How the Florida Panthers can still get home-ice advantage in first round of playoffs
The Florida Panthers did their part Thursday to keep their thin hopes for home-ice advantage in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs alive with their 4-1 win over the Detroit Red Wings.
But for it to become reality, they’re going to need some help from their in-state rival and most likely first-round opponent.
Entering Friday, the Panthers are 46-29-4. Their 96 points are one shy of the Tampa Bay Lightning (45-26-7, 97 points) for second place in the Atlantic Division and three behind the Toronto Maple Leafs (48-26-4, 100 points) for the division lead. Florida has three games to play, while Tampa Bay and Toronto each has four games left on its respective schedule.
Barring a nearly perfect run by Florida and a complete collapse by Toronto, winning the division seems unlikely.
Second place, however, is still up for grabs.
Since the Lightning currently owns the tiebreaker over the Panthers by virtue of having more regulation wins (39 for Tampa Bay, 37 for Florida), Florida would need to finish with more points than Tampa Bay to get into second place in the division and start the playoffs at home. A tie in the standings would keep them in third.
For that to happen, in simplest terms, Florida needs to pick up one more point than Tampa Bay (which, again, has a game in hand) down the stretch. That would happen with any of the following scenarios...
1). Florida finishes the season 3-0-0, picking up six points in the process, and Tampa Bay gets no more than four points in its final four games.
2). Florida finishes 2-0-1, picking up five points, and Tampa Bay gets no more than three points in its final four games.
3). Florida finishes 2-1-0 or 1-0-2, picking up four points, and Tampa Bay gets no more than two points in its final four games.
4). Florida finishes 1-1-1, picking up three points, and Tampa Bay gets no more than one points in its final four games.
5). Florida finishes 1-2-0 or 0-1-2, picking up two points, and Tampa Bay loses each of its final four games in regulation.
The Panthers close the season by hosting the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday and New York Rangers on Monday before traveling to play the Lightning on Tuesday.
Tampa Bay hosts Detroit on Friday, Buffalo on Sunday and Florida on Tuesday before playing the Rangers on the road on Thursday.
▪ What a rookie season it has been for forward Mackie Samoskevich. He opened the season on Florida’s fourth line and worked his way up to proving that he can be a legitimate middle-six forward with his lethal shot and his improved physicality and defense.
His go-ahead goal in Florida’s win against Detroit on Thursday was his 15th goal of the season and fifth game-winner. Add on his 16 assists this season and Samoskevich is just the sixth rookie in franchise history to record 15 goals and 15 assists in his first full season. The other five: Anton Lundell (18 goals, 26 assists in 2021-22), Nick Bjugstad (16 goals, 22 assists in 2013-14), Michael Frolik (21 goals, 24 assists in 2008-09), Kristian Huselius (23 goals, 22 assists in 2001-02) and Jesse Belanger (17 goals, 33 assists in 1993-94).
Samoskevich’s 15 goals this season are eighth among all rookies. His five game-winners are tied for second among rookies.
▪ The Panthers’ top three forward lines when the team is at full strength in the playoffs appear to be set.
The top line would be Aleksander Barkov centering Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart.
The second line would be Sam Bennett centering Matthew Tkachuk and Samoskevich.
And the third line would be Lundell centering Eetu Luostarinen and Brad Marchand.
How coach Paul Maurice handles selecting the fourth line will be interesting to watch.
He essentially has seven players — Evan Rodrigues, Jesper Boqvist, Nico Sturm, A.J. Greer, Jonah Gadjovich, Tomas Nosek and Jesse Puljujarvi — for three spots.
Maurice has liked what he has seen from the line of Greer, Nosek and Gadjovich lately and for good reason. Over the past five games, they have held opponents scoreless in their 14:16 on the ice together at five-on-five while holding a 55-28 edge in shot attempts on their opponents and allowing just nine total scoring chances.
However, Sturm is an integral piece of Florida’s penalty kill, and Rodrigues has been part of Florida’s second power-play unit all season.
One would think one of Greer or Gadjovich makes the lineup as the physical tone setter who can provide an energy boost with a hit or fight without compromising star power from the lineup.
Maurice mixed and matched the wingers on his fourth line during the playoff run last season, with Nick Cousins, Steven Lorentz, Kyle Okposo and Ryan Lomberg going in and out depending on matchups and availability. That of course is an option as well.
▪ Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been rounding into form during the second half of the season. In 22 starts since Jan. 21, Bobrovsky is 15-7-0 with a .926 save percentage. He has allowed more than three goals just once in that span.
▪ Another decision Maurice is still trying to finalize for the short term is the makings of his defense pairings until Aaron Ekblad returns from his suspension, which runs through the first two games of the opening round of the playoffs.
With Ekblad suspended and Dmitry Kulikov out the past 11 games with an upper-body injury, Maurice’s defense pairings have been a revolving door.
He hopes the first wave of stability comes when Kulikov returns to the lineup, which could be as early as Saturday when Florida hosts the Sabres.
When Kulikov returns, he will be paired with one of Gustav Forsling or Niko Mikkola. Seth Jones will be paired with whoever isn’t with Kulikov. That leaves the third pairing to likely be Nate Schmidt and Uvis Balinskis, a duo that has played together most of the season.
When Ekblad returns for Game 3 of the playoffs, he’ll slide back to his usual spot with Forsling, Mikkola and Jones will be paired together and Schmidt and Kulikov will most likely occupy the third pairing.
▪ With Florida’s win on Thursday, Maurice now has 915 for his career, surpassing Barry Trotz for the third-most wins in NHL history. He now trails only Joel Quenneville (969) and Scotty Bowman (1,244).
But Maurice, as has been the case his entire stint at Florida, brushed the individual accomplishment to the side when asked about it postgame. Now, he says, isn’t the time and place for it.
“My appreciation for things [is] the whole group here,” Maurice said. “How much I enjoy sitting in the coaches office, with [president of hockey operations] Bill [Zito], as well; the equipment guys, the medical guys and the players. For sure, this has been a wholly and completely unexpected level of joy that I find in my job. ... If I was asked today what the memory is, it’s this group. It’s the fun that we’ve had. They work hard. I’m not pulling teeth here to get these guys to play hard or work hard and that makes life really easy.”
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