Heat at risk of falling to fourth seed: Sizing up the East. And Heat players react to skid
Ten days ago, the Heat appeared well positioned to lock up the top seed in the Eastern Conference after a regular season filled with injuries but few other speed bumps.
Now, after a nightmarish week, Miami not only is no longer in first in the East, but also stands in danger of tumbling all the way to fourth with two weeks remaining in the season.
Entering Sunday night’s games (Minnesota-Boston and Philadelphia-Phoenix were the key ones), Miami (47-28) stood second in the East, percentage points behind Philadelphia (46-27).
The Heat - which plays host to Sacramento on Monday - entered Sunday one half game ahead of No. 3 Boston and No. 4 Milwaukee.
The Bulls (43-31) are fifth, 3.5 games behind Miami.
In some ways, falling to fourth could be perversely advantageous to Miami at least initially, because it would likely eliminate the chance of facing Brooklyn in the first round.
If the No. 8 Nets (39-35) - who were set to play Charlotte on Sunday night - remain eighth and stay ahead of the No. 9 Hornets (38-36) and No. 10 Atlanta (37-37) in the standings, then Brooklyn would face the No. 7 team in the play-in tournament.
The No. 7 seed - which would host that game against the No. 8 seed - likely will be either Chicago (43-31) or Cleveland (41-33) or Toronto (42-32). The Cavs held the seventh seed entering Sunday, two games ahead of Brooklyn. The fifth-seeded Bulls lead Toronto by one game and Cleveland by two.
The winner of that No. 7-8 play-in game would be the seventh seed and face the second seed in the first round. The loser of that 7-8 play-in game would face the winner of the 9-10 play-in game and emerge from the play-in round with the No. 8 seed, meaning a matchup against the top seed in the first round.
Because of the way the Heat is playing and Brooklyn getting Kyrie Irving back for home games (after a change in New York City’s vaccine policy), Miami could enter a 1-8 or 2-7 matchup with Brooklyn as the betting underdog, if the matchups shake out that way.
So an easier initial path for Miami would be falling to four and playing the fifth seed (likely Chicago, Toronto or Cleveland). But that would also mean sacrificing homecourt advantage in a second-round series against the top seed.
Where each contender stands in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the East:
▪ Heat: Instead of seizing on a seemingly forgivable stretch of games (with Philadelphia, Golden State and the Knicks missing their best players), the Heat instead has very much left itself at risk as the schedule now stiffens.
Of Miami’s seven games left, only two are against teams whose seasons will end when the regular season ends: Monday at home to Sacramento and the finale at Orlando on Sunday, April 10.
In between are games at Boston, at Chicago and at Toronto and home to Charlotte and Atlanta.
▪ Philadelphia: The Heat and 76ers split the season series. Miami would currently win the tiebreaker because of a superior record in the Eastern Conference (30-16 to 27-17).
But the 76ers have an easier schedule, on paper, than Miami, with home games against Milwaukee, Charlotte, Indiana and Detroit; and road games at Detroit, Cleveland, Indiana and Toronto.
▪ Milwaukee: The Heat and Bucks split the season series, but Miami is in good position to win the tiebreaker because of a better record in the Eastern Conference (30-16 to 28-18).
The Bucks’ schedule is arguably the most difficult of these four teams battling for the top seed in the East.
Milwaukee has road games at Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland. The Bucks have home dates with the Clippers, Dallas and Boston.
▪ Boston: The Celtics won the first two games of the three-game season series and would win the tiebreaker with Miami, regardless of the outcome of Wednesday’s ESPN-televised game in Boston.
The Celtics have turned around their season, winning 23 of their last 27.
The Celtics’ schedule to close the season isn’t easy, with a Monday game at Toronto, and a three-game road trip to end the season, against Chicago, Milwaukee and Memphis. But the Grizzlies could rest players if they have clinched the No. 2 seed in the West at that point, which appears likely. The Bucks might, too, if their playoff path is set.
Before that season-ending trip, Boston has home games against Miami, Indiana and Washington.
So the idea of the Celtics surpassing Miami - unfathomable when Boston was 23-24 - is now quite realistic.
THIS AND THAT
▪ Kely Lowry said late Saturday night that it’s not time to panic after a fourth consecutive loss.
“I couldn’t have foreseen it,” he said. “We’re not concerned in the sense of panicking, but we have to fix some stuff. We’re getting to that point that we really have to kind of say, ‘All right, we need to figure some things out.’”
Is the problem more offensively or defensively? “Both,” Lowry said. “We scored 95 [in Saturday’s 14-point loss to Brooklyn] barely and we are a team that can possible score 120. We have to find a way to get more shots on goal, less turnovers.
Miami committed a season-high 24 turnovers against Brooklyn.
“Defensively, we need to figure out where we are going to be on all times,” Lowry said. “We have some indecisive minutes with coverages and situations.”
Chris Quinn -- who filled in for Erik Spoelstra on Saturday night because one of Spoelstra’s two sons was undergoing a medical procedure -- said: “We have a very prideful group. These guys I’m confident will respond and be ready for the next game.”
▪ The Heat’s offense ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in efficiency during this 3-6 stretch. So what does the offense need?
“I don’t make the decisions,” Herro said. “There are holes in the offense we can figure out as a team.”
Asked the overriding emotion in the locker room -- shock, anger, disappointment -- Herro said this four-game swoon is “disappointing at this point in the year. We want to be playing our best basketball at this point.
“You embrace the lows as much as you embrace the highs. This is what is going to make us. We’ll continue to fight. Perspective on our goals hasn’t changed at all. It’s been disappointing but we’ll figure it out before the playoffs.”
▪ Whether Victor Oladipo can help the Heat significantly this season is becoming increasingly questionable.
Since shooting 4 for 7 in his first game of the season, Oladipo has shot 11 for 33 from the field, including 2 for 13 on threes. He had five turnovers on Saturday against Brooklyn.
The Tyler Herro/Oladipo tandem played well together in Oladipo’s first game back but remains a work in progress.
“I’m trying to get Vic in the swing of things and get him the ball in his spots so he’ll feel comfortable again,” Herro said.
INJURY UPDATE
Herro (knee sprain), P.T Tucker (knee irritation), Caleb Martin (calf contusion) and Gabe Vincent (toe contusion) are questionable for Monday’s game.
The Kings will be without their two best players: De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. The Heat lost last week against Philadelphia and Golden State teams playing without their two best players. Sacramento also will be without Terence Davis and Richaun Holmes.
This story was originally published March 27, 2022 at 10:33 AM.
