How concerning is Heat’s late-game offense? And NBA rules on questionable no-call vs. Bucks
The Miami Heat has won a lot of games this season. In fact, it owns the top record in the Eastern Conference.
But the one issue that has consistently followed the Heat has to do with its late-game offense. The issue popped up again in Wednesday night’s painful 120-119 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum.
Pulling ahead by 14 with 7:12 to play, the Heat was outscored 21-6 over the final 5:49 as the Bucks completed the comeback win. Milwaukee stepped up its defensive pressure, and the Heat missed seven of its last 10 shots and committed four turnovers during the final seven minutes.
Before the offense was slowed during this seven-minute stretch, the Heat had 113 points on 47.1 percent shooting from the field with just eight turnovers in the first 41 minutes.
“It’s expected to happen that down the stretch, the game slows down and it becomes harder to execute your stuff,” Heat forward Duncan Robinson said following Wednesday’s loss and ahead of Thursday night’s game against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center. “So that’s part of it. I think the other part is you got to give some credit to them in that they did a good job of being disruptive, getting deflections, being in passing lanes and then also just being physical on switches and not really allowing us to create any separation. At the same time, we’ll definitely learn a lesson of just execution and the importance of it down the stretch.”
It’s a lesson the Heat has been forced to learn more than a few times, as it owns the NBA’s fifth-worst clutch offensive rating this season with 100.5 points scored per 100 possessions in those situations. A clutch game is defined as one that has a margin of five points or fewer inside the final five minutes of the fourth quarter.
The only teams with a worse clutch offensive rating than the Heat are four with losing overall records — the San Antonio Spurs, New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers and Atlanta Hawks.
There were only two minutes of clutch play in Wednesday’s loss to the Bucks because the Heat led by more than five until Bobby Portis converted a tip-in to trim the deficit to four with 2:12 to play. But whether they came in the clutch or not, Wednesday’s late-game offensive miscues were a continuation of a trend that has hurt an otherwise elite Heat team.
According to ESPN, NBA teams entered Wednesday with a 2-488 record this season when trailing by 14 or more points in the final six minutes of regulation this season.
“Definitely how to finish games with the lead, taking care of the ball and just finishing games,” said Heat guard Tyler Herro, who committed three turnovers in the final 4:55. “I think that’s something we can definitely take away from tonight.”
In total, the Heat has shot 40 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from three-point range in clutch situations this season. Miami also has turned into a below average rebounding team in the clutch, posting the NBA’s eighth-worst rebounding percentage (the percentage of available rebounds a team grabs) at 48.3 percent compared to the sixth-best rebounding percentage in all situations at 51.4 percent this season.
With the pace usually slowing late in close games, some of the Heat’s issues in these situations stem from its half-court offense.
The Heat owns the NBA’s seventh-best offensive rating but the 11th-most efficient halfcourt offense this season. Miami has outperformed its halfcourt metrics in part because it has added the second-most points through transition play at 3.9 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.
“I thought we managed our offense. We got the ball where we needed it to go,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said of the late-game offense in Wednesday’s loss. “I liked the looks, even the ones we missed. There were some good ones. So we’ll get to the film and we’ll see what we can do better.”
The eventual return of starting point guard Kyle Lowry should help. Lowry, who missed his third straight game on Thursday because of personal reasons, has totaled a team-high 46 points on 16-of-28 (57.1 percent) shooting from the field and 5-of-12 (41.7 percent) shooting from three-point range in clutch situations this season.
Also, the Heat has managed to post a quality 18-12 record in clutch games this season despite its offensive issues in those situations. That’s in part because Miami has been dominant on the other end, posting the NBA’s sixth-best clutch defensive rating with 101.5 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Nonetheless, late-game offense is an issue the Heat knows it needs to continue to monitor and improve on over the final six weeks of the regular season.
“The pain of losing a game like that, those lessons stick with you a lot more than when you give up a lead and you’re still able to win,” Robinson said. “Just everything, the execution, all those in-between plays. Obviously, this one is going to stick with us, for sure.”
NO CALL A GOOD CALL?
Spoelstra and Heat players were not happy with what they believed should have been called a foul on a crucial play in the final seconds.
Ahead by one point with 13.5 seconds left, Heat guard Gabe Vincent threw a tough inbounds pass that Jimmy Butler caught in traffic. As soon as Butler made the tough catch, there looked to be contact from Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Butler was then forced to the ground, allowing Antetokounmpo to tie him up and force a jump ball. The rest is history, as Antetokounmpo won the jump ball and Jrue Holiday hit the game-winner seconds later.
“I’m not going to make a buffoon of myself. I’m not going to go on a big rant about the officiating,” Spoelstra said. “I’m just shocked. I’m shocked that wasn’t a foul on Jimmy as we were trying to inbound. We certainly had some other opportunities to be able to close out the game, particularity when we were up four.
“That’s just the way it goes. I have not looked at that. I just can’t imagine from my vantage point how that wasn’t a foul and that turned into a jump ball. But they still have to make a play and Holiday made a big play.”
But the NBA’s Officiating Last Two Minute Report ruled that the no-call on the play was correct. According to the report released Thursday: “Antetokounmpo (MIL) and Butler (MIA) arrive at the ball simultaneously during the inbound pass and the body contact that occurs is incidental. Butler (MIA) receives the pass and lands on two feet prior to falling to the ground. Before the held ball, Antetokounmpo (MIL) makes marginal contact to the arm of Butler (MIA) as he attempts to tie up the ball.”
“Jimmy made a great catch,” Vincent said. “Usually that call with that physicality in the air when you catch and get hit, usually that ends up being a foul. It wasn’t and they ended up tying it up.”
This story was originally published March 3, 2022 at 1:25 PM.
