Heat without Lowry, 76ers without Embiid to begin playoff series. What it means for matchup
Joel Embiid’s injury situation completely changed the outlook on the second-round series between the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers.
Before the 76ers confirmed Friday night that their All-Star center would miss at least Game 1 with a right orbital fracture and mild concussion, Las Vegas sportsbooks had the Heat-76ers second-round matchup as the closest among any of the four conference semifinal series.
Once Embiid’s injury became public, the Heat became the biggest favorite to win its series entering the second round. The 76ers will play Game 1 on Monday (7:30 p.m., TNT) at FTX Arena without Embiid and there’s no timetable for his return, but Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is not allowing his players buy into their improved betting odds to win the series.
“Whenever you’re dealing with a team that has to change a little bit, that immediately gets them a built-in sense of urgency,” Spoelstra said. “But again, what we’re trying to accomplish, it is so difficult. When you approach it that way, that just puts you there to compete at a high level, the necessary level that is going to be required.”
After all, the Heat is dealing with its own injury issues.
Heat starting point guard Kyle Lowry will miss Game 1 on Monday because of a strained left hamstring that he suffered in Game 3 of the team’s first-round series against the Atlanta Hawks on April 22. Lowry was also held out of the final two games of that first-round series because of the injury, with guard Gabe Vincent again expected to start in his place on Monday.
The Heat also listed Jimmy Butler (right knee inflammation), Tyler Herro (respiratory illness), Max Strus (right hamstring strain), P.J. Tucker (right calf strain), Caleb Martin (left ankle sprain) and Markieff Morris (non-COVID illness) as questionable for Game 1. They’re all expected to be available to play on Monday.
“We’ve had a lot of guys out throughout the season, so I feel like the rest of the team is built for it,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said following Sunday morning’s practice at FTX Arena. “We realize [Lowry] us out because of an injury. So it’s just next man up and we always preach that.”
Of course, both teams could get their missing key player back at some point during the series. And that could again change the outlook on the matchup.
Spoelstra said he did not have “any kind of timetable” for Lowry’s return. But there’s internal optimism that he’ll be able to come back at some point during the second round, possibly even early in the series.
And ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Sunday that Embiid won’t travel with the 76ers to Miami for Games 1 and 2, but there’s optimism he could return as soon as either Game 3 or 4 in Philadelphia.
“This is a series that could potentially change on both sides three or four times,” Spoelstra said. “It can feel totally different by the middle of it. That’s why you can just exhaust yourself with all the different hypotheticals. We basically know for both teams who’s going to play Game 1 and that’s the way it should be. You shouldn’t be thinking about Game 2, Game 3 or Game 4 or anything past that.”
What is on the Heat’s mind entering Game 1 is 76ers All-Star guard James Harden, who is expected to carry an even bigger offensive load than usual with Embiid out.
Harden’s usage rate with Philadelphia was 21 percent with Embiid on the court this regular season, but that number spiked to 36 percent when Embiid wasn’t on the court, according to PBP Stats. For perspective, a 36 percent usage rate would be the third-highest in the NBA over the entire season behind only Embiid and Dallas’ Luka Doncic.
While Harden will be the focal point of the 76ers offense without Embiid, guard Tyrese Maxey and forward Tobias Harris are also threats the Heat’s defense will need to find a way to contain.
“Even without Embiid, you’re talking about another MVP on their team who’s usage rate is going to go up considerably,” Spoelstra said, referring to Harden. “We’ve seen what he’s capable of in that kind of role and Maxey just continues to get better. It seems like virtually every month, he has taken a big step forward and then you can’t forget about Tobias Harris. He’s been a go-to guy for much of his career.”
But the metrics have not been good with Harden leading an Embiid-less 76ers team. According to Cleaning the Glass, the 76ers were outscored by 11.6 points per 100 possessions in 374 possessions that Harden played without Embiid on the court in the regular season.
In the first round against the Toronto Raptors, the 76ers were outscored by 6.8 points per 100 possessions in 84 possessions that Harden played without Embiid.
“We need him back at some point, but we don’t know when and we got to hold the fort,” 76ers coach Doc Rivers said of playing without Embiid to begin the series. “This is why we pay everybody, and this team has a great belief system. We’ve had a lot of stuff thrown at us this year with guys out — maybe this is another test in that.
“We’re going nowhere, I can tell you that. This team will be ready when we get to Miami.”
With limited film available of Harden playing without Embiid since he was just acquired by the 76ers in a trade in February, Spoelstra said the Heat has studied Harden’s film with the Houston Rockets to prepare for what Miami expects to be a Harden-centric 76ers offense. Harden was named the NBA’s MVP for the 2017-18 season as a member of the Rockets.
“Tuck has helped out as well quite a bit. He knows him as well as anybody,” Spoelstra said of Tucker, who was Harden’s teammate with the Rockets for three-plus seasons. “Look, [Harden] has kind of redefined what a player can do at the top of the floor with a high usage rate, to be able to score and make plays and elevate a team. You have to be able to respect what he’s capable of.”
As fast as the feeling surrounding the series changed following the news of Embiid’s injury, the Heat and 76ers know the conversation could again shift quickly based on one surprising result or if Lowry and/or Embiid return.
“They feel like they have enough, we feel like we have enough,” Spoelstra said. “I guess probably both sides are ready just to tip this thing up. Right now you’re just checking boxes covering all the minutiae at this point. I think everybody is just ready to get going with this game and get this series started.”
This story was originally published May 1, 2022 at 1:01 PM.
