How important is Duncan Robinson’s shooting to Heat’s winning formula? A closer look
Whether Duncan Robinson is making a bunch of threes or not, he’s important to the functionality of the Miami Heat’s offense.
The extra defenders he attracts when he comes off handoffs or other off-ball actions help to create space for the Heat’s attackers. But it’s clear that Miami is better when Robinson’s three-point attempts are going in.
Entering Wednesday night’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum, the Heat held a 22-7 record this season when Robinson finished with at least three made three-pointers in a game and a 19-14 record when he didn’t. The Heat completes the quick two-game trip on Thursday against the Brooklyn Nets (7:30 p.m., Bally Sports Sun) on the second night of a back-to-back.
“I think that’s a multi-layered statistic. It needs context,” Robinson said when told that factoid. “You can paint it a lot of different ways. I don’t think it’s cut and dry that if I make shots, [we win]. I think it’s probably, you can also look at why do I make four or five. Maybe the ball is moving better, whatever it may be.”
When Robinson, 27, hasn’t made more than one three-pointer in a game, the Heat is 5-8 this season.
“I think, obviously, if I’m able to make some and see some go, I think it opens us up,” Robinson continued. “It allows us to attack in kind of different ways because defenses then have to adjust. But at the same time, I think just what I see night in and night out just from the start of games, whether or not I make shots, I can still create that advantage.”
Heat guard Tyler Herro agreed, noting that “when Duncan gets going, he opens up the floor for everyone else. He’s such a great shooter that people are going to key on him no matter what, whether he’s making or missing shots. When he’s making shots, it just makes our offense that much more dynamic.”
Understanding and remembering his importance to the Heat’s offense has helped Robinson get through his shooting slumps. Robinson entered Wednesday shooting 36.1 percent from three-point range on 8.3 attempts per game this season.
This comes after Robinson shot 42.7 percent on 8.4 three-point attempts per game over the previous two seasons — his first two full NBA seasons. Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry is the only player in NBA history who has shot 42 percent or better from deep on eight or more three-point attempts per game during his career.
It will take some work for Robinson to reach the 40 percent threshold for a third straight season after shooting 44.6 percent on threes in 2019-20 and 40.8 percent on 2020-21. If he continues to average 8.3 attempts per game, he would need to shoot about 51.8 percent from deep over the final six weeks of the regular season to lift his three-point percentage to 40 percent.
While that’s unlikely, he has shot 38.3 percent from three-point range since the start of December after making just 32.8 percent of his threes before that point over the first 21 games of the season.
“His whole career is highs and lows,” Heat captain Udonis Haslem said of Robinson. “He wasn’t drafted, he wasn’t expected to be here. Spent some time in the G League to a $90 million contract. Highs and lows are nothing new to Duncan. He has built a grit that’s different than the grit that I have, that’s different than the grit than Jimmy [Butler] has. But it’s still grit.
“We had no worries about Duncan. We knew he would figure it out, we knew he would overcome. We love when people doubt him. I remember watching an interview when he asked some of the reporters, ‘You doubted me?’ I love that [stuff]. We know what we got in Duncan.”
Robinson knows his value and understands that “if I’m my best version, it allows us to be our best version offensively.” That’s why he isn’t satisfied with only serving as a space creator.
“That’s not enough just to know that I’m providing space,” Robinson said. “I want more for myself, I want more to try to help this team. I want to do more to try to help this team, but it doesn’t need to be talked about. I think I understand that, I think they understand it. I think that’s what you see when I’m maybe not making shots, that I still have an opportunity to try to help us win.”
OLADIPO FEEDBACK
Heat guard Victor Oladipo continues to move closer to making his season debut.
Oladipo was sent to the Heat’s G League affiliate on Sunday to take part in five-on-five work. This marks the second time in recent weeks that Oladipo has traveled to take part in practices with the Sioux Falls Skyforce after undergoing May surgery to repair the quadriceps tendon in his right knee.
Oladipo went through his third and final practice during his second stint with the Skyforce on Wednesday morning before joining the Heat in Milwaukee later that day. The Heat has not issued a timetable for Oladipo’s return, but league sources confirmed an ESPN report over the weekend that the hope is Oladipo will return to game action within the next two weeks.
“He has had two good days,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra of Oladipo after Wednesday morning’s shootaround session. “He still has another workout, actually probably right now. They’ve been good days, two really good days of work.”
THIS AND THAT
▪ Markieff Morris, who has not played since sustaining a neck injury on Nov. 8 when Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic shoved him to the court, did not travel with the Heat to Milwaukee for the start of its two-game trip. Why isn’t Morris on the trip?
“Just not as much going on,” Spoelstra said. “We’re not practicing. This was more of a walk through than a shootaround. So he was able to get a lot more work done back home.”
Morris traveled with the Heat to New York for last week’s game against the Knicks, but the team went through a full practice in Brooklyn on the eve of that game.
▪ Caleb Martin, who was listed as questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Bucks because of left Achilles soreness, is expected to play in Milwaukee.
But the Heat will be without Kyle Lowry (personal reasons), Morris (return to competition reconditioning), Oladipo (right knee injury recovery) and Javonte Smart (G League) against the Bucks.
▪ Nets star Kevin Durant is expected to return from a sprained left MCL to play Thursday against the Heat. Durant has missed the past 21 games because of the injury, with the Nets posting a 5-16 record during that time.
This story was originally published March 2, 2022 at 2:19 PM.
