The regrettable Tagovailoa contract and questions that should perplex Fins fans
Ten questions I can’t stop thinking about in the wake of Thursday’s 31-21 loss at Buffalo, dropping the Dolphins to 0-3 and 6-11 in Tua Tagovailoa’s past 17 starts:
1). Why exactly did the Dolphins give Tagovailoa $167 million guaranteed after a 2023 season in which he went 1-6 against good teams and couldn’t muster more than 22 points in any of those games?
This isn’t a second guess. Before the Dolphins gave him a four-year, $212 million contract in July 2024, we said there was no need to rush into the decision; Miami would have had Tagovailoa under team control through 2026 – on a fifth-year option in 2024 and holding the ability to use the franchise tag on him in 2025 and 2026.
Forget taking the risk on a player with a history of concussions.
The body of work in the year before the extension simply didn’t warrant that kind of money: eight touchdowns, seven interceptions against good teams in 2023, including late-game failures against the Chiefs in Germany, Week 18 vs. Buffalo with the AFC East on the line and the punchless performance in the 26-7 playoff loss in frigid Kansas City.
For the second consecutive week, Tagovailoa threw an interception late, with a chance to be a hero.
“That was a really good play by the defender,” he said of Terrel Bernard. “The linebacker made a great play on that.”
In his career when trailing by one score and five minutes left, he now has a stinky QB rating below 75, with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Overall, this was a typical Tagovailoa performance against a good team - some good, but not enough good. He closed 22 of 34 of 161 yards, 2 TDs, one interception and an 81 passer rating.
The Dolphins are 2-10 in his last 12 starts against good teams, and here were the point totals in those dozen games: 17 against Philadelphia, 20 against Buffalo, 14 vs. Kansas City, 22 vs. Dallas, 19 vs. Baltimore, 17 vs. Buffalo, 7 vs. Kansas City, 27 vs the Bills, 23 vs. the Rams, 17 vs. Green Bay, 12 vs. Houston and 21 on Thursday against Buffalo.
That’s one game in which a Tagovailoa-led offense topped 23 points against a good opponent (a loss last year in Buffalo).
Let’s be clear: The offensive line and his teammates are far from blameless here. But the great quarterbacks usually tie or win games like the past two, not continue to throw interceptions.
The body of work isn’t awful, but it also isn’t nearly good enough for the sixth-highest paid quarterback in football, at $53 million annually.
But the Dolphins made their decision, and the consequences of parting ways would be devastating in the next year. If the Dolphins cut Tagovailoa before June 1, the dead money cap hit would be $99 million before falling to $67 million after June 1.
Trading him before June 1 would be a $45 million hit on the Dolphins’ books; trading him after June 1 would be a $13 million Dolphins cap hit, but would be followed by significant cap hits in future years. (All of these numbers are courtesy of overthecap.com.)
2). Why were the Dolphins even rushing the punter aggressively after they forced a Buffalo punt with the score tied at 21?
Zach Sieler’s regrettable roughing the passer penalty – which wasn’t egregious but a penalty nonetheless - gave the Bills a first down, setting up their game winning touchdown. But why even rush there and take the risk?
“I can’t make stupid errors like that,” Sieler said.
Here was Mike McDaniel’s explanation.
3). Why is this front seven not better?
Bradley Chubb had his third sack of the season, but Tyrel Dodson’s sack was the only other time Miami got to Josh Allen.
What’s more, the Bills ran for 167 yards on 5.8 per carry. For the third consecutive game, the Dolphins couldn’t create a turnover. And they did not produce a single tackle for loss beyond the two sacks.
That’s not good enough for a front seven featuring Sieler, four skilled outside linebackers, Jordyn Brooks and first-rounder Kenneth Grant.
4). Why are some of these pass rushers dropping into coverage? We saw it with Phillips last week and with Sieler on a Bills first-down conversion on Thursday. That’s not a way to maximize your talent.
5). Why did it take three games for the Dolphins to realize Ollie Gordon Jr. needs to play more?
After carrying the ball just three times in the first two games, he ran nine times for 38 yards and converted three short-yardage runs on Thursday.
But he didn’t touch the ball on Miami’s first two second half possessions, both of which went nowhere.
6). Why did the Dolphins invest in a starting safety who missed 31 games in his first four seasons because of five different injuries?
Should Miami be remotely surprised that Ifeatu Melifonwu is already out with a calf injury, after beginning training camp injured?
7). Why did the Dolphins believe Kion Smith, a tackle for most of his life, would be a competent fill-in guard for James Daniels after watching him struggle throughout camp?
Miami finally benched him during the game, and the right side of the offensive line improved significantly after Daniel Brunskill entered. Brunskill’s one big error was allowing pressure on the Tagovailoa interception late, but his overall work was better.
8). Why did Amazon Prime have a sideline report in the fourth quarter about domestic violence allegations against Tyreek Hill?
Either report it early in the game or don’t report it at all.
Trying to explain estranged wife Keeta Vaccaro’s allegations - which Hill’s attorney has denied - during a close game, between plays, seemed foolish.
9). Why does this team keep committing mindless, thoroughly avoidable penalties?
Last Sunday, it was the two delay of games on the final two possessions, with Miami trying to score the go-ahead touchdown.
On Thursday, it was illegal man downfield penalties against Smith and Jonah Savaiinaea, negating first down gains by Malik Washington and Julian Hill.
10). Among other issues perplexing me: Why so much soft zone defense? Josh Allen opened 12 for 12 against Miami’s zone.
Why has Willie Gay Jr. played only 11 defensive snaps in three games (including eight against Buffalo)?
And why can you recognize the poor roster construction and owner Stephen Ross cannot?
At least the Dolphins won’t be playing a team with a winning record when the Jets visit on Sept. 29. Miami has now lost 14 of its last 17 games – including eight in a row — against team’s that entered the game with winning records.
Here’s what McDaniel said after the game.
This story was originally published September 19, 2025 at 12:33 AM.
