A Miami Heat trade for Lillard, Simmons or McCollum? Exploring the possibilities
Five former top-10 NBA Draft picks were bandied about in trade speculation this past week, with three of them carrying pricey long-term contracts (Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Ben Simmons) and two others (Collin Sexton and Marvin Bagley) eligible for restricted free agency in 12 months.
Would any make sense as trade targets for the Heat?
We examinated Sexton and Bagley in this piece.
Exploring Lillard, McCollum and Simmons:
DAMIAN LILLARD, PORTLAND GUARD
The background: Lillard has pushed back against any notion that he wants out of Portland in the past. But on Sunday, Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports reported that “the enormous backlash from the Portland Trail Blazers’ process to hire a new coach and his concerns on whether a championship contender can be built have become factors that may push the franchise player — Damian Lillard — out the door.”
Lillard received social-media backlash after he endorsed the hiring of Chauncey Billups, who was the subject rape allegations in 1997. No criminal charges were filed and Billups settled a civil lawsuit with the woman.
Billups was recently named Portland’s new head coach.
Lillard, a six-time All-Star, has spent each of his nine NBA seasons with the Trail Blazers. Although Lillard has separated himself as one of the league’s top guards, Portland has advanced to the Western Conference finals just once and has never reached the NBA Finals during Lillard’s time with the team.
Lillard, who turns 31 on July 15, is entering the first season of a four-year, $176 million supermax extension, which includes a player option in the final season in 2024-25.
▪ Pros: Lillard is among the NBA’s elite players, and he’s still in his prime. If the Heat somehow could hold on to Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler and trade for Lillard — a highly unlikely scenario — Miami would suddenly have the trio of stars it has been looking to put together since the Big 3 broke up in 2014.
Lillard, who has been voted to six All-NBA teams, averaged 28.8 points while shooting 45.1 percent from the field, 39.1 percent on threes, 92.8 percent from the foul line, 4.2 rebounds and 7.5 assists this past season.
Lillard, Golden State’s Stephen Curry and Brooklyn’s Kyrie Irving were the only three players in the league who averaged more than 25 points while shooting better than 45 percent from the field, 39 percent from three-point range and 90 percent from the free-throw line.
Lillard has averaged more than 25 points per game in six consecutive seasons. He would immediately improve a Heat offense that finished this past regular season with the NBA’s 18th-best offensive rating and averaged just 98 points per game in the playoffs.
In this year’s playoffs, Lillard played like the superstar he is. He averaged 34.3 points on 46.3 percent shooting from the field and 44.9 percent on threes, but the Trail Blazers were still eliminated in the first round.
▪ Cons: There aren’t many since he’s considered by most to be one of the NBA’s top players.
If nitpicking, one could point to Lillard entering a four-year extension that could pay him $48.8 million in 2024-25 when he’s 34.
Or the fact that the Trail Blazers have only finished with an above-average defense based on the defensive rating metric in two of his nine seasons with the team. Portland recorded the NBA’s second-worst defensive rating this past season.
But the pros definitely outweigh any cons in trading for Lillard, and it’s not even close.
▪ How would a trade look hypothetically? Even if Portland makes Lillard available, it’s difficult to envision the Heat finding a way to put together a competitive trade offer for the star guard without including Adebayo or Butler.
An offer built around Adebayo and Herro likely would get consideration from Portland. But whether the Heat would consider that — or whether Miami would have any appeal to Lillard if Adebayo isn’t on the team — are both very questionable.
CJ McCOLLUM, PORTLAND GUARD
▪ The background: Though no mainstream media member has reported the 29-year-old sharpshooter is definitely available in trade talks, longtime Blazers beat writer Jason Quick of The Athletic wrote that “I believe the likelihood of McCollum being traded this summer is probable, if not certain.”
Quick added this: “Because of his contract [$30.8 million in 2021-22, $33.3 million in 2022-23 and $35.8 million in 2023-24] and his talent, McCollum is the quickest and easiest way to improve — or at least shake up — the Blazers.
“Even [Portland general manager Neil] Olshey, who has long valued McCollum perhaps more than the rest of the league, seemed to soften his no-trade-CJ stance in his postseason address to the media, saying “nothing is ever off the table if it advances us closer to a championship.” In previous years, any suggestion of trading McCollum was met with scoffs from Olshey and proclamations like, “Why would I break up the best backcourt in the NBA?”
▪ Pros: McCollum is premier scorer who would instantly become the second-best shooting guard (offensively) in Heat history, behind Dwyane Wade and ahead of Eddie Jones and Steve Smith. McCollum has averaged between 20.8 and 23.1 points per game in each of the past six seasons, including the career-high 23.1 this past season, to go along with 4.7 assists and 3.9 rebounds.
He shot 40.2 percent on threes this past season and is a career 39.8 percent three-point shooter.
What’s more, he would be a good culture fit.
