The Justin Herbert-to-Ryan Tannehill comparison exists, but it comes with a big surprise
The comparison that has done more damage and caused more Miami Dolphins fans to fear and maybe even despise the idea of their team selecting Justin Herbert in the 2020 NFL Draft is that the Oregon quarterback is another version of Ryan Tannehill.
This isn’t a forced comparison. A lot of people see it.
NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah sees Herbert as a taller version of Ryan Tannehill when he was coming out of Texas A&M.
I saw it back in November of 2019 after watching a couple of Herbert games...
There are other surprising folks who have publicly made the comparison and that’s cringe-worthy to some people because they view Tannehill’s time in Miami (2012 through 2018) as seven lost seasons that did not fulfill the purpose of drafting him in the first round of the 2012 draft, much less bring a championship to the franchise.
But despite this the Dolphins are open and, indeed, seriously considering drafting Herbert in the first round of the April draft as first reported here and then here and here.
So I decided to ask actual experts if this comparison is fair and how far it goes.
Some of the results are what you might expect and there is a conclusion you might not have expected — because I certainly did not.
I talked to nine current and former NFL coaches and personnel people familiar with Tannehill and Herbert.
All the people questioned have studied Herbert either for their own edification or the benefit of their current teams. All either worked with Tannehill during his time in Miami or against him in their jobs with opposing teams.
This is their comparison
Arm strength: Six of the nine experts said Tannehill and Herbert have comparable arm strength. Three said Herbert has a stronger arm. None said Tannehill has a better arm.
“Ryan had an NFL-caliber arm coming out of A&M and people don’t know this, but it actually got better as he developed,” one expert said. “But if you’re comparing the two coming out of college, Herbert has the stronger arm. You’re going to have a hard time finding someone in this draft that can throw it like Herbert, maybe the Washington kid [Jacob Eason], but he’s got other issues.”
Accuracy: This one was divisive because some experts wanted to split the category and I didn’t. Bottom line: Five said Tannehill has better overall accuracy and four said Herbert has better overall accuracy.
The division is in that everyone — all nine men — said Herbert is the better deep ball passer.
“Ryan has come a long way on his deep passing since his rookie year,” one expert said, “but Herbert is a much better deep-ball thrower right now than Ryan was then or is now.”
The problem for Herbert is his accuracy outside the numbers on deep outs, sideline back shoulder throws or comebacks to the sticks.
“I can’t say Ryan had no problem with that, but he was pretty [expletive] accurate outside the numbers, probably more to the right than to the left side, but still pretty good,” one expert said. “Herbert isn’t close in that regard. I see it as a problem for him but maybe [offensive coordinator] Chan [Gailey] can work with him.”
Pocket awareness: Seven of the nine experts said Herbert is better in the pocket than Tannehill. “I don’t see him stepping up as well as he should, or at all sometimes, but he has a feel for the pocket and moves well enough in there,” one expert said of Herbert.
But instinct and movement is one thing and courage in the pocket is something else.
“Ryan stands in there and delivers the ball with guys in his face or at his feet,” one expert said. “He’s fearless. I think Herbert’s a little sketchy under pressure in the pocket. I see panic there sometimes. Ryan never got happy feet under pressure. I want to see more of that from Herbert.”
Vision and anticipation: Eight experts said Tannehill has better vision and anticipation now than Herbert does. But of those eight, five believe the two players have about the same vision if you’re rolling back the clock to compare 2012 Tannehill to present-day Herbert.
“I don’t like Herbert’s anticipation and I think that’s a function of he’s got a big arm and probably hasn’t had to fit too many throws into tight windows in his league,” one expert said. “Ryan has good enough vision. He makes his reads. But even now he’s not exactly speed reading out there.”
Mobility: Tannehill played wide receiver for a time in college so he could run. But early on, it seems, he was encouraged to stay in the pocket and win from the pocket. And that probably hurt his development early in his career.
Now he can still run and is willing to do so to salvage a play.
Herbert showed in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin he can run. He is fast enough for a quarterback, having run a 4.68 in the NFL Combine.
Only four of the experts judged the mobility of the two quarterbacks and they were split, 2-2.
Production: This isn’t close. Tannehill threw 42 touchdowns and 21 interceptions at Texas A&M. He threw for 5,450 yards. He was not he starting quarterback his entire time at the school. Herbert threw 95 TDs at Oregon with 24 interceptions. He threw for more than 10,000 yards.
Makeup: This one is important.
“I think that’s something everyone talks about,” Dolphins coach Brian Flores said at the Combine. “Does he have that factor? Do guys rally around him? That’s something you see watching the film, but you get to know the player, you get to know people around him, his coaches. Anybody who he has had an effect on.
“You want to get to know them and have those conversations and I think it’s a feel. You may feel like a guy has ‘It.’ Armando may not. As a group, myself and Chris, we spend a lot of time talking about a lot of things. If we feel like a player has that, we feel like it’s something every organization is looking for.
“It’s an important piece. But it’s different. Everybody has a different thought process and opinion on that.”
And what do my experts think? Well, not all have met Herbert in person. Not all have spent a long time with Tannehill.
But all agree Tannehill was never the guy the team rallied around and definitely not when the coaching staff undercut him in 2014 and ‘15. He got better and more confident under Adam Gase, who empowered him.
“My understanding is Justin is not a natural take command type,” one expert said. “So, I don’t know. I do know his teammates like him. But rallied around him? I don’t know that.”
Tannehill and Herbert split the votes in this category.
Overall: And here’s the surprise ...
I asked all nine men who is the better draft prospect — 2012 Ryan Tannehill or 2020 Justin Herbert?
All nine said Justin Herbert.
So Herbert is a lot like Tannehill. Multiple people see this. But according to these experts, Herbert is actually a better version of a young Tannehill.
This story was originally published March 5, 2020 at 12:05 AM.
