The busiest stretch of the NBA offseason is almost here. 10 Heat things to know to prepare
The Miami Heat’s season ended just three weeks ago in the Eastern Conference finals, but the busiest stretch of the offseason is already nearly here.
The NBA Draft is Thursday, teams and players will need to make decisions on options in contracts in the coming days and the start of free agency is near. The league hasn’t announced an official start date for free agency yet, but it’s expected to open on June 30.
Plus, it’s officially the NBA offseason after the Golden State Warriors clinched the championship with a win over the Boston Celtics on Thursday night.
Here are 10 Heat things to know entering the most eventual part of the offseason:
▪ The Heat holds the No. 27 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. But the Heat does not have a second-round pick because it was forced to forfeit the selection as a result of the NBA’s investigation into last offseason’s sign-and-trade acquisition of Kyle Lowry from the Toronto Raptors.
The Heat can buy its way into the second-round if it chooses to with the help of $5.8 million available to purchase such a selection, which is more that enough to buy a second-round pick. But because of the Heat’s success in developing undrafted prospects, a second-round pick may not be as valuable to the organization unless a player it covets is unexpectedly still on the board late in the draft.
Over the last nine drafts, KZ Okpala in 2019, Josh Richardson in 2015 and James Ennis in 2013 are the only second-rounders the Heat has come away with.
▪ With teams only allowed to deal draft picks up to seven drafts into the future, the Heat is currently eligible to include an unprotected 2022, 2023 and/or a 2028 first-round selection in a trade.
The NBA doesn’t allow teams to be without consecutive future first-round picks, so the Heat is technically not permitted to deal both its 2022 and 2023 selections prior to next week’s draft. But there is one loophole that would allow Miami to throw both of those picks into a trade in the coming days: The Heat could make a pre-arranged move to draft a player on Thursday and immediately deal him to another team along with the 2023 selection and even the 2028 selection to include three unprotected first-rounders as part of a trade package.
▪ Immediately after Thursday’s draft, teams around the league will work to receive commitments from undrafted prospects to fill their summer league rosters.
The list of Heat undrafted success stories includes Udonis Haslem, Tyler Johnson, Caleb Martin, Rodney McGruder, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent.
The Heat opens summer league action in San Francisco for two games scheduled for July 2 and 3 at Chase Center before moving on to Las Vegas Summer League, which runs from July 7-17.
▪ The Heat and forward P.J. Tucker have important decisions to make ahead of free agency.
The Heat has until June 29 to fully guarantee the $1.8 million salaries of Strus, Vincent and Omer Yurtseven for next season. Considering Strus and Vincent were part of the playoff rotation and Yurtseven is one of the Heat’s most intriguing developmental prospects, the Heat is fully expected to guarantee their salaries before the deadline to make sure they’re all on the roster next season.
In addition, the Heat must extend a $2.1 million qualifying offer to Martin by June 29 to make him a restricted free agent. This is considered a formality, as making Martin a restricted free agent gives Miami the right to match outside offers up to the $10.3 million mid-level exception to re-sign him.
June 29 is also an important day because it’s Tucker’s deadline to decide on the $7.4 million player option in his contract with the Heat for next season. If Tucker opts out and becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer, Miami will make it one of its top offseason priorities to sign him to a new deal to bring him back.
The Heat also must decide in the coming weeks what it wants to do with developmental forward Haywood Highsmith, whose full $1.8 million salary for next season is non-guaranteed. If Highsmith, who is expected to play for the the Heat’s summer league team this year, is not waived by Miami before July 1, $50,000 of his salary for next season will become guaranteed.
The Heat also has to figure out what to do with its two two-way contract slots, which were occupied by Mychal Mulder and Javonte Smart at the end of this past season.
