Numbers and history indicate otherwise, but Heat considers itself ‘dangerous’ postseason team
While the season-long point differential number, advanced metrics, record and standings may not back it up, the Miami Heat enters the postseason with a sense of confidence.
“We’re a dangerous team,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said just a few days ago. “We’re finding our health, we’re getting a confidence about how we’re playing.”
To take that confidence into the playoffs, the Heat needs to win a game in the play-in tournament after closing the regular season in seventh place in the Eastern Conference at 44-38 just one year after entering the playoffs as the East’s top seed. The Heat hosts the eighth-place Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. in a play-in game aired exclusively on TNT for the right to the East’s seventh playoff seed.
If the Heat defeats the Hawks, it will open the playoffs with a first-round series against the second-seeded Boston Celtics. Game 1 would be in Boston on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on ESPN.
If the Heat loses to the Hawks, it will get one more opportunity to qualify for the playoffs on Friday with a home game against the winner of Wednesday’s No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in matchup between the Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls. The winner of this third play-in game Friday clinches the East’s No. 8 playoff seed and begins the playoffs with a first-round series against the top-seeded Bucks in Milwaukee on Sunday at a time still to be determined.
“This is a new experience, I think this is a really good game to compete and go after it,” Spoelstra said ahead of Tuesday’s play-in game against the Hawks. “We’re looking forward to it. Our guys love competition and this has high stakes to it and that’s ultimately where you find out about yourself is when there’s stakes to it, when there’s consequences to it. I think that’s always driven the best out of our team.”
The Heat believes some of its best basketball during a frustratingly inconsistent regular season came in the final days of the schedule, earning three consecutive wins before resting most of its regulars in the final two games. The Heat earned an impressive 28-point road victory over the East’s third-seeded Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday during that winning streak.
“I of all people know what it means to get hot at the right time because our first championship team got hot at the right time and we rode that wave all the way through,” Heat veteran Udonis Haslem said, referring to the organization’s first NBA championship in 2006. “So I’m getting ahead of myself, but I understand how it is in the playoffs when a team can get hot at the right time. I feel like we’re a very dangerous team right now, but the games have to be played.”
The difference is that 2005-06 Heat team won 22 of its final 32 regular-season games on its way to entering the playoffs as the East’s No. 2 seed and winning the title. This season’s Heat team never went on that type of run, posting a 12-11 record after the All-Star break and will be the East’s No. 7 or No. 8 seed if it advances past the play-in tournament.
There has only been one NBA team seeded fifth or lower that has won a championship since 1984: the sixth-seeded Houston Rockets in 1995.
Besides the recent three-game winning streak, what’s the source of optimism for Heat players and coaches entering the postseason?
“The guys that we have,” Heat forward Caleb Martin said. “You got Spo, the head of the snake with our staff. And you got Jimmy [Butler], the head of the snake on the floor. Those two guys are going to make everything go. At the end of the day by the time our season is over or whatever it is, they’re going to do everything in their power to put us in position to win a championship.”
Spoelstra has been voted as the league’s best head coach for three straight years in the NBA’s preseason survey of general managers, and Butler has established himself as one of the NBA’s top playoff performers.
Butler is also coming off arguably the best regular season of his NBA career, averaging 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game while shooting a career-best 53.9 percent from the field. He has been among the best players in the league during the past two months, averaging 25.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game while shooting an ultra-efficient 61.6 percent from the field in 20 games since the All-Star break.
“We got guys following a guy like Jimmy and we got our staff following a guy like Spo, I always believe we’re going to be in a good spot,” Martin said.
But the numbers say the Heat is actually the worst team still remaining. Miami enters with the worst season-long net rating (outscored by 0.5 points per 100 possessions) among the 20 NBA teams that qualified for the postseason.
The Heat was outscored by a total of 26 points in the regular season.
Unsurprisingly, no NBA team has won the championship after closing the regular season with a negative point differential. In fact, the last 16 teams that made the playoffs with a negative point differential were eliminated in the first round, as the 2013-14 Brooklyn Nets were the last team to get past the first round with a negative point differential before being eliminated by the Heat in the second round.
Up-and-down play throughout the year has the Heat at this point. Miami closed the regular season with the NBA’s 25th-ranked offensive rating and ninth-ranked defensive rating.
“I think all the things we went through throughout this year — good, bad, indifferent, pretty, ugly, all those things — have brought us to this point,” Haslem said. “In a weird way, we’ve gained confidence through all of those things because we still ended up making the postseason. We just didn’t play the way we’re capable of playing. But with that being said, the playoffs is a new season, it’s a new opportunity and I think we’re excited about that.”
The Heat believes it found a formula that works late in the regular season. Miami recorded the NBA’s top offensive rating and 13th-best defensive rating during its three-game winning streak in the final week of the schedule.
It’s a very small sample size, but the Heat is hoping that three-game stretch proves to be a better representation of what it can be this postseason than the 70-plus games that preceded it.
“I just feel like we’re playing the right way, playing together,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said. “Obviously, it would have been ideal not to be in the play-in, but we are what we are. We feel like we still have a great opportunity and we can play with anybody.”
▪ The Heat only ruled out rookie forward Nikola Jovic (back spasms) for Tuesday’s play-in game against the Hawks.
Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable with left knee soreness, which has been the norm since he returned from injury last month. Max Strus is probable to play with a finger hyperextension.
The Hawks are expected to have their full rotation available against the Heat.
This story was originally published April 10, 2023 at 2:00 PM.
