How Trae Young shot against each key Heat player, and examining what Miami has done to him
If the law of averages applies to NBA play-in games, the Heat must hope that doesn’t result in a change of fortunes for Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young.
The two-time All Star, who finished 10th in the league in scoring this season at 26.2 points per game, has played less efficiently and effectively against the Heat than any other Eastern Conference team.
The Heat hopes that pattern continues when the teams meet in a TNT-televised play-in game at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday at the Kaseya Center in downtown Miami. The winner advances to play Boston in the playoffs.
The Heat has throttled Young for the past calendar year; he has shot 30.3 percent, with 49 turnovers, in his past eight games against the Heat.
“He’s going to be aggressive, but we will be too,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said. “He’s a good player and he’s going to do his tricks and his ways to draw fouls. I think if we’re disciplined, we’ll be all right.”
The Heat held Young to 8 points — 18 below his average — on 2-of-13 shooting — in their last meeting on March 4. He has scored in single digits just 18 times in 353 games.
In four games against the Heat this season, he averaged 19.8 points (lowest against any Eastern Conference team) while shooting just 35.6 percent overall and 20.8 percent on threes (5 for 24). Though he had 39 assists against the Heat this season, he also had 21 turnovers.
“He can win games, will games, he can make big shots and get their team going,” Heat forward Caleb Martin said. “So we try to have everybody’s number every time we play them, but we just do our best to try to make it tough on him.”
The Heat made it miserable on Young in Miami’s 4-1 first-round playoff win against the Hawks last April. Young averaged just 15.4 points on 32 percent shooting, and 6.2 turnovers per game.
Overall, in 17 career games against Miami, Young has averaged fewer points against the Heat (21.4) than against any other Eastern Conference team, while shooting 40.2 percent from the field and 32.8 percent on threes.
So what is the key to the Heat defending him?
“Making him see doubles, trying to make him take difficult shots,” Bam Adebayo said after the teams played March 4. “Gabe [Vincent], Jimmy, Caleb, [Victor Oladipo] have done a tremendous job making his life difficult when he tries to get in his bag.”
This season, Vincent, Martin and Adebayo did the best job forcing Young to miss shots, according to the NBA’s tracking metrics.
Young shot 4 for 12, including 1 for 6 on threes, with nine assists and three turnovers when defended by Vincent.
He shot 5 for 16, including 2 for 7 on threes, with 11 assists and nine turnovers, against Martin.
Young was 2 for 8, with eight assists and one turnover, when Adebayo defended him.
“I just think that’s just us doing our job and coming in and paying attention to detail,” Martin said. “I think that’s a sign of respect for him and how locked in that we come in when we… play someone like him.”
Vincent figures to open defending Young.
Against the Heat’s other three starters (besides Adebayo and Vincent), Young this season shot 4 for 4 in just 2:17 when defended by Jimmy Butler; 2 for 5 against Herro and 4 for 9 against Max Strus.
“The Trae Young narratives. I am aware that’s been out there,” coach Erik Spoelstra said. “You’re going to get his best, as you should expect.”
THIS AND THAT
The winner of Tuesday’s Heat-Hawks game will open the playoffs at 3:30 p.m. Saturday at Boston, on ESPN.
If the Heat loses on Tuesday, Miami on Friday would play the winner of Wednesday night’s Chicago-Toronto play-in game, with the winner of that game playing Game 1 of the first round at Milwaukee on Sunday.
▪ If the Heat wins on Tuesday, it would be Miami’s 18th consecutive victory against a Southeast Division opponent.
▪ Butler finished 22nd in the NBA in scoring at 22.9 and second in steals at 1.8.
▪ Adebayo closed 35th in scoring at 20.6 and 15th in rebounding at 9.3.
▪ Herro was 40th in scoring at 20.3 and first in free throw shooting at 93.4. This was the first time in franchise history that three Heat players averaged at least 20 points per game in the same season.
▪ The Heat’s new starting lineup — Butler, Adebayo, Herro, Vincent and Strus — ended up playing just 76 minutes together but outscored teams by 20 points in those minutes while shooting 55.3 percent from the field and 38.6 percent on threes.
▪ The Heat finished 25th in offensive rating, scoring 112.3 points per 100 possessions. But since the All Star break, Miami was 16th at 115.6.
▪ Miami finished ninth in defensive rating, allowing 112.3 points per 100 possessions.
But since the All-Star break, Miami was 22nd at 117.1.
Meanwhile, Atlanta was fourth in offensive rating since the All Star break, scoring 120.1 points per 100 possessions.
“Since the coaching change [from Nate McMillan to Quin Snyder in late February], their offense has taken a big-time jump,” Spoelstra said. “It’s not like you can expect us to come in here with an average game. You have teams that are not that far apart in the overall standings. So it should be highly competitive and I want that to bring out the best in us.”
This story was originally published April 10, 2023 at 9:11 AM.
