How steady has Panthers’ defense pairing of Ekblad and Forsling been? A look at the numbers
For going on three seasons now, the Florida Panthers’ Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad have consistently been one of the NHL’s top defense pairings.
But getting to that consistently high level was a result of evolution by both players.
For Forsling, it was emerging from a player who was a waiver-wire pickup and just trying to crack the lineup as a third-pair defenseman to one of the most reliable blueliners in the league.
For Ekblad, it was morphing his game from one that prioritized his offensive skill set to honing in as a shutdown defender first and letting the offense come at the right time.
The results have been noticeable.
During the past three seasons, Forsling and Ekblad are one of 13 defense pairings who have played more than 2,000 minutes together at 5-on-5. Among those 13 defense pairings, Forsling and Ekblad are among the league’s best in multiple key categories, according to the advanced hockey statistics website Natural Stat Trick. Among those...
▪ A 56.1% Corsi-for rate, meaning the Panthers are controlling 56.1 percent of shot attempts (shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots) with Forsling and Ekblad are on the ice when the game is at full strength. That’s the fourth best mark.
▪ A 7.97 on-ice shot percentage rate against, meaning opponents are scoring on just 7.97% of shots on goal with Forsling and Ekblad are on the ice when the game is at full strength. That’s the second best mark.
The Panthers have also given up 11 fewer goals than projected with Forsling and Ekblad on the ice at 5-on-5 (84 goals allowed, 95.52 expected goals allowed).
Ekblad’s ‘important minutes’
To gauge just how important Ekblad is to the Panthers, look at how often he’s on the ice in key moments.
Ekblad, the Panthers’ all-time leader among defensemen in games played (719), goals (118), assists (251) and points (369), leads the team in average ice time this season (23:25) and has averaged at least 23 minutes of ice time per game in six of the past eight seasons. He’s running Florida’s top power play, is integral on the penalty kill and, along with Forsling, is consistently facing the opponent’s top forwards on a nightly basis.
“He touches all three phases of our games,” Panthers coach Paul Maurice said. “He plays important minutes in all of those.”
And that value is perhaps noticed most during his absences.
Ekblad on Saturday returned from missing seven consecutive games and eight of nine overall due to an upper-body injury — believed to be a hand/wrist injury sustained early in Florida’s game against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Jan. 3. Florida went 3-4-1 in those eight games. Ekblad has missed 63 games over the past three seasons due to an assortment of injuries.
The impact is evident, with the Panthers having to shuffle defense pairings and rely on players who usually handle lesser roles to contribute bigger minutes when Ekblad is out.
And that comes from his evolution to harness the defensive aspect of the game, which is a focal point Maurice preaches of his players. Ekblad has only scored seven goals during the past two seasons after scoring at least 10 goals in eight of his first nine seasons, but his defensive metrics have seen an uptick as that becomes his primary responsibility.
“You’ve seen him play at a pretty high level,” Maurice said. “He came into the league as an offensive guy, and then when you change and grow your game — and I’ll use that word specifically because he’s more impactful now to the defensive side — in the style of hockey that we play and what we’ve been able to accomplish over the past two years, he’s grown into an incredibly important player on a lot of the defensive things that don’t get noticed as much. We do value him greatly for what he’s done.”
Forsling’s ‘very intense game’
The same can be said about Forsling, because the significance of his performance has perhaps been enhanced during the times Ekblad has been out.
When Ekblad has missed time during the past three seasons, Forsling has spent time with various partners on Florida’s top pairing, including Dmitry Kulikov, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Montour.
He has an NHL-leading plus-minus rating of plus-137. Among 139 defensemen who have logged at least 2,500 minutes at 5-on-5 during the past three seasons, he’s ranked 10th in on-ice Corsi percentage (56.62, 10th). Florida has given up 26 fewer goals than projected when Forsling is on the ice at full strength (133 goals allowed compared to 159.22 expected goals allowed).
This season, he’s averaging just shy of 23 minutes per night and has 18 points (seven goals, 11 assists) to go along with his stout defensive effort.
It’s the continuation of Forsling’s steady rise that has taken place since Florida picked him up off waivers ahead of the 2020-21 season.
“He’s been good when everybody’s healthy,” Maurice said, “and then when you have some critical guys go down, you’re gonna add two and three more minutes. That’s a lot when you get him into the 25-minute range per night, because he plays very hard, very intense game of hockey. There’s a weight to that.”
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