head coach, and I think we got one.”
He also showed supreme confidence in Joe Philbin early on, too, so let’s just agree to put the club owner’s early opinions on the shelf.
Two years in and going forward, have the Dolphins upgraded at head coach?
There are tangible areas, such as penalties declining and scoring differential improving, that clearly show improved coaching.
Flores has also so far avoided drama that made the Gase Dolphins seem sometimes disordered. Both coaches have had strong disagreements with players and those players eventually leave and both coaches have had drama within their coaching staff but no Flores assistant, for example, has filmed himself snorting cocaine in his office before a meeting.
So there’s that.
But, again, Gase’s record after two seasons was 16-16. And he took advantage of a last-place schedule from 2015 to get the team in the playoffs in ‘16. Flores’ record after two seasons is 15-17. And he was not able to take advantage of a last-place schedule from 2019 to get his team in the postseason in 2020.
So upgrade? The Dolphins are certain they have it.
The standings and won-loss record so far remain uncertain.
6. Coaching staff: To be perfectly clear, most NFL assistant coaches are good at their jobs. Yes, there are some great ones. And yes, there are some that under-perform and eventually have to go do something else.
But great staffs include assistants that make a difference given the right tools. Mike Westhoff once made a difference coaching Miami’s special teams. Same with Darren Rizzi.
Norv Turner ... great.
Kacy Rodgers ... great.
Dan Quinn ... great.
Kirby Smart, Tony Nathan, others. Great.
Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer did very well in 2020. But we’ve yet to identify unquestionable greatness within the Flores staff — maybe because of the now annual turnover it has undergone the past two years.
Is this staff an overall upgrade from 2016-18? Because that’s the whole point of the reset — to upgrade?
Not yet. Year 3 will help decide.
Wednesday: What’s next?
Thursday: What Mando would do.
This story was originally published February 9, 2021 at 12:00 AM.
