Five thoughts after an up-and-down five-game Florida Panthers road trip
The Florida Panthers felt all of the emotions during their season-long five-game road trip.
It started off great with a 5-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets. Then it hit the lowest of lows with back-to-back 4-0 shutout losses, first to the Seattle Kraken and then the Vancouver Canucks. The Panthers rebounded with a needed 5-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers only to end the trip with a 3-1 loss to the Calgary Flames.
In total, the Panthers picked up just four of a possible 10 points and are now 18-11-2 on the season, which puts them third in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs.
“We’ve left some [points] out there,” Florida forward Sam Reinhart said.
Here are five thoughts following the team’s road trip.
1.) We saw both extremes of what this Panthers team can be. When the Panthers are playing at their best, they have shown that they have the potential to be one of the best teams in the NHL. That was evident in the wins against Columbus and Edmonton, when Florida jumped out to early leads (2-1 against Columbus, 3-0 against Edmonton) and then relied on the defense to keep the lead intact.
When the Panthers aren’t playing at their best, they have shown how vulnerable they can be. That was evident in the three losses, in which Florida never led and had to rely on desperation from the offense that fell flat.
2.) More production is needed beyond the top two players. Reinhart is having a breakout season, with his 18 goals tied for fourth in the NHL. Center Aleksander Barkov is producing as well, posting 30 points (11 goals, 19 assists) while playing top-end defense.
But the Panthers need more than just that one-two punch to be successful.
Carter Verhaeghe has done his part with 15 goals, but the rest of Florida’s top forwards expected to contribute in scoring have fallen flat so far.
Matthew Tkachuk has just five goals in 31 games. Sam Bennett has four in 19 games. Anton Lundell, who has missed the past three games with an illness, has only scored twice in 28 games — and one of those was an empty-net goal.
3.) The Panthers need to figure out the power play. Coach Paul Maurice has mentioned multiple times this season that he doesn’t want his team relying on the power play for success. That’s fair, and Florida has done its part by generally out-performing opponents when at full strength and holding its own on the penalty kill.
But the Panthers still need some production when they are playing a man up, especially with the talent they have.
Florida ranks 20th in the NHL with an 18.2-percent success rate on the power play, scoring on 18 of 99 opportunities. They were on about par with that mark during the road trip, going 3 for 16 (18.8 percent) on the power play over the five games.
4.) Finish on scoring chances. The Panthers had 165 total scoring chances, including 66 high-danger chances, over the five-game road trip, according to the advanced hockey statistics website Natural Stat Trick.
They scored just 11 goals, two of which were empty-net goals. Natural Stat Trick projected that the Panthers would have scored 18.56 goals based on their shot attempts and degree of difficulty with scoring chances — just over seven-and-a-half goals more than they actually produced.
This tracks with how Florida’s offense has trended this season. The Panthers lead the NHL with 109.41 expected goals but have scored just 91 goals. The 18.41 differential between expected goals and actual goals is third in the NHL, behind the Washington Capitals (86.39 expected goals, 67 actual goals, 19.39 differential) and Pittsburgh Penguins (104.5 expected goals, 86 actual goals, 18.50 differential).
5.) Now it’s time to spend the rest of December in the Sunshine State. The Panthers play their final five December games in the state of Florida.
Four of those games are at Amerant Bank Arena: Thursday against the St. Louis Blues, Saturday against the Vegas Golden Knights, Dec. 29 against the New York Rangers and Dec. 30 against the Montreal Canadiens. The only game away from home is a Dec. 27 matchup at the Tampa Bay Lightning, the first of three matchups this season Florida will play against its in-state rival.
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