In this 'unpredictable' NFL Draft, the Dolphins will show us who they believe they are

Cut out the clutter.

Blow away the smoke signals.

Turn those tea leaves into an Arnold Palmer, sit back and have a swig.

If you want to know who the Dolphins will draft with the 11th pick Thursday night — when Miami gets its turn in what one NFL source called "one of the most unpredictable drafts we've seen in recent years" — don't overthink it.

Trust the fundamentals — the team's needs, the draft's strengths, who needs what ahead of Miami — and you usually won't go wrong.

Names high on the Dolphins' draft board should be familiar by now: Tremaine Edmunds. Roquan Smith. Baker Mayfield. Minkah Fitzpatrick. Josh Rosen. Vita Vea.

Assuming the Dolphins stay put at 11, the odds are good that one of those six players will be the pick Thursday.

But which one? Luck, of course, plays a role. But it might come down to whose vision of the franchise wins the day.

The Dolphins, who on Thursday will participate in their 53rd draft, are at a crossroads.

Are they the team of 2016 (10-6, playoff participants) or 2017 (6-10, losers of eight of 10 down the stretch)?

Mike Mayock said a few months back that there are probably competing opinions inside the building.

But based on his answer from last week's pre-draft news conference, we can probably guess which way general manager Chris Grier leans:

"We’re very happy with the guys [we have, but] they all need to get better," Grier said. "We need to get better. Six and 10 is not where we want to be. I think at the end of the day, you’re judged on the results. We’re happy [because] we have some good players; but we just need to get back to where we were two years ago."

Grier's opinion matters the most because he is the one who runs the draft room. While Adam Gase and Mike Tannenbaum helped set the draft board, Grier is the decider.

So if Edmunds, a dynamic linebacker from Virginia Tech, and Rosen, the quarterback from UCLA that Mayock called the draft's best pocket passer, are both on the board, who will Grier take at 11?

Only a select few people know that answer, but again, trust the fundamentals.

The Dolphins need a strong-side linebacker. They have a quarterback.

So logic says Edmunds would be the pick.

Same would go for Smith, Georgia's Butkus Award winner, or Fitzpatrick, the do-everything Alabama defensive back.

Yes, the Dolphins would consider taking a quarterback if one of the top four is available at 11, but literally everything we have heard from the organization, both on the record and off, is that Ryan Tannehill is Miami's guy. Gase and Grier have built this entire offseason around that premise.

Given the team's conviction on this matter, we are told that it would stun most everyone, player included, if Tannehill is included in some sort of package to move up in the top 10 to take his replacement.

Given that level of support for a player who has not seen the field since December 2016, why would the Dolphins pass up a premium player at a position of need to select someone to take his job?

Doing so would not only signal that Tannehill's clock in Miami is ticking, but also suggest that the team perhaps is not so confident about its 2018 chances as the team has let on.

That's not to say the Dolphins would not entertain moving up from 42 if Louisville's Lamar Jackson falls, but at this point, there's a greater likelihood of the Dolphins trading back from 11, then up.

"For us, the big thing is just the communication, talking and working what we think is best for the Dolphins," Grier said. "Adam plays a big role. He coaches the team. Mike and I, we have to get players that he wants and that he feels fits best for what he wants to do offensively and defensively."

This story was originally published April 25, 2018 at 1:45 PM with the headline "In this 'unpredictable' NFL Draft, the Dolphins will show us who they believe they are."