Heat hoping to slow Bulls to extend season. Why pace will matter in Wednesday’s play-in game
The Chicago Bulls have been playing catch-up with the Miami Heat for the past 15 years. After all, the Heat has ended the Bulls’ season four times during that span.
The Heat’s Big 3 crushed the Bulls’ championship hopes in the 2011 and 2013 playoffs before a different version of the Heat also eliminated the Bulls in the NBA’s play-in tournament in each of the past two seasons.
But the Heat finds itself playing catch-up with the Bulls this season, struggling to keep up with Chicago’s up-tempo style and losing all three matchups against the Bulls this regular season.
In order to prolong its season, the Eastern Conference’s 10th-place Heat will need to find a way to beat the ninth-place Bulls for the first time this season in a win-or-go-home play-in tournament game on Wednesday at United Center (7:30 p.m., ESPN). As the East’s 10th-place team, the Heat will need to win two consecutive road play-in games — beginning with Wednesday’s contest against the Bulls in Chicago — to qualify for the playoffs as the conference’s No. 8 seed and clinch a first-round matchup against the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers.
“We know what we’re trying to do, and this is an opportunity,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said following Sunday afternoon’s 119-118 home loss at the hands of the Washington Wizards to end the regular season with an underwhelming 37-45 record. “We know that it’s not going to be easy. But it’s an opportunity to get into the party, get into the dance. I think the format, once you can wrap your mind around it, it’s fun.”
Playing the Bulls has been anything but fun for the Heat this season, though.
The Heat blew a 12-point fourth-quarter lead in Chicago in the teams’ first matchup of the season, falling to the Bulls 133-124 on Feb. 4.
The Heat then wasted an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in the Miami in the teams’ second meeting of the season, losing to the Bulls 114-109 on March 8.
The Heat and Bulls faced off for the third and final time this regular season just last week, as Miami fell behind by as many as 14 points on its way to a 119-111 loss to Chicago at United Center last Wednesday.
“The game Wednesday [will] be the last game of the year if we don’t win, so we have to throw everything we’ve got into that game,’’ Bulls coach Billy Donovan said, downplaying his team’s success against the Heat this regular season. ‘‘I’m a big believer each game is its own individual. What’s in the past is in the past. You can take things from games, but this is totally fresh and new, everything is new.”
But there has been one common thread among all three Heat-Bulls matchups this regular season: The games were played at Chicago’s fast pace.
In a battle of contrasting styles, that’s important. The Heat ended this regular season with the NBA’s fourth-slowest pace at 97.1 possessions per 48 minutes and the Bulls closed this regular season with the league’s second-fastest pace at 103.6 possessions per 48 minutes.
The three regular-season games between the Heat and Bulls were played at a pace of 103.5 possessions per 48 minutes, with Chicago outscoring Miami by a total margin of 55-36 in fast-break points over those three meetings. That’s the fastest pace that any regular-season series involving the Heat was played at this season.
“You can’t really prepare for it,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said of the Bulls’ speedy approach after allowing Chicago to score 24 fast-break points last Wednesday. “We talked about it all morning and you don’t really feel it until you get into the game and how fast they get that ball out after makes and misses, just getting the ball up the floor.”
Herro’s Heat co-star Bam Adebayo doesn’t think the Heat needs to match the Bulls’ speed. Instead, Adebayo believes the Heat needs to set the terms and make sure the game is played at Miami’s usual methodical pace.
“Taking away transition points,” Adebayo said of the key to defeating the Bulls. “That’s the biggest thing. From that, make it a half-court game and then we play in the mud.”
The numbers back up that theory, as the Heat went just 3-7 this regular season in games played at a pace faster than 102 possessions per 48 minutes. Those three wins came against teams at the bottom of the standings (two against the Wizards and one against the New Orleans Pelicans) and three of the seven losses came to the Bulls.
Meanwhile, the Bulls posted a subpar 5-8 record this regular season in games played at a pace of 100 possessions per 48 minutes or slower.
So, how can the Heat slow things down?
“There are a lot of different layers to it,” Spoelstra said. “Next-play speed is a big part of it. But your offense also is a big part of it. Keeping them honest. If they’re just rebounding and playing off of misses, it’s going to be a tough one. But if we’re generating the type of offense that we want, where we’re attacking and we’re getting them on their heels and ideally getting to the free-throw line a fair amount, then it’s a little bit more on our terms.”
It would also help if the Heat could find a way to slow Bulls guard Josh Giddey, who averaged a triple-double stat line of 26 points, 10.3 rebounds, 10 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks per game against Miami this regular season. Giddey, who is currently dealing with a wrist injury, also shot an efficient 58.3 percent from the field and 8 of 15 (53.3 percent) from three-point range against the Heat.
Even with Ayo Dosunmu sidelined for the rest of the season after undergoing left shoulder surgery in March, the Bulls also still have plenty of offensive weapons around Giddey. Chicago’s Coby White, Matas Buzelis, Kevin Huerter and Nikola Vucevic are among those who have hurt the Heat at different times this season.
“They got a lot of good guards who can make the right play,” Heat guard Davion Mitchell said. “They’re not selfish at all. When a team is not selfish, they’re going to be hard to beat — I don’t care how good the talent is.”
The loser of Wednesday’s Heat-Bulls play-in game is eliminated from playoff contention. The winner advances to take on the loser of Tuesday’s play-in game between the Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks on Friday in either Orlando or Atlanta at a time still to be determined, with the victor of Friday’s contest earning the conference’s eighth playoff seed and the loser sent into the offseason.
The Heat is hoping to become the first 10th-place team in either conference to make the playoffs from the play-in tournament since this current play-in format was first instituted for the 2020-21 season.
“We embrace this challenge,” Heat second-year forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. said.
With a two-day break between Sunday’s regular-season finale in Miami and Wednesday’s play-in game in Chicago, the Heat will spend that time preparing for what it hopes becomes a long trip that extends to either Orlando or Atlanta for a second play-in game on Friday and then to Cleveland for a first-round playoff series that would begin Sunday. The Heat returns to the practice court Tuesday morning before flying to Chicago that afternoon.
“It will be valuable,” Spoelstra said of the Heat’s first multiday break between games since the February All-Star break. “I’m sure both teams feel that way. You always want to be mindful that you don’t over-clutter the mind. We’re at our best when we have great clarity. We know what our game is at this point and we know what their game is.”
