Important questions surrounding Heat-76ers series, and how Embiid’s absence changes things
The top-seeded Miami Heat and fourth-seeded Philadelphia 76ers begin their best-of-7 first-round playoff series on Monday at 7:30 p.m. at FTX Arena.
Here are six questions surrounding the matchup, with answers on what to expect in the Heat-76ers series and a prediction:
The Heat and 76ers split their regular-season series 2-2. What does that mean for the series?
Not much. Why? The current version of these two teams have yet to truly face each other.
First, the Heat has yet to face the 76ers with All-Star guard James Harden in the lineup. Harden missed both games against Miami after he was traded to Philadelphia in February.
Second, the Heat’s entire leading trio of Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry was available for only one of its four matchups against the 76ers this season.
And finally, the 76ers could be without their best player for the entire playoff series. Philadelphia center and MVP candidate Joel Embiid will miss at least Game 1 with a right orbital fracture and mild concussion, and there’s no timetable for his return.
What’s the injury situation for both teams?
The Heat and 76ers will both be without key players at the start of the series.
Lowry will miss Game 1 on Monday because of a strained left hamstring that he suffered in Game 3 of the team’s first-round series against the Atlanta Hawks on April 22. Lowry was also held out of the final two games of that first-round series because of the injury.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said Sunday he did not have “any kind of timetable” for Lowry’s return. But there’s internal optimism that he’ll be able to come back at some point during the second round, possibly even early in the series.
The Heat also listed Butler (right knee inflammation), Tyler Herro (respiratory illness), Max Strus (right hamstring strain), P.J. Tucker (right calf strain), Caleb Martin (left ankle sprain) and Markieff Morris (non-COVID illness) as questionable for Game 1. They’re all expected to be available to play on Monday.
Meanwhile, the 76ers need to figure out how to survive life without their All-Star center to upset the Heat in the second round. It’s possible that Embiid could miss the entire series because of his orbital fracture, which would be devastating for Philadelphia.
The 76ers also listed rookie center Charles Bassey as questionable for Game 1 because of right shoulder soreness.
How much of a difference does Embiid’s absence make? The Heat was a 3.5-point betting favorite in Game 1 on Friday afternoon, but the line quickly jumped to 8.5 points when news of Embiid’s injury surfaced.
As for the series, the Heat is now the clear-cut betting favorite. Before the Embiid news, the lines at Caesars Sportsbook (+150 for the 76ers and -180 for the Heat) implied a 40 percent chance of the 76ers winning the series. But the line as of Sunday morning (+320 for the 76ers and -420 for the Heat) has trimmed that to just 23 percent.
What can the Heat expect from an Embiid-less 76ers team?
Embiid was arguably the NBA’s best player — finishing the regular season as the NBA’s scoring champion, averaging 33.8 minutes per game and posting a league-high usage rate (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while on the court) of 37.5 percent. Considering how important Embiid is, it’s apparent that the 76ers will need to a play a different style in the second round while he’s unavailable.
Philadelphia has a few options to choose from to fill Embiid’s minutes.
Veterans DeAndre Jordan and Paul Millsap can play at center, but they were not part of the rotation in the first round.
Instead, 76ers coach Doc Rivers went with second-year big man Paul Reed as the backup center against the Toronto Raptors in the opening round of the playoffs. Reed is undersized at the position at 6-9 and 210 pounds and is not a threat from three-point range, but brings energy and a presence on the glass with 10.9 rebounds per 36 minutes in the regular season and 12.7 rebounds per 36 minutes in the first round.
Moving Reed into Embiid’s spot in the startling lineup, which already includes Harden, Tyrese Maxey, Danny Green and Tobias Harris, could be the answer for Philadelphia against Miami. This Harden-Maxey-Green-Harris-Reed lineup played just five minutes together in the regular season, but outscored the Raptors by 48.7 points per 100 possessions in 17 minutes in the opening round of the playoffs.
The 76ers can also choose to go small and start forward Georges Niang (6-7, 230) at center. Niang, who shot 40.3 percent on 5.1 three-point attempts in the regular season, would help stretch the floor and create space for Harden, Harris and Maxey to attack and operate in the paint.
The 76ers did not use small lineups with Niang at center in the first round and rarely went with that look in the regular season. Niang played as Philadelphia’s small-ball center for about 59 minutes in the regular season, according to NBA tracking stats, with opponents outscoring the 76ers by 14 points during that time.
The obvious drawback to such a strategy would be the 76ers’ lack of rim protection. Along with being undersized at center, Niang’s 13 blocks this regular season were a career-high.
The 76ers also have Bassey on their roster. But Bassey has not appeared in a game since Feb. 15.
