First in a series: Dolphins begin work on 2020 free agency (offensive line edition) | Opinion
This is the first of a series of columns on 2020 NFL free agency that will look into the Miami Dolphins’ situation as it will stand next March when the new league year will make available unrestricted veterans for whom Dolphins general manager Chris Grier has promised to be “very aggressive.”
The Miami Dolphins are going to build primarily through the draft the next couple of years, and the top priority in that undertaking is finding an elite franchise quarterback, which is the reason general manager Chris Grier has been on the road the past two weekends.
Grier spent each of the past two Saturdays getting back to his scouting roots by attending college football games and focusing on quarterbacks, per league sources. He used an owner Stephen Ross-provided private jet to get him from those Saturday college games back to Miami for the game against New England on Sept. 15 and to Dallas prior to the Dolphins playing the Cowboys last Sunday.
And, with Ross continuing to provide the resources, Grier intends to see every top college quarterback on the Dolphins’ radar play in person before the season is over.
The Dolphins hope to identify and pick that quarterback in next year’s draft.
But that move cannot be considered or made in a vacuum. The Dolphins must understand for a quarterback — even the best one in the 2020 draft — to play well during his career, he must have help.
And the best help any quarterback can have is great pass protection.
That’s why, multiple sources say, the Dolphins have already begun to look at 2020 free agency prospects in earnest. Yes, six months before free agency begins the work is under way. And that process will continue through this season and into the offseason when coaches will join the evaluation process sometime in January or February.
So if the Dolphins are working on it, I’m working on it.
The most important work the Dolphins might have to do is finding at least two and perhaps three offensive linemen in free agency.
That assignment, by the way, won’t be easy.
Because the Dolphins might be in the market for one and perhaps two tackles. And perhaps a guard. Or perhaps a center.
Said another way, the Dolphins have a plausible need to upgrade at every position on the offensive line, and free agency might be the avenue used to do much of that work.
So let’s address that first:
Why left tackle? The team traded Laremy Tunsil to the Houston Texans. That means the team lacks a legitimate NFL cornerstone left tackle. Jesse Davis, who is a solid player, is currently Miami’s starting left tackle. But Davis could be better suited for a return to right tackle or perhaps even guard.
Why right tackle? The Dolphins got Julien Davenport in the Tunsil trade, and he was the starting right tackle for the season opener. But he didn’t make it to Week 2 after fracturing his leg and hyperextending his knee in practice. Davenport is expected back before this season is over but it would be unwise at this stage to count on him as the 2020 starting right tackle. So the Dolphins might need help there if Davis doesn’t return to the position.
Why guard? The Dolphins drafted Michael Deiter in the third round last April. So he gets an opportunity to compete for the starting left guard spot next year, assuming he improves during the course of this season. But even if that happens, the Dolphins would need a starting right guard who could push Davis into a substitution role if he goes to guard, or a starting right guard plus a swing guard who could be a backup if Davis remains at tackle.
Why center? Daniel Kilgore is Miami’s starter and most experienced offensive lineman, but he will be 33 next year and it makes sense to find the player who is younger and will eventually own the position for the next four or five years.
And now the money question: Why can’t an NFL team that wants to build through the draft simply draft two or three linemen in the next two years?
Because, again, the Dolphins are drafting a quarterback first in 2020. And unless they have the first overall selection, they might have to invest multiple picks toward getting into position to draft that quarterback. It makes sense, then, that picks used to trade up for a quarterback cannot be used to draft offensive linemen.
That’s one reason.
Then there’s the more important reason: It makes sense to add two or three veteran offensive linemen who are plug-and-play so they can immediately help the rookie quarterback’s confidence and performance and development. That is a superior situation than to field a rookie quarterback and ask rookie and untried linemen to protect him — a blind-leading-the-blind situation.
Said another way, a young quarterback has a better shot to succeed behind good, veteran offensive linemen.
That leads us to who?
Teams do not generally allow great players at any position to leave via free agency anymore. Teams simply evaluate the players in their buildings better than in the past.
Even great players who reach the open market generally get there for other reasons — such as durability concerns, character concerns, insurmountable contract issues, or the team is, ahem, tanking.
So... names:
Brandon Scherff: The Dolphins already like him, per a source. Yeah, everyone likes him. He’s the Washington Redskins’ starting right guard. And he is a quality player who has been to two Pro Bowls and will be 28 in December.
He’s an anchor, which makes you wonder why the Redskins wouldn’t want him. Well, they do want him. Multiple reports say he has already been offered (and turned down) a contract worth $13 million per season on an annual average.
That means he might cost $15 million to $16 million per season in free agency. And why might the Redskins not pay that? Scherff has had durability issues the past two seasons.
Joe Thuney: He has started 51 consecutive regular-season games for the New England Patriots. And why is that important? The Dolphins want to fashion themselves the Patriots South. And unlike some of the Patriots players the Patriots South coaching staff brought to Miami last offseason, this guy is actually a good player.
The Patriots don’t typically pay very much for interior offensive linemen. They draft them because their veteran quarterback can live with the break-in period. The Patriots South might not have that luxury.
Trey Hopkins: He has been been an interior swing player, but he is currently Cincinnati’s starting center, which is notable because the Bengals drafted Billy Price in the first round of the 2018 draft to play center. But Hopkins has beaten him out so far and is playing well, according to scouts.
Hopkins is 28 and isn’t going to break the bank in free agency. That makes him attractive because 10 good players found in free agency are perhaps better than one very expensive great player — assuming that great player isn’t a franchise-changer such as Drew Brees.
Notice there are no tackles here? Yeah, because NFL teams don’t typically let really good tackles leave their building.
Anthony Costanzo of the Indianapolis Colts is currently unsigned and he’s a good left tackle, but he’s 31 years old. Bryan Bulaga is also currently unsigned. He’s a good right tackle, but he’s also 31 years old he’s not leaving Green Bay if he can help it. And even if he leaves, he’s going to want to play for a Super Bowl contender, which the Dolphins will not be in 2020.
Finding good tackles in free agency will be difficult.
This story was originally published September 25, 2019 at 12:07 AM.