Time to join the bandwagon: First-place Panthers set for ‘biggest game of year’ vs. Canes
The Florida Panthers head into Thursday with nine games left in the regular season, a share of first place in the ultra-competitive Central Division and still a feeling they face a must-win situation to end their current four-game homestand in Sunrise.
The Panthers aren’t shying away from setting the stakes high ahead of their two-game series against the rival Carolina Hurricanes.
“Thursday,” coach Joel Quenneville said, “is going to be our biggest game of the year. ... We’ve got to take care of our end of it in these two games to have any chance.”
A week after playing its biggest series of the year against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida (30-12-5) is ready for an even bigger one against the Hurricanes. The Panthers are locked in a tie with Carolina (30-10-5) atop the Central, but the Hurricanes have played two fewer games than Florida. If they can’t take multiple points away from the series, the Panthers could slip as far as four points behind Carolina, which would put them on pace to finish eight points behind the Hurricanes. A sweep, however, could put Florida four points ahead of the Hurricanes and put the Panthers on pace to win the division.
Florida’s most important series of the year — and probably its most important regular-season series since 2016 — begins Thursday at 7 p.m. at the BB&T Center and wraps up Saturday, and Quenneville is optimistic top defenseman MacKenzie Weegar will play after missing the last two games with an upper-body injury. Forwards Mason Marchment and Noel Acciari, however, will likely miss at least the first game.
“Every point counts,” winger Anthony Duclair said Monday. “Our division is so tight right now that you can’t let any points slip by.”
Trade-deadline acquisitions lift Panthers
The Panthers’ challenge is their ongoing struggles against Carolina. Florida has at least a .500 record against every team this year — the Panthers are 3-2-1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning — except the Hurricanes. After beating Carolina in overtime in the first meeting in February, Florida has dropped five straight to the Stanley Cup hopeful. While the first three games all went to either overtime or a shootout, the results have progressively gotten more and more lopsided, and the Hurricanes twice beat the Panthers by three goals in their most recent series April 6 and 8.
In the five days after the second loss, Florida traded for defenseman Brandon Montour and versatile forward Sam Bennett and signed winger Nikita Gusev. The Panthers know their track record against Carolina isn’t great this season, but they also feel they’re a different team than they were earlier in April.
“We’ve got some new guys and we just keep building our game,” goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky said Monday. “We really improved our team.”
Since Bennett debuted Saturday in Tampa, Florida has not lost. Bennett dished out a pair of assists in his first period against the Tampa Bay Lightning, then scored three goals in a two-game sweep of the Columbus Blue Jackets earlier this week.
Quenneville immediately inserted Bennett as his second-line center in between All-Star left wing Jonathan Huberdeau and Duclair, and the new-look grouping has been the Panthers’ best line with six goals for and no goals against. The second line has generated nine high-danger chances and allowed just one, and their expected goals for percentage — which measures shot quality and volume to determine a predicted goal differential in 5-on-5 action — sits at a team-best 74.1 percent in the last three games.
Before Bennett joined the team, Florida’s most frequently used second line — Huberdeau, center Alex Wennberg and right wing Patric Hornqvist — was minus-5 and giving up more high-danger chances than it generated for a meager 49.6 expected goals for percentage.
Gusev, who has played on the top line since his debut Thursday, has been productive, too, even if it hasn’t yielded significant results yet. His Corsi for — which measures the team’s total chances when he’s on the ice for 5-on-5 — is 62, which leads the Panthers in the last four games.
Florida’s Hurricane problem
With only three weeks left in the regular season, Florida leads the division with 3.21 goals per game and boasts one of the 10 best defenses in the NHL. The Panthers average the second most shots on goal in the league at 34.0 per game, rank third in expected goals at 1.37 per game and have generated the highest percentage of scoring chances in the division.
Against Carolina, most of those numbers dip. Florida has averaged just 2.17 goals per game, 32.8 shots and has given up more shot attempts than created.
The matchup has been the Panthers’ greatest challenge this year. To win their division for the first time since 2016, they’ll have to solve it this week.
“You’ve got probably the quickest teams in the league with as good a defense as you’re going to see,” Quenneville said, “so that’ll be our great test.”