▪ The Heat currently has 10 players under contract for next season: Jimmy Butler ($37.7 million), Bam Adebayo ($30.4 million), Kyle Lowry ($28.3 million), Robinson ($16.9 million), Tucker ($7.4 million player option), Tyler Herro ($5.7 million), Strus ($1.8 million non-guaranteed salary), Vincent ($1.8 million non-guaranteed salary), Yurtseven ($1.8 million non-guaranteed salary) and Highsmith ($1.8 million non-guaranteed salary).
Including cap holds, that puts the Heat at about $135.6 million committed to salaries for next season if Tucker opts in and the team guarantees the salaries of Strus, Vincent, Yurtseven and Highsmith.
Next season’s salary cap and luxury tax line have not yet been set, but projections indicate the salary cap will be about $122 million and the luxury-tax threshold will be about $149 million. The Heat is expected to operate as an over-the-cap team and leverage the Bird Rights of its own free agents to bring some of them back, unless an offseason trade changes the math.
▪ Along with Tucker having the option to enter free agency, there are five players from the Heat’s season-ending roster who will become free agents this summer: Dewayne Dedmon, Haslem, Markieff Morris and Victor Oladipo will be unrestricted free agents, and Martin will be a restricted free agent as long as the Heat extends a $2.1 million qualifying offer to him ahead of free agency.
The Heat holds full Bird rights for Haslem and Oladipo, so it can exceed the salary cap to re-sign them up to their maximum salary despite being over the cap.
The Heat holds Dedmon’s early Bird rights, so it can exceed the salary cap to re-sign him to a contract with a starting salary of up to about $11 million but for no less than two seasons.
The Heat does not hold any form of Bird rights for Morris, Tucker and Martin. That means Miami is limited to either the non-Bird exception, the bi-annual exception, one of the mid-level exceptions or a minimum contract to re-sign them this summer.
▪ As an over-the-cap team, the Heat will have a few exceptions available to sign players: the $10.3 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception and the $4.1 biannual exception, or the $6.4 million taxpayer midlevel exception.
The Heat would be able to use both the $10.3 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception and $4.1 biannual exception in one scenario, but using either of those exceptions would hard cap the Heat at about $155 million.
Or the Heat could opt to use the $6.4 million taxpayer midlevel exception instead, which would not hard cap the Heat. But using this exception will prohibit Miami from using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception and $4.1 million biannual exception during the 2022-23 NBA calendar.
▪ Considering that Butler, Adebayo, Lowry and Robinson will combine to make about $113 million next season, it’s going to be challenging for the Heat to avoid the luxury tax but not impossible.
The good news for the Heat is the punitive repeater tax (when a team is over the tax at least three times during a four-year period) is not currently a concern. The last time Miami finished a season as a tax team was in 2019-20, as it avoided the tax in the last two seasons.
▪ One factor that could lead the Heat to bring back most of this past season’s roster, other than the fact that it doesn’t hold cap space: This year’s free agent class is underwhelming compared to recent ones.
Zach LaVine is the only player who made this year’s All-Star Game who will be a free agent this summer. And according to Bleacher Report, LaVine is expected to re-sign with the Bulls.
James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal and Kyrie Irving all have player options in their contracts. But they are either expected to opt in to stay with their current team or opt out to sign a new contract with their current team.
▪ Herro, who will earn $5.7 million this upcoming season in the final year of his rookie deal, becomes eligible this offseason to sign a contact extension worth as much as $181 million over five seasons, with a first-year salary (2023-24) of $31.2 million. He can sign for five years — instead of four — only if he gets a max contract.
Herro will naturally seek a max extension from the Heat, but recent history with players of or close to his caliber entering their extension window indicates he may not get it. Jaylen Brown signed a four-year, $107 million extension with the Boston Celtics in the 2019 offseason and Mikal Bridges signed a four-year, $90 million extension with the Phoenix Suns last offseason.
The Heat and Herro have a mid-October deadline (the final day before the start of the regular season) to reach an agreement on an extension. If an extension isn’t agreed to, Herro will become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2023.
This story was originally published June 17, 2022 at 10:10 AM.