“We may need all four guys, even if it’s to burn minutes,” Rivers said Saturday, referring to Jordan, Millsap, Reed and Bassey. “The one thing Miami is, if they’re nothing else, they’re clever. They’re foul magnets. That’s a concern for us. Two reasons: They shoot free throws well, so we don’t want to play the whole series in the penalty. And No. 2, getting some of our guys in foul trouble.
“Bam does a great job of that, Jimmy Butler may be the best at it in the series now without Joel, and Kyle Lowry does it. We just have to be very smart in how we plan our bigs.”
However the 76ers end up choosing to fill the void at center, the trio of Harden, Maxey and Harris will definitely have to carry a bigger offensive load than usual with Embiid out.
Harden, specifically, will be relied on to make the 76ers’ offense work without Embiid. Harden’s usage rate with Philadelphia was 21 percent with Embiid on the court this regular season, but that number spiked to 36 percent when Embiid wasn’t on the court, according to PBP Stats.
For perspective, a 36 percent usage rate would be the third-highest in the NBA over the entire season behind only Embiid and Dallas’ Luka Doncic.
“We’re going to play more of a James-dominant offense than we have because we have to,” Rivers told reporters on Saturday. “We’re going to space the floor, we’re going to play in space more.”
Where can the Heat most take advantage of Embiid’s absence?
While the 76ers’ offense struggled without Embiid this regular season, the unit was better suited to survive minutes without Embiid after acquiring Harden in February. Philadelphia scored 113.7 points scored per 100 possessions without Embiid on the court following Harden’s 76ers debut, which is an offensive rating that would have ranked eighth-best in the NBA for the season.
And in the first round against the Raptors, the 76ers somehow produced a better offensive rating when Embiid wasn’t playing. Philadelphia scored 118.7 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court in the series, compared to 119.2 points per 100 possessions when he wasn’t on the court.
That doesn’t mean the 76ers are a better offensive team without Embiid. That’s certainly not the case, as the Heat can now load up on Harden and the 76ers’ other perimeter weapons without having to double Embiid at the elbow or in the post.
But where Philadelphia will miss Embiid the most is on the defensive end. The 76ers simply don’t have anybody else on their roster who can anchor their defense like Embiid, who averaged 1.5 blocks per game and limited those he defended to 57.6 percent shooting from within six feet of the basket (6.6 percent worse than those players’ overall shooting percentage from that range) this regular season.
The 76ers allowed 107.8 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court in the regular season, a defensive rating that would have ranked fourth-best in the NBA. But that number jumped to 110.8 points per 100 possessions without Embiid, a defensive rating that would have ranked 13th.
The drop-off was even bigger in the first round of the playoffs, as the 76ers allowed 117.2 points per 100 possessions when Embiid was on the bench. When Embiid was playing, the Raptors scored just 106.5 points per 100 possessions in the series. That’s essentially going from a top-five defense with Embiid to the worst defense in the NBA without him.
Who will be an important player for the Heat in this series?
Aside from obvious answers of Adebayo and Butler, this is a matchup Herro could take advantage of on the offensive end. The 76ers are known to play a good amount of drop coverage, especially if Embiid and Jordan are on the court. That should mean more midrange looks.
That’s good news for Herro, who struggled in the first round with 12.8 points per game on 39.1 percent shooting from the field and 17.9 percent shooting on threes.
A large chunk of Herro’s offense in the regular season came in the midrange, as he shot 42 percent on those looks to finish in the NBA’s 61st percentile in that department among guards, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Considering the volume of midrange attempts Herro may run into in this series, that shot will be important to the Heat’s offense.
Drop coverage should also open more clean three-point looks for Herro, who shot 39.9 percent on 6.7 three-point attempts per game in the regular season.
If Herro can hit outside shots, this could be a big series for him.
What will the Heat’s rotation look like?
The Heat’s rotation is always changing, with Spoelstra tweaking his rotation from game to game based on matchups and what’s working at that particular time. The uncertainty surrounding Lowry’s status also makes it hard to predict the Heat’s rotation in the second round.
Adebayo, Butler, Herro, Lowry, Strus and Tucker look to be locks to play each game when available. Then Spoelstra will choose between Dewayne Dedmon, Martin, Morris, Victor Oladipo, Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent for the final three or four spots in the rotation.
Vincent’s role will obviously be bigger in games Lowry can’t play, with Vincent then expected to start in his place. Without Lowry, Oladipo will also probably play extended minutes off the bench after impressing in the final two games of Miami’s first-round series.
The question is if Lowry and Butler are available, will Spoelstra still try to find minutes for Oladipo? Would he play over Vincent, Robinson or Martin in that scenario? That’s the question that remains unanswered for now.
Prediction: Heat in five. (Assuming Embiid does not return in the series)
This story was originally published May 1, 2022 at 9:50 AM.
