What will Heat do with No. 27 pick in Thursday’s NBA Draft? The case for making the selection
This is the start of a three-part series exploring how the Miami Heat could approach Thursday’s NBA Draft. The Heat currently holds the No. 27 pick in the first round, but does not have a second-round pick.
The Heat will make its first big decision of the offseason in the coming days.
What will the Heat do with the No. 27 pick in Thursday’s NBA Draft held at Barclays Center? Miami is eligible to trade the selection, but ESPN analyst and former Nets executive Bobby Marks believes the Heat should try to keep the pick for a few different reasons.
“I think it’s a 40-deep player draft. I think there’s value from where they’re picking,” Marks said during an interview with the Miami Herald. “It’s a draft that’s pretty rich with wings and fours. Like 10 out of the top 30 are stretch fours. It’s not a point guard draft. So you’re looking at wings and fours, which I would think is a priority for Miami.”
Among the wings expected to be drafted in the range of the Heat’s No. 27 pick are Arizona’s Dalen Terry, Nebraska’s Bryce McGowens, MarJon Beauchamp of the G League Ignite, Duke’s Trevor Keels, Santa Clara’s Jalen Williams, Michigan’s Caleb Houstan and Kansas’ Christian Braun. Among the forwards expected to be picked in that range are international prospect Nikola Jovic, Wake Forest’s Jake LaRavia, Baylor’s Kendall Brown and Milwaukee’s Patrick Baldwin Jr.
“I think this is a pretty deep draft class in the sense that a lot of players entered the draft that probably should have gone back to school if they wanted to enter the NBA on the red carpet in terms of having great momentum going into the draft,” ESPN NBA Draft analyst Jonathan Givony said to the Miami Herald. “... I think in that regard it’s a good draft to have No. 27 because every year we see players that are in the green room fall to the end of the first round. One of those guys or even two of them could definitely be there when the Heat pick.”
Unless the Heat’s No. 27 pick is required as part of a package to add another star to the roster, simply dealing the selection to facilitate a move that sheds salary, unlocks future picks to trade or brings back multiple second-round picks in this year’s draft may not be enough to justify parting ways with its first-round selection.
Marks points out that the first-round pick could net the Heat a quality developmental prospect on a team-friendly contract who could also serve as depth this upcoming season. That’s important considering the Heat isn’t on track to enter free agency with cap space and is not far away from entering the luxury tax.
Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson combine for $113 million on the Heat’s books next season, and projections indicate the salary cap will be about $122 million and the luxury-tax threshold will be about $149 million. Throw in P.J. Tucker ($7.4 million player option), Tyler Herro ($5.7 million), Max Strus ($1.8 million non-guaranteed salary), Gabe Vincent ($1.8 million non-guaranteed salary), Omer Yurtseven ($1.8 million non-guaranteed salary) and Haywood Highsmith ($1.8 million non-guaranteed salary), and that puts the Heat at about $135.6 million committed to salaries for next season with cap holds.
Along with Tucker having the option to enter free agency, there are five players from the Heat’s season-ending roster who will become free agents this summer: Dewayne Dedmon, Udonis Haslem, Markieff Morris and Victor Oladipo will be unrestricted free agents, and Caleb Martin will be a restricted free agent as long as the Heat extends a $2.1 million qualifying offer to him ahead of free agency.
With the 27th pick slotted to make as much as $2.2 million this upcoming season and first-round picks under team control for five seasons, it can be viewed as a cheaper option than re-signing Oladipo or Martin and one with more upside than signing a veteran to a minimum contract for one season.
“Based on what your offseason resources are, you could potentially have a more inexpensive option than Victor Oladipo,” Marks said of the Heat’s first-round pick. “Free agency is not good this year. This is not a good free-agent class. So I think any time you have the opportunity to find inexpensive help that’s going to be on a four-year contract instead of doing it all again next year with a player on a veteran minimum contract because of where you are with the salary cap, I think that’s probably a stronger option to do something like that. I think that’s probably why I would be reluctant to trade that pick.”
The Heat’s last four first-round picks have been Precious Achiuwa in 2020, Tyler Herro in 2019, Bam Adebayo in 2017 and Justise Winslow in 2015. Achiuwa is the only one in that group who was not a top-14 lottery selection.
Of course, the Heat could trade the No. 27 pick as part of a package to move up in the draft for a prospect it covets. That’s an option that also shouldn’t be ruled out for all of the reasons why Marks values Miami’s current selection.
“I think they’re just going to keep an open mind,” Givony said of the Heat. “They just scout so hard that they’re going to have a really good feel for all of those players who are in that range.”
This story was originally published June 20, 2022 at 10:42 AM.
