Has Tagovailoa lost his superpower? Feedback on what’s happening to Dolphins QB
Look beyond the superficiality of the Tua Tagovailoa/Cam Newton dustup this past week — Tagovailoa was sensitive to Newton criticizing him because of his salary — and you will find some substantive, thoughtful analysis about why the Dolphins quarterback has been underwhelming through this 0-3 start.
Excluding the continued drop in explosive plays during the past 13 months (and many people share blame for that), there’s also data to reflect an area where Tagovailoa has continued to regress:
Tagovailoa has lamented that teams “are taking away the middle” of the field. And that issue — combined with several of his own mistakes — have made Tagovailoa one of the league’s worst quarterbacks on intermediate routes entering Week 4.
On passes thrown between 10 and 19 yards, Tagovailoa has seven completions in 20 attempts for 93 yards, including one touchdown and three interceptions. That computes to a dismal 27.7 passer rating.
During Tagovailoa’s breakout season (2022), he had an 111.7 passer rating, with seven touchdowns, four interceptions and 1,516 passing yards on those 10-to-19-yard passes. That passer rating on intermediate passes dropped to 92.4 in 2023 and 83.8 last season. And this season, those 10-to-19-yard passes have been largely taken away.
Of his 89 passing attempts, 65% have been either at or behind the line of scrimmage (19 attempts) or 1 to 9 air yards (39 attempts), per Pro Football Focus.
Tagovailoa is just 12 for 29 on any pass thrown beyond 9 yards, with two touchdowns and three picks. (He has spiked the ball twice to stop the clock.)
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky, who has been as big an advocate for Tagovailoa as anyone in national media, made a sobering assertion this week.
“With Tua, it looks like he’s lost his superpower; Tua’s superpower has always been cut the ball loose before you should cut the ball loose,” said Orlovsky, who works Monday’s Jets-at-Dolphins game with Chris Fowler and Louis Riddick (7:15 p.m., ESPN, CBS-4).
“No one has seen defenses faster. I watched Tua in the last two weeks, and it feels like he’s waiting for guys to get open, see them open and then throw the football rather than what has been his greatest asset, which is throwing the ball before they’re open — moving guys to open those windows and cut the ball loose.”
What has caused this regression?
“I don’t know if it’s the first-week poor performance at Indy,” Orlovsky said. “He’s always a guy who says ‘I trust my eyes and cut it loose.’ It looks like he’s waiting specifically for a player like Tyreek Hill to get open and then throw it. His eyes right now are proactive rather than reactive. I want Tua to get back to playing his style of quarterback.”
While two-time NFL MVP Kurt Warner did not blame Tagovailoa for the late interception against Buffalo, he said the previous week that Tagovailoa was missing open receivers, looking off them too soon or (in at least one case against the Patriots) throwing to the wrong side of the field.
He also said Tagovailoa is “not going to be able to make special plays” like Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, and thus none of his teammates can mess up a play for there to be any reasonable chance of the play succeeding.
ESPN analyst and former NFL safety Ryan Clark said Tagovailoa “looks like he has lost confidence. If anticipation is your thing, you always have to be on top of that. Mike McDaniel did a masterful job of creating easy throws for you [against the Bills].
“When Tua was asked to do the one thing to carry this team to a touchdown to tie the game late, he made the mistake” with the interception against Buffalo.
Much of the problem stems from Tagovailoa’s limitations. As even the most casual Dolphins fans know, he doesn’t have a cannon for an arm and lacks ideal mobility (and probably shouldn’t run much anyway because of his history of concussions).
“The problem is Tua needs too much help,” Clark said. “When you throw the ball 34 times and only amass 146 yards [against Buffalo] because you average 4.3 yards per throw, you ain’t doing nothing.
“We can’t ask you to go above and beyond the X’s and O’s with your legs because you’re fragile. This is not a pile-on-Tua session. This is who we see weekly. It’s going to take Mike McDaniel to call this elaborate game, be creative, get the ball out of his hands, throw the ball behind the line of scrimmage” for this offense to succeed.
Clark, who sometimes says things he regrets, made a cogent point in discussing how the offense is handicapped by Tagovailoa’s limitations.
“McDaniel is still just as creative” as when the offense was flourishing in 2022 and 2023, before defenses adjusted, Clark said.
But with Tagovailoa’s limitations, “it does have to be smoke and mirrors,” Clark added. “Because once the ball is snapped, there is only so much you can do. [McDaniel is] trying to confuse you because he doesn’t have the talent at the [quarterback] position. Tua isn’t all of a sudden going to get a stronger arm.
“When you quarterback has to tell your best receiver — who is still one of the most talented receivers in this league — that sometimes on the deep ball, you might have to stop” that’s problematic.
Tagovailoa entered this past week ranked 19th in passer rating (between the New Orleans’ Spencer Rattler and Dallas’ Dak Prescott), tied for second in the league in interceptions with four (one fewer than Cincinnati backup Jake Browning), 21st in yards passing (575), 29th in ESPN’s QBR formula (ahead of only Russell Wilson, Cam Ward and J.J. McCarthy).
His yards per completion have dropped every year since 2022, from 13.7 (which led the league that season) to 11.9 to 9.9 and now 9.3, which ranks 23rd.
“You have all these weapons and they’re doing more with less,” Newton said.
When the Dolphins are trailing by a touchdown or less with no more than five minutes remaining in the game, Tagovailoa has thrown an interception in three consecutive games under those circumstances.
Injury report
Only three players on the Dolphins’ 53-man roster didn’t fully participate in practice: cornerback Storm Duck (out with ankle), cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. (out with hamstring) and tight end Darren Waller (limited with a hip injury).
McDaniel has said Waller is expected to play Monday but will be on a snap count.
Here’s my Friday piece with lots of nuggets from Dolphins assistant coaches, including when the team does not want Tyreek Hill to wave his hand to come out of the game.
This story was originally published September 26, 2025 at 4:49 PM.
