As Heat sorts through rotation, what has been the best lineup and other things to know
With less than two weeks left in the regular season, the Miami Heat is still working through different lineup and rotation combinations in an effort to find the best ones.
That’s not ideal with the playoffs just around the corner, but it’s the Heat’s reality as it has dealt with injury issues throughout the season that have kept key players out at different times. The recent returns of Markieff Morris and Victor Oladipo from extended absences have also forced late-season tweaks to the rotation.
“I don’t think we are where we need to be at all,” guard Kyle Lowry said last week ahead of Monday night’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings at FTX Arena. “Rotations still kind of are funky right now, and we’re trying to figure it out. Vic is just getting himself back, Markieff is just getting himself back. We’re still just trying to figure out what we’re doing rotation-wise.
“That’s going to take time, but not too much. We don’t have too much time. But the playoff rotation will be a little bit shorter and tighter and those things will work themselves out. I think our coach does a good job of figuring stuff out. He always has and he will.”
Here are some noteworthy Heat lineup tidbits to know entering Monday’s matchup against the Kings ...
▪ A concerning aspect of the Heat’s recent offensive struggles is that it has not been a good offensive team with Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Lowry on the court together. Miami has outscored teams by 6.6 points per 100 possessions but has scored just 107.4 points per 100 possessions in their 586 minutes together this season for an offensive rating that would rank 28th among NBA teams.
With Tyler Herro added to lineups also including Adebayo, Butler and Lowry, the Heat has scored just 90.7 points per 100 possessions in 100 minutes together this season. Those four have been outscored by 11.1 points per 100 possessions during that time.
▪ Who has helped the Adebayo, Butler and Lowry trio the most? It appears that the shooting of Duncan Robinson has been the best complement to their games, as the Heat has outscored opponents by 11.7 points per 100 possessions in the 452 minutes that Adebayo, Butler, Lowry and Robinson have played together.
The offense still has its issues, but Miami’s scoring does move closer to leave average with those four on the court. The Adebayo-Butler-Lowry-Robinson look has scored 110.9 points per 100 possessions this season.
▪ Among Heat lineups that have logged at least 75 minutes together this season, the best has actually been the starting lineup of Lowry, Robinson, Butler, P.J. Tucker and Adebayo. This group has outscored opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions in large part because of its elite defensive rating of just 98.7 points allowed per 100 possessions.
On the other end of the spectrum, the combination of Lowry, Herro, Robinson, Tucker and Dewayne Dedmon has been the worst among Heat lineups that have played at least 75 minutes together this season. This group has outscored opponents by 1.1 points per 100 possessions.
▪ Among Heat lineups that have logged at least 15 fourth-quarter minutes this season, the most effective has been the grouping of Gabe Vincent, Herro, Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Adebayo. This lineup has outscored opponents by 38.4 points per 100 possessions in the 20 fourth-quarter minutes they’ve spent together this season behind an absurdly good defensive rating of 64.1 points allowed per 100 possessions.
The worst fourth-quarter lineup that meets that criteria has been the combination of Herro, Robinson, Butler, Tucker and Adebayo. This group has been outscored by 32 points per 100 possessions in 16 fourth-quarter minutes in large part because it has scored at a very inefficient pace of just 61.8 points per 100 possessions.
▪ The group that many believed would close most games for the Heat this season has actually been one of its best fourth-quarter lineups. The combination of Lowry, Herro, Butler, Tucker and Adebayo has outscored teams by 20.3 points per 100 possessions in 16 fourth-quarter minutes.
▪ The Heat’s halfcourt offense has been shaky at times this season, even through all of the wins. Miami’s only lineups that have produced an above average offensive rating in the half court, according to Cleaning The Glass, are Herro-Robinson-Butler-Tucker-Dedmon, Lowry-Herro-Robinson-Tucker-Dedmon, Vincent-Herro-Strus-Martin-Dedmon, and Lowry-Herro-Martin-Butler-Omer Yurtseven.
SPOELSTRA BACK
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is back on the sideline for Monday’s game against the Kings.
Spoelstra did not coach in Saturday’s loss to the Brooklyn Nets because one of his two sons underwent a medical procedure. Heat assistant coach Chris Quinn handled head coaching duties in Spoelstra’s absence.
Saturday marked just the third game that Spoelstra has missed in his 14 seasons as the Heat’s head coach. He previously missed two games because of the birth of his two sons, Santiago and Dante.
INJURY REPORT
Herro (left knee sprain), Tucker (left knee irritation) and Vincent (right big toe contusion) are available to play Monday despite being listed as questionable for for the game. Martin has been ruled out because of a right calf contusion, and Mychal Mulder and Javonte Smart remain in the G League as part of their two-way deals with the Heat.
The Kings will be without its top two scorers against the Heat — De’Aaron Fox (right hand soreness) and Domantas Sabonis (left knee contusion). Sacramento also ruled out Terence Davis (right wrist recovery), Richaun Holmes (personal reasons) and Josh Jackson (non-COVID illness).
This story was originally published March 28, 2022 at 12:27 PM.
