Florida Panthers in a good spot entering 4 Nations break. Where things stand
When the Florida Panthers returned from the NHL’s Christmas break, their results didn’t always match how well they played in games.
The Panthers went just 4-5-1 in their first 10 games back despite generally performing at a high level.
“It’s not going to be perfect,” Panthers forward Sam Reinhart said. “It’s a matter of building and finding your game. If you’re expecting to hoist the Stanley Cup every month, you’re going to be disappointed you don’t have that opportunity. It’s a matter of finding your game. We’ve been playing some good hockey; the results haven’t always been there, but I think you look around over the league, and especially our division, that’s just how competitive it is.”
The results have since come.
With their 5-1 win over the Ottawa Senators on Saturday, the Panthers have won eight of their past 11 games and are 34-20-3 overall entering the NHL’s two-week break for the 4 Nations Face-Off.
At 71 points, they have a three-point cushion in the Atlantic Division over the Toronto Maple Leafs (33-20-2, 68 points) and five-point lead over the third-place Tampa Bay Lightning (31-20-4, 66 points).
“We’ve been feeling good about our game,” said forward Matthew Tkachuk, who will serve as an alternate captain for Team USA at 4 Nations. “Even the games that we haven’t won, we’ve felt good about it for the last month or so. It’s been a tough schedule like everybody knows, but everybody’s had that. That’s no excuse. We’re definitely happy with the way we’re going into the break. I think it’s coming at a great time for us.”
While the record has improved significantly over the past three weeks, the Panthers’ underlying metrics have more or less been consistent throughout this entire six-week block when playing at five-on-five.
From Dec. 28 to Jan. 16, when Florida went 5-4-1, the Panthers controlled 57.37 percent of shot attempts (shots on goal, shots wide of the net and blocked shots) — the second-highest rate in the league — and had a 54.40 expected goals for percentage (projected to outscore opponents 22.04-18.47) when the game was played at full strength. They also had a 250-174 edge in scoring chances. However, they were outscored 15-13 in those 10 games at five-on-five.
Now from Jan. 18 through Saturday, when Florida went 8-3-0, the Panthers’ metrics were nearly identical to that previous 10-game stretch — controlling 55.81 percent of shot attempts (fourth in the NHL in that span) and a 56.64 expected goals for percentage (second in the NHL in that span). This time,though, results matched the analytics. Florida outscored opponents 29-14 at five-on-five.
“From January on, we’ve been a pretty consistent looking team,” Panthers coach Paul Maurice said. “Our results weren’t [consistent] in January, but our game was good, and I thought we’ve finished off the right way for the break.”
Top players producing
The Panthers’ recent stretch of wins has correlated with its top players getting out of midseason scoring funks.
Consider:
▪ Tkachuk has eight goals and 16 points over his past games — including four three-point outings — after just one goal and nine points over 16 prior games.
▪ Aleksander Barkov has 14 points (three goals, 11 assists) over his past 10 games after just five points (one goal, four assists) over 12 prior games.
▪ Sam Bennett has five goals and seven points over his past 10 games after going a career-long 20 consecutive games without a goal and just four total points in that span.
“They weren’t scoring in December, and I think there’s a reason for it,” Maurice said. “I didn’t think we were getting a lot. We were winning some games, and then we had a bit of a dry spell.”
Maurice said the return of defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who missed eight of nine games from Jan. 6-22, has also helped get other key.players going.
“A lot of things have just fallen into place for us defensively,” Maurice said, “but also the matchups become right and you start scoring some goals.”
What’s left on the schedule
The Panthers have 25 more games left on the schedule once they return from the 4 Nations break before the Stanley Cup playoffs begin.
That slate includes 14 games at home and 11 on the road, with six of those road games coming over a two-week block in mid-March.
They only have one more game outside of the Eastern Time Zone: Feb. 25 at the Nashville Predators.
There are five more sets of back-to-backs and 14 games against divisional opponents.
But they’ll think about that a little bit down the road.
For now, there’s a two-week break in the schedule.
“It’s been a long year with a tough schedule,” Bennett said. “To go into the break on a high note is definitely good.”
This story was originally published February 9, 2025 at 10:09 AM.
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