What does history say about what Heat will do with the No. 27 pick in Thursday’s NBA Draft?
This is the end of a three-part series exploring how the Miami Heat could approach Thursday’s NBA Draft. The Heat currently holds the No. 27 pick in the first round, but does not have a second-round pick.
If history is any indication, Thursday’s draft night could include a Miami Heat trade.
The Heat has entered the draft with a first-round pick slotted 20th overall or later just four times since 2007 and it has dealt that selection on three of those draft nights.
▪ The Heat selected Jason Smith with the 20th overall pick in 2007 but immediately dealt Smith as part of a package to acquire Daequan Cook (drafted with the 21st overall pick that year), a 2009 second-round pick and cash from the Philadelphia 76ers.
▪ The Heat drafted Arnett Moultrie with the 27th overall pick in 2012 but quickly moved him in a trade that brought back Justin Hamilton (drafted with the 45th overall pick in the second round that year) and a future conditional first-round pick from the 76ers.
▪ The Heat picked P.J. Hairston with the 26th overall pick in 2014 but promptly traded him as part of a package to acquire Shabazz Napier (drafted with the 24th overall pick that year) from the Charlotte Hornets.
▪ The Heat took Precious Achiuwa with the 20th overall pick in 2020 and kept him. Achiuwa spent his rookie season with Miami before he was traded to the Toronto Raptors last offseason as part of the Kyle Lowry deal.
Thursday’s NBA Draft (8 p.m., ESPN) held at Barclays Center in Brooklyn will mark the fifth during this stretch the Heat has entered with a pick in the 20s. Miami’s lone pick in this year’s two-round draft is in the first round at No. 27 overall, which is expected to come around 10:30 p.m. and is eligible to be dealt.
[Part 1: What will Heat do with No. 27 pick? The case for making the selection]
[Part 2: What are Heat’s options with No. 27 pick? The case for trading the selection]
Recent history in similar situations says the Heat will likely make a pick in Thursday’s draft, but it just might not be at No. 27. Among the various possibilities if Miami again chooses to deal its pick in the 20s, the Heat could use the selection to trade for multiple picks later in the draft or as part of a package to move up in the draft.
“Well, where we’re drafting is late at 27,” Heat president Pat Riley said earlier this month. “So there’s a lot of good players that have been drafted down there. But it’s sort of a crap shoot when you’re looking for talent and it isn’t ready made at the top of the lottery and sometimes the top of the lottery you can make a mistake there, too.
“As far as our draft choices, they’re valuable to us. ... So we’re going to use them unless something presents itself that causes you to say, ‘Hey, I think I’ll do this,’ that will transcend drafting somebody. I would always consider that.”
While the 27th pick doesn’t usually produce All-Star-caliber players, it has in recent years. The list of those currently in the NBA who were drafted at No. 27 includes Boston Celtics center Robert Williams, Raptors forward Pascal Siakam and Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert.
Among the prospects projected to be drafted in the Heat’s range who could be first-round options for Miami are Kentucky guard Tyty Washington Jr., Tennessee guard Kennedy Chandler, Arizona wing Dalen Terry, Nebraska wing Bryce McGowens, G League Ignite wings MarJon Beauchamp and Jaden Hardy, Duke wings Trevor Keels and Wendell Moore Jr., Santa Clara wing Jalen Williams, Michigan wing Caleb Houstan, Notre Dame wing Blake Wesley, Kansas wing Christian Braun, Ohio State forward E.J. Liddell, Wake Forest forward Jake LaRavia, Baylor forward Kendall Brown, Milwaukee forward Patrick Baldwin Jr. and international forward Nikola Jovic.
ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas pointed to Wesley, Terry and Williams as intriguing prospects in the Heat’s range, but noted that he doesn’t “necessarily see” them being immediate contributors.
“But when you’re drafting there,” Bilas said of the 27th pick during a conference call with reporters. “I don’t know you’re necessarily looking for right away. You’re looking for the best value.”
ESPN NBA Draft analyst Jonathan Givony agrees with Bilas and believes the Heat will draft the best available player rather than select based on need if it keeps the 27th pick.
“Knowing their group, I see [Heat assistant general manager] Adam Simon everywhere and [Heat director of player personnel] Eric Amsler and [Heat director of college and pro scouting] Keith Askins,” Givony said to the Miami Herald. “They are very visible at every event. They really scout very hard. I would be surprised if they box themselves into like a position or a need. Because it’s pretty rare that the 27th pick is ready to help a team, especially a team that’s competing for a championship like Miami, in Year 1. Miami, they’re not short-term thinkers. So I think they’re going to come into it with an open mind and say, ‘Who’s the best prospect that we can get?’”
The Heat does not currently hold a second-round pick in this year’s draft because it was forced to forfeit the selection as a result of the NBA’s investigation into last offseason’s sign-and-trade acquisition of Lowry. Along with trading for a second-round selection, Miami could also buy its way into the second-round if it chooses to with the help of $5.8 million that it has available to purchase such a pick — money that doesn’t count against the salary cap.
But an argument can be made against trading for or purchasing a second-round pick because of the success the Heat has had in developing undrafted talent. The list of undrafted players Miami has signed and developed in recent seasons includes Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, Omer Yurtseven, Caleb Martin and Kendrick Nunn, with Rodney McGruder, Tyler Johnson and Udonis Haslem among the Heat’s past undrafted success stories.
There will be two more undrafted players this year than usual, with Thursday’s draft featuring 58 picks instead of 60 because the Milwaukee Bucks and Heat forfeited second-round selections due to what the NBA ruled as free agency violations in recent offseasons.
“We feel good where we’re picking at 27,” Simon said. “I feel like the options will be good. Then at the end of the day, every team has to make a decision versus a player that’s a little bit more advanced and a little bit more ready versus a player that’s younger in their career and that needs development and may be a couple years away. There’s no right or wrong answer.
“But I think if you’re looking at this draft, there are players that are more ready and there are players that need a little bit more seasoning. But I think it’s a good draft overall.”