Quick noted that “internally in Portland, McCollum’s value goes beyond his three-point shooting and crafty scoring. He is an exceptional worker, is of high character, and has been essential in establishing and maintaining the Blazers’ lauded culture that is based on hard work and respect. And it is often overlooked that for much of the past six seasons he has served as the Blazers’ backup point guard. In the last three seasons, the Blazers offense ranked second, third and third.”
McCollum turns 30 in September and is still in his prime.
▪ Cons: He’s still owed $100 million over three seasons, and that’s a lot of money for a player who has never been an All-Star. As Quick noted, “while Damian Lillard has improved or evolved every season, McCollum has largely remained the same player, although in the first 13 games of this season he was playing the best defense of his career, leading the team in scoring, among the leaders in assist-to-turnover ratio, and on near-record 3-point shooting pace.
“But … it was 13 games. Then he broke his foot, missed two months, returned and was good, sometimes very good, but never great again. And most notably, McCollum never made an imprint on this year’s playoff series against Denver despite going against [Monte] Morris, Austin Rivers, Facundo Campazzo and Markus Howard.”
Players who he defended shot 46.1 percent against the 6-3 McCollum last season, compared with 45 percent overall.
▪ How would a trade look hypothetically? The Heat would need to exercise the team option on Goran Dragic (due $19.4 million next season) and send him — likely with Herro and Precious Achiuwa — to the Trail Blazers. That deal would work within salary cap rules. But Portland might get offers it considers more attractive, including a potential deal involving Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons.
BEN SIMMONS, PHILADELPHIA GUARD/FORWARD
▪ The background: When asked whether Simmons could be the point guard of a championship team after Philadelphia was eliminated in the second round of the playoffs, 76ers coach Doc Rivers replied: “I don’t know the answer to that.”
Discussions on Simmons’ future with the 76ers began in recent days and involved Simmons’ agent Rich Paul, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. But Wojnarowski reported that no-trade request was made by Simmons’ camp and the 76ers are committed to keeping Simmons as “a central piece of their franchise.”
Still, trade speculation involving Simmons has begun. ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith has insisted that the 76ers have made Simmons available in trade talks.
▪ Pros: This one is pretty clear. Simmons still holds major upside as a former No. 1 overall pick who turns 25 in July and has already been voted to three NBA All-Star Games.
The Heat needs a third star, and Simmons has the potential to be that.
While there are clear holes in his offensive game, he has still displayed the ability to consistently get to and score around the basket and averaged 6.9 assists per game this past regular season.
Simmons is also known as one of the league’s top defenders; he finished as the runner-up for the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year Award.
Among those advocating a Heat pursuit is former NBA forward Brian Scalabrine.
“The Miami Heat could fix him, and Erik Spoelstra as a coach could fix Ben Simmons,” Scalabrine said on his Sirius XM Radio show. “I don’t think a lot of organizations can fix him. I think the Miami Heat could fix Ben Simmons. If I’m Pat Riley, he would be my whale, and Erik Spoelstra is not a traditional coach. He’ll run wacky things for Ben Simmons.”
▪ Cons: Simmons is talented and physically gifted as a point forward who stands at 6-11 and 240 pounds, but there are still worrisome questions about his offensive game.
Simmons has yet to develop an outside shot four seasons into his NBA career. He shot just 10 of 31 (32.2 percent) from outside the paint and 3 of 10 on threes this past regular season, and did not hit a non-paint shot in the playoffs.
That doesn’t exactly make Simmons the best fit alongside the Heat’s current leading duo of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, who do not take many threes and score a lot of their points around the basket. A trio of Adebayo, Butler and Simmons would come with obvious spacing issues on the offensive end.
Simmons also shot just 34.2 percent from the free-throw line in the playoffs, which is the worst free-throw percentage in NBA playoff history for a player with at least 70 attempts, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The other challenge in acquiring Simmons? The four years and $147 million left on his contract.
▪ How would a trade look hypothetically? If Philadelphia decides to deal Simmons this offseason, the 76ers would need to take a significant amount of salary back because of Simmons’ contract. Despite his offensive struggles in the postseason, he likely would command at least one high-impact player in return.
With Simmons set to earn $33 million next season, the 76ers would need to take back about $27 million in salaries if it waited until August or later to trade him.
Assuming Adebayo and Butler are off the table, a Heat package of Herro ($4 million next season), Achiuwa ($2.7 million), KZ Okpala ($1.8 million) and Dragic ($19.4 million team option) would fulfill salary-cap requirements. The Heat would need to pick up the 2021-22 option in Dragic’s contract prior to the Aug. 1 deadline to include Dragic in any trade.
But this trade would further diminish the Heat’s three-point shooting and clog its salary cap for the next few years.
Philadelphia has better options, and considering the Heat’s offensive shortcomings, Miami likely does, too.
This story was originally published June 29, 2021 at 2:20 PM.
