Where Heat’s two potential first-round picks stand and what’s at stake this weekend
Though the Heat is nearly locked into the 10th seed with very slim odds of moving up, the final three days of the regular season will offer a measure of clarity in one area for Miami:
Draft order, not only for its own first-round pick (which Miami keeps only if it misses the playoffs) but also for the first-round pick due from Golden State.
The Heat enters Friday’s game in New Orleans with a chance to be seeded anywhere from ninth to 13th in the mid-May NBA draft lottery if it misses the playoffs. The worse record Miami has, the better its chances of securing a top-four pick in a draft that’s considered deep in talent.
The Heat enters Friday night with the NBA’s 11th-worst record, which would give Miami a 2% chance of landing the top pick (assuredly Duke’s Cooper Flagg) and a 9.4% chance of snagging a top-four pick during the NBA lottery.
But Miami enters the final weekend with one fewer win than both Phoenix (whose first-round pick will go to Houston) and Portland. Should the Heat move to the ninth-worst record, Miami would have a 3.8% chance of landing the top pick and a 17.3% chance of securing a top-four pick.
But if the Heat beats the Pelicans and Wizards, and Chicago and Dallas lose twice, Miami’s odds of getting Flagg could drop to 1% and its chances for a top four pick drop to 4.8%.
ESPN’s mock draft this week has Rutgers wings Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey going second and third, after Flagg, and Baylor shooting guard VJ Edgecombe going fourth overall.
So what happens if multiple lottery teams finish with the same record?
In that case, their lottery ball combinations are merged and then divided equally. For example, if two teams are tied, they would each get half of the combined combinations.
The Heat would keep its first-round pick only if it loses in next week’s play-in round, and then Oklahoma City would get the Heat’s first-round pick in 2026, regardless of where it falls in the draft.
If Miami advances out of the play-in and makes the playoffs, Oklahoma City would get the Heat’s first round pick in June and the Heat would keep its first-round pick in 2026.
As for Golden State’s first-round pick, which was acquired in the Jimmy Butler trade, Miami would get it this year as long as it falls between 11 and 30. The only chance of the Warriors keeping their pick would be if they end up in the play-in, lose in the play-in and then get lucky by snagging a top-three pick in the lottery.
The Warriors enter Friday in sixth in the West, but with the same 47-33 record as teams currently holding two play-in spots: No. 7 Memphis and No. 8 Minnesota. Golden State would avoid the play-in if it wins at Portland and home against the Clippers.
In all likelihood, Miami will get the Warriors’ pick and it could fall anywhere from 18th to 25th. The Warriors entered Friday in a three-way tie for the 19th-, 20th- and 21st-worst records. Eight teams have between 47 and 49 wins, which explains why there is such a wide variance in where Golden State’s pick could end up.
When teams finish with the same regular-season record, their draft order is determined by a random drawing, usually about a week after the season.
Unlike the NFL, when Super Bowl participants get the last two picks of the first round, playoff performance does not impact draft order in the NBA.
As for the situation with the play-in, the Heat is nearly locked into the 10th seed, which would require Miami to win a road game on Wednesday to advance to another road play-in game next Friday.
The only way the Heat would avoid the 10th seed is winning out (against New Orleans and Washington) and either Chicago losing to both Washington and Philadelphia or Atlanta losing at Philadelphia and then losing against an Orlando team that is locked into the seventh seed.
This story was originally published April 11, 2025 at 10:54 AM.
