10 thoughts on the Florida Panthers after a 5-4-1 start to the Paul Maurice era
.JPG "Arizona Coyotes center Jack McBain (22) battles with Florida Panthers center Anton Lundell (15) for the puck during the first period of an NHL hockey game in Tempe, Ariz., Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022.")
The Florida Panthers are 10 games into the Paul Maurice era, and the results have been mixed.
The Panthers are 5-4-1, their worst start in terms of points accumulated since starting 2-5-3 in 2018-2019 — Bob Boughner’s final season.
Here are 10 thoughts after the Panthers’ first 10 games.
5-on-5 game has been strong...
When the game is at full strength, the Panthers are outshooting opponents 265-178, a 59.82 shot percentage that is the second-best in the NHL, and outscoring opponents 23-16. The Panthers are more often than not the more aggressive team when all things are equal, which is what they need to do.
But special teams have been anything but special.
The focus of the Florida Panthers’ special-team struggles over the first three weeks of the season has been their inability to score on the power play.
But it’s probably time to start talking about the other end of the special-teams spectrum as well because Florida’s penalty kill has been struggling, too.
Florida enters Wednesday with the sixth-worst penalty-kill rate in the league at 71.8 percent (28 for 39). The Panthers have allowed at least one goal while on the penalty kill in seven consecutive games. Both of their first two goals allowed on Tuesday came when they had a player in the penalty box.
As for the still-struggling power play? The Panthers went 0 for 3 on Tuesday and are now 4 for 44 on the man advantage, a 9.1-percent success rate that is the third-worst in the league.
Analytics say the Panthers should be doing better.
The Panthers are averaging nearly 40 shots per game and nearly 12 shots per game more than their opponent but have been outscored 31-30 so far this season.
According to the advanced statistics website Natural Stat Trick, Florida has an expected goal rate of 41.79, nearly 11 goals more than their actual output. The Panthers’ expected goal rate against? 28.79, about one goal shy of what they have allowed.
Road woes.
Florida has lost four consecutive road games in regulation.
The first of those losses, a 5-3 defeat to the Boston Bruins on Oct. 17, is the most understandable. The Panthers entered that game with just five defensemen and finished with four after Aaron Ekblad left midgame injury. The other three were to the Blackhawks, Flyers and Coyotes.
Top line has found life with Matthew Tkachuk.
They have only been together on the ice for 34:43 so far this season, but the Panthers’ newly formed top line has been dominant since Tkachuk replaced Sam Reinhart on the right wing alongside left wing Carter Verhaeghe and center Aleksander Barkov. When playing together, the group has outscored opponents 5-1 while limiting opponents to just eight scoring chances.
Tkachuk has been Florida’s top offensive threat so far this season with a team-high five goals, eight assists and 13 points. Verhaeghe has logged a pair of multi-goal games. Barkov has seven assists and finally scored his first goal on Saturday against Ottawa.
Florida’s most consistent line? That would be its third.
When the line of Anton Lundell at center with Eetu Luostarinen and Colin White on the wings is on the ice at full strength, Florida has outscored opponents 6-1 while also holding a 43-21 edge in shots on goal, 41-22 advantage in scoring chances and 15-8 lead in high-danger chances.
Aaron Ekblad’s return will be key.
Florida has been without its top defenseman for the past seven games with him on long-term injured reserve due to a groin injury. The group have stepped up collectively in his absence, but Florida will need Ekblad’s steady minutes and production as the season progresses.
The Panthers’ top defenseman skated with the team during its morning skate in Arizona on Tuesday. The earliest he is eligible to return is Nov. 12 against the Edmonton Oilers.
Florida might have another gem in the making in defenseman Josh Mahura.
The Panthers claimed Mahura off waivers just before the start of the season and he has quietly done a solid job through 10 games. The 24-year-old has two goals and an assist while on the ice a little more than 14 minutes per game. He has primarily worked with Radko Gudas on Florida’s second defensive pairing, and the two complement each other well with Gudas’ defensive prowess allowing Mahura to maximize his offensive skills.
Goaltending has been middle of the pack
Both Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight are hovering around a .900 save percentage early in the season. Bobrovsky has a 3.06 goals against average through his first six starts with a 2-3-1 record, while Knight has a 2.53 goals against average over four starts (3-1-0).
According to the advanced statistics website Money Puck, Knight ranks 22nd out of 44 goaltenders who have played at least four games with 0.6 goals saved above expected. Bobrovsky is 28th on that list with a -1.2 goals saved above expected.
Florida needs to take advantage of the rest of this road trip.
The Panthers play three more games on the West Coast before returning to Sunrise for a five-game homestand. Their three opponents — the San Jose Sharks on Thursday, Los Angeles Kings on Saturday and Anaheim Ducks on Sunday — are a combined 12-20-2 so far this season. Picking up at least four of six possible points in these three games would be ideal.
.JPG)