Playoff push! Reasons to believe the Miami Dolphins are even better than their record
How’s this for a hot take?
The Dolphins, winners of three of their last four games in convincing fashion, have actually underachieved this year.
They shouldn’t take that as a criticism.
Rather, they should view it as a opportunity.
Fresh off Sunday’s rout of the New York Jets, Brian Flores’ bunch rolls into the bye at 3-3 and, through Sunday’s games, the ninth seed in the AFC.
But based on how they have played through six weeks, there’s reason to believe their best football is in front of them — and that they will be, at the very least, in the hunt through the holidays.
Here’s why:
They have the NFL’s 19th-best record despite having the NFL’s fourth-best point differential (plus-47).
On a long enough timeline, the result catches up with the process, and the Dolphins’ process so far has been excellent.
Using Bill James’ Pythagorean expectation, the Dolphins are playing like an 11-win team, not a .500 ballclub. And with the 10th-easiest remaining schedule in the league, a double-digit win season isn’t out of the question.
“Something we’ve talked about is shifting the overall mind-set of the team from hoping to win to expecting to win,” said Dolphins tight end Durham Smythe. “I think that’s something that, as we continue over these next few weeks, and hopefully we build that confidence that we have these last few weeks, that mind-set will be cemented across the board. I think that’s really what takes teams to the next level.”
The biggest thing that has stopped the Dolphins from realizing their potential six weeks into the season?
Closing out tight games against good teams. They had a realistic chance to win all three of the games they lost, but couldn’t.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been quite good on balance, but he had some big-time red zone issues late against the Seahawks.
The defense ranks third in points allowed, but couldn’t make the big stops it needed against Seattle, Buffalo and New England.
And even for good teams, one injury can throw everything out of whack.
Cornerback Byron Jones’ groin issue — which happened in the first series of Miami’s second game — might be the difference between 5-1 and 3-3. If Jones, and not rookie Noah Igbinoghene, was on the field against the Bills and Seahawks, the pass defense looks completely different.
More reasons for optimism:
▪ The Dolphins rank in the top five in third-down and fourth-down defense and kick coverage.
▪ A case can be made that they have the NFL’s best cornerback (Xavien Howard) and kicker (Jason Sanders) and a top-10 pass rusher (Emmanuel Ogbah) and wide receiver (DeVante Parker).
▪ The Dolphins’ plus-47 point differential is their best through six games in 18 years.
▪ Even after a two-interception outing, Fitzpatrick ranks seventh in QBR.
▪ Miami is one of just four teams yet to lose a fumble.
“There’s never going to be a perfect game,” Smythe said. “When you come in on a Monday, obviously it’s always better when you win the game, but there’s plays left out there to be made. And specifically yesterday, I think there’s a lot of meat left on the bone out there.”
Added linebacker Sam Eguavoen: “I just feel like it’s a culture change. We’ve still got a lot of guys from the team last year, and he brought in some more guys this year. It’s just been a culture change. Flo’s still hard on us, but he took it back on us a little bit. We still work hard. I feel like we’re the hardest-working team in the NFL, but now I feel like we’re working a little bit smarter. Guys are buying in. We don’t dread coming in on Wednesdays like we kind of did last year. We’re just going better as a team.”
This story was originally published October 19, 2020 at 1:07 PM.
